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- Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
- Fannie Mae - Or May Not [view article]
- Prepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
- Ten Bear Market Phases, Current Edition [view article]
- The SEC's Envious of a Powerful Fed [view article]
- Historic Financial Collapse Underway? [view article]
- The FDIC: What Do Banks Really Do With Your Money? [view article]
- 25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound [view article]
- Fearful Day for Financials - Stop Trading! (7/14/08) [view article]
- Let the GSEs Fail [view article]
- Fannie And Freddie Only $25 Billion! Act Now While Supplies Last [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
loading ...Recent FNM Articles
- Ten Bear Market Phases, Current Edition
- The SEC's Envious of a Powerful Fed
- Prepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit
- The Worst U.S. Housing Market in a Generation Could Mean $1 Trillion in Writedowns
- The FDIC: What Do Banks Really Do With Your Money?
- Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle
- Bank Bailouts or Bull?
- Fannie And Freddie Only $25 Billion! Act Now While Supplies Last
- 25 Ways to Tell a Banking System Is Unsound
- Let the GSEs Fail
- Full List of Articles »
Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
But,but ,the government says most all is ok . Now, how could anyone ever,ever refute government drivel ? ReplyBust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
A rocky road ahead? Could be fun! Attitude, attitude, attitude. ReplyBust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
Excellent post. On strength of the dollar issue. Forty years ago with the dollar being devalued, out products would be selling like hot cakes. The problem is now we have few products since we are a service economy ie. jobs at McDonald's. We need a change in our government policies and direction. We should have the Apollo Project for Energy to produce jobs and products to sell the world.Reply
Call Me
LASER
Fannie Mae - Or May Not [view article]
bouce, that's what I'm calling it. BSC $50 to $3 to $10, Fannie $13 to $6 to $16 in approximately the same time frame and for similar reasons. I'm still upset for missing the best trade of the year (long BSC at $3). I would like to hear some short-term trading advice on FNM. Standing on the sidelines isn't an option. ReplyPrepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
I go a little further. I suspect that gold is a better hedge. Avoid TIPs and expect that at some point we will see a reversal from inflation to deflation as consumers are unable to cope with the interest rate play. What I fear is the collapse of the currency, or what amounts to the same, it non convertibility to other currency or goods or anything. It is not impossible, so think it over. ReplyCall Me
LASER
Fannie Mae - Or May Not [view article]
Can we translate this banter into a quantifiable market advice. If everyone agrees that Fannie and Freddie will survive no matter how ugly their balance sheet is or highly leveraged they are, why not buy at an 85% haircut. There is absolutely no risk-reward in shorting the stock at this point to know that ultimately the government throw them any life line, necessary or not. However to buy now would be insane. Fannie already experienced the BSC ReplyTen Bear Market Phases, Current Edition [view article]
Interesting analysis of the decline, but I think you miss the damage done to the psychological welfare of those participants who did not understand the game. They are the innocents who believe the world is free of flaws, flees and thieves. They are the gullible investors who have been told buy/hold is a test of virility and manliness. The shock of finding out they have been had is very destructive. Few of them return to the market, or if do return it is largely indexes. This is the hidden cost of screwing investors. ReplyBust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
Excellent post. ReplyThe SEC's Envious of a Powerful Fed [view article]
I am inclined to the opinion that these decision-making processes (supervision and regulation) should lie entirely with the Board of Governors, and that the Board should be reconstituted to include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Comptroller of the Currency, the Chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, the Director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, and the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. ReplyTen Bear Market Phases, Current Edition [view article]
I keep reading all you gloom and doomers, but for the life of me, I haven't come across anyone who has mentioned the obvious.First, somebody sold the houses to the present occupants that are now facing foreclosed and obviously at a good price. They presumeably still have the money/credit and have the ability to do something stimulative with it. You know the old velocity of money trick.
Second, all the folks that are walking away from their mortgages have to live somewhere. So if supply and demand holds shouldn't rents be bolstered significantly by demand for rental housing? If that is true, shouldn't these increased rents form a base under the housing market?
