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The Case For Fannie Mae: Unpacking The Motions For Summary Judgment
- Numerous plaintiffs have filed suits challenging the lawfulness of the Sweep Amendment which requires Fannie Mae to quarterly transfer its net worth to the US Treasury.
- This article is a summary of the primary legal arguments from both sides in the motions to dismiss and motions for summary judgment in cases filed by Perry Capital and Fairholme.
- After reviewing 556 pages of complaint and briefs, the plaintiffs have the stronger arguments and should win the motions.
Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac: The Bill Ackman Perspective And Huge Return Potential
- What to do with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is an extremely polarizing and stratified topic in Washington.
- Pershing Square's Bill Ackman has concluded, with extensive research to support it, that a private entity isn't viable without a significant increase in cost to insure MBS.
- Even with the dilutive effect of exercising warrants, the Government stands to rake in approximately $600 billion on $190 billion invested. Estimated fair market value of $23-$47 a share.
- Lawsuits are progressing through the courts. Positive strides for the investors, but far from winning their freedom from the government.
- $5.4 billion in dividends from the Second Quarter, 2014 will be paid to the U.S. Treasury.
- Expect increased regulations on GSEs and all financial companies.
- Betting on Fannie and Freddie remain a high risk/high reward investment.
Fannie Mae Q2 Earnings Down, But Credit Quality Up
Blackstone Plan Proves Value Was Taken By Treasury
- Treasury received Blackstone's recapitalization plan.
- Recap plan proves that the equity shares had some value.
- The 3rd Amendment of the PSPA was designed to destroy value.
- Mario Ugoletti's sworn testimony is contradictory to this document.
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac: A Risk Worth Taking
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac seem much more likely to remain operational, as governmental regulators have indicated that they have no superior alternative.
- The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac investor lawsuit against the Treasury Department is already strong, and seems even more promising as it attracts national attention and rallies prominent lawyers, activists.
- Our self-learning algorithm has a strong bullish signal for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the 3-month and 1-year time horizons.
- Their diminishing risk and huge potential make Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac attractive investments.
- Proposed insurer rules by the FHFA help to ensure that the government will not need to bail out the mortgage giant.
- The confirmation of Julian Castro as HUD Director has depressed the shares lately, but efforts to reform the GSEs do not have the political backing to do much harm.
- Reaffirm my previous price target of $14 per share on higher G-Fees and a recovering housing market.
Fannie Mae Has Adequate Capital To Be Released From Conservatorship
- Evidence seems to suggest that the GSEs can exit Conservatorship as-is.
- Existing legislation provides capital requirements.
- Fannie Mae may have enough capital for release from government control.
- Fannie and Freddie are the best solution for low-cost American home ownership.
- Nobody will question the legitimacy of the warrants until the third amendment is reversed.
Carl Icahn Joins The Fannie Mae Common Stock Gang, Should You?
- Carl Icahn is the newest investor in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae and joins investors such as Bruce Berkowitz and Bill Ackman.
- The common stock becomes increasingly popular with high-profile investors.
- Fannie Mae's stock price has shown great resilience after extreme levels of volatility in March.
Fannie Mae: Icahn And Ackman Actually Agree On Something
- Shares could be worth $14 each on current fee structure.
- Potential for higher fees mean value could be as high as $23 to $47 per share.
- Short-term catalysts including an end to the Net Worth Sweep or re-listing could boost shares.
- The Third Amendment Net Worth Sweep is illegal.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have paid back more than they borrowed.
- The largest investor in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the American taxpayer.
- The largest beneficiary of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is the American taxpayer.
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saved America during the crisis and are the best solution going forward.
Solutions For Fannie And Freddie's Future, But Profits Still Go To The Government
- No timeline for a resolution will continue to push all profits to federal government.
- Congress halts efforts on bills for mid-term elections.
- 20 lawsuits continue with no end in sight.
- Investor hopes spur the buying and selling.
- Fannie Mae reported $5.3 billion in income yet pays Treasury $5.7 billion in dividends.
- Freddie Mac reported $4.0 billion in income yet pays Treasury $4.5 billion in dividends.
- Both stocks have traded above $1.00 per share for over a year and should re-list.
- The Federal Housing Finance Authority is failing in their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders if they don not permit re-listing.
- Retail investors need institutional support to free the GSEs from Treasury's vampire-like gripe and allow them to recapitalize and rebuild shareholder value.
- Fannie Mae remains a speculative equity investment with a massively tilted risk/reward ratio.
- The Johnson-Crapo draft bill is only in the early stages and the legislative process is already crumbling.
- Dissent among Senate committee members makes success of the reform bill unlikely.
- Winding down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac does not make economic sense.
Fannie Mae Reports $5.3 Billion Profit In 1st Quarter Of 2014
- Total Comprehensive Income of $5.7 Billion for the 1st Quarter.
- Diluted Pro Forma EPS of $0.93.
- Bill Ackman values these shares up to $47.
- In an absolute worst case scenario Fannie and Freddie need $190 billion.
- Treasury has swept more than $200 billion for deficit reduction.
- Fannie and Freddie employees cannot participate in reform.