There is so much psychology involved here-as usual. What our economy needs-and what it hasn't had for a very long time - are leaders who espouse greatness, ambition, and positivenes rather than the folks who think that the only way to stay in power is to use the fear factor. Reply
The SEC's Envious of a Powerful Fed [view article]
The music has just gotten faster in the musical chairs game. You have a party that has consolidated power and has demonstrated it can successfully throw it's weight around to anybody in this country. Socialism for the rich is not a powerful enough description of the government and party in power (Dems). It's becoming Fascist.Note, Adolph Hitler appeared benevolent to all until he first consolidated power under the Nazis, it was all for the good of the people and the stupid masses gobbled up the propoganda.
Then, he assasinated political adversaries. In our country this would be political assasination, we are already seeing big signs of this with opposing party members made to look incompetent and shown the door.
The stage afterward is fleecing of the masses. In Adolph's day, it was the Jews that were named the bogeyman and fleecing commenced to cover deficit shortfalls to accelerate the power of the police state.
The last stage is of course a Gestapo and direct confiscations of property because every law created by the party power means the entire citizenships breaks the law in any action they take. People turned in Jews and were rewarded and the Fascists had a 'legal' right to confiscate private property. The citizens gobbled up the Jew bogeyman propoganda, an easy scapegoat for there 40 years of economic stupidities. We are seeing 25 years of our economic stupidies and are going the EXACT SAME ROUTE.
Fascism still gives some the illusion your private enterprise is free when it no longer is, the State can confiscate it at will, manipulate entire sectors of an economy and force the bogeyman to cough up. Right now, there is no named bogeyman besides 'global warming' and attempted Co2 tax scams. Since the American public at large has caught on, there will soon to be a group within the country that is named the bogeyman for fleecing, because the middle class Americans are catching on that devalued currency and deficits are the invisible tax to pay for beaucratic chronie capatalism and lack of innovation that consistently propels a free society.
Don't believe me about Fascism? The SEC spreading rumors crap, Sheila Bane stating how they will now pay attention to blogs to prevent 'misinformation' Chris Dodd stating to WSJ that he expects something in return for a bailout shouldered by the taxpayers! This kind of crap is exactly what occured in pre-WWII Germany and recently in Venezuela. This information should help you protect your wealth my friends, that is why I post it.
Good luck to you all, I believe we will have a peaceful political revolution in a few years and the wealth will come back from the East to the West again. Next sustained Bull market is in 2013 from my best guess and connection of hundreds of variables, political and economic. Reply
Prepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
Smart analytic article, even smarter comments. Thanks gentleman. ReplyPrepare To Profit from the U.S. $1 Trillion Budget Deficit [view article]
This is a can't-lose proposition, but you have to be willing to absorb large mark-to-market losses along the way and keep adding to the position any time 10-year yields are below 4%. Don't use too much leverage and just stick with it. Supply and demand tells the story; however robust you think central bank demand will be, there is no way it can keep pace with that kind of supply - unless a galactic flood of dollars is handed out by the Fed (against what collateral? Mortgages, I guess) to people willing to buy these securities. Which is why the pair trade is long gold.The Treasury's balance sheet is looking more like those of the individuals comprising the country - assets with weakening earning power and a boatload of increasingly expensive debt that bought not greater productive capacity but baubles, trinkets, and a regrettable night on the town. The Fed's is even uglier; it consists largely of stuff no one else wants.
The working assumption should be that recessions and inflationary conditions, in some combination, will dominate for the next 5-7 years, just as they did in the 1970s. That suggests both that the market will raise interest rates in that time and that the Fed will eventually be forced to raise them much farther still to keep a lid on prices. All factors are in your favour. Only irrational (and highly inflationary) foreign central bank action can forestall gains, and then not indefinitely - there is a limit to how much money those banks can print to buy Treasuries, and in any case you did pair this trade with gold, right? Reply
Ten Bear Market Phases, Current Edition [view article]
Well done.Long term support at 10800+ on Indu makes an attractive entry point but fraught with risk. Reply
Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle [view article]
Power on, Fred. And speaking of getting to systemic causes, does anyone other than Mr. Paulson really want to extend to the "Federal" Reserve, assiduously serving the private banking elite for over 95 years, the tools and authority to "clean up" the mess they've made? Reply