Fri, Aug. 29, 2:01 AM
- Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has asked Judge Jed Rakoff to dismiss the jury verdict which found its Countrywide unit guilty of past mortgage fraud that resulted in a $1.3B penalty.
- Known as the "hustle" case, the lawsuit accuses BofA of selling toxic mortgages to Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC), although the bank argues that the evidence at the trial does not support the claims.
- The motion comes just one week after BofA agreed to a record $16.7B settlement with the U.S. government to settle charges over its role in mortgages leading up to the financial crisis.
Thu, Aug. 28, 10:55 AM
- “We are focused on making responsible real estate decisions to ensure the wise use of resources," says a Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA -0.3%) spokesperson of the company's plans to sell it's sprawling headquarters as part of a consolidation of its 5 D.C. offices into a single leased office building.
- Previously: Fannie Mae eyeing return to the Big Board?
Wed, Aug. 27, 10:27 AM| 10 Comments
Mon, Aug. 18, 1:23 PM
- Assume, says John Carney, Bill Ackman and other investment managers win their legal battle against the government over Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA -1%) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC -0.8%). At that point, we go back to the bailout agreements under which both would still be obligated to pay a 10% dividend. Also, both would need to pay a commitment fee of, say, one-half to one percent, an amount they would struggle to be able to afford.
- The result is the two would have an even tougher time building a capital buffer, meaning a time frame of years before their earnings power could accrue to holders of either the preferred or common stock.
- Previously: Carney: Fannie and Freddie investors should surrender
Fri, Aug. 15, 3:58 AM
- Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has sued the U.S. government, claiming that its stripping of Fannie Mae's (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac's (OTCQB:FMCC) profit illegally short changes investors in the mortgage companies' common stock.
- Hedge funds have previously sued the government over the two, although most of those lawsuits focused on the companies' preferred stock.
- Pershing is accusing the government's "brazen" practice since 2012 of funneling virtually all profit from Fannie and Freddie to the U.S. Treasury Department.
- Previously: Ackman reportedly leading another suit over GSEs
Thu, Aug. 14, 3:50 PM
- The GSEs have their tails in the air on a report shareholders - led by Bill Ackman's Pershing Square - plan tomorrow to file the latest in a string of lawsuits against the government for requisitioning the profits of the two, reports The Street's Dan Freed.
- Pershing Square is by far the largest non-government owner of common stock of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA +3.8%) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC +4.5%), and numerous individual investors will join the suit. Another large holder - Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital - has much of its stake tied up in the preferred shares of the companies.
Mon, Aug. 11, 3:37 PM
- Private investors argue the government's share of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA -1.2%) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC -1.2%) profits should be limited to the 10% dividend on its preferred stake in the GSEs. The difference between this amount and the so-called sweep amounted to tens of billions last year - hence the attention and the suits, writes John Carney.
- With tax benefits and legal settlements winding down, Frannie reported far smaller profits in Q2, making the difference between the sweep and the 10% dividend negligible. In the case of Freddie, in fact, it could be argued the sweep is less than what it would have paid on the 10% dividend plus some sort of commitment fee on its credit line.
- The difference is wider at Fannie Mae, but "sweep or no sweep, there is close to nothing left over for investors in either Fannie or Freddie," says Carney.
Fri, Jul. 11, 7:15 AM
- A check of the mortgage insurers the morning after the FHFA released the proposed Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs) finds Radian (RDN) lower by 2.8%, MGIC (MTG) by 2.6%, and no action in Genworth (GNW), Essent Group (ESNT), and NMI Holdings (NMIH). The revised PMIERs would require higher capital standards on the mortgage insurers Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) do business with.
- The new rules are open for comment until September 8, and Radian expects to give the FHFA an earful, including noting the new capital requirements "are more onerous than the company's historical default experience suggests would be needed to withstand a severe stress event." The proposed PMIERs, says Radian, are also not consistent with the FHFA's goal of expanding access to mortgage credit by boosting the role of private capital in the mortgage market.
- Radian also notes it is likely to be January 2017 before compliance with any new rules would be required.
Tue, Jul. 1, 10:39 AM
- Noting some nonbank servicers use short-term funding to buy MSRs which may only pay off after a lot of long-term work the Office of Inspector General says the practice can jeopardize not just the companies' operations, but also Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) which guarantee the loans.
- The report notes nonbank servicers held 17% of he MSR market at the end of 2013, up from 9% a year earlier, and the boosted share is testing their ability to handle the loans. No particular servicer is named in the report, but those in the industry include Ocwen (OCN -1.9%), Nationstar (NSM -2.6%), Walter Investment (WAC -0.8%), New Residential (NRZ +0.3%), Home Loan Serviing (HLSS +0.9%), and PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI +0.5%).
- The report cites one example in which the GSEs found a servicer didn't have sufficient infrastructure to manage its MSRs and also breached minimum capital requirements.
- NY's Ben Lawsky, of course, has put the kibbosh on transfers of servicing rights from the banks to the nonbank players until his concerns over servicing practices are satisfied.
Fri, Jun. 20, 2:00 AM
- Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) will pay $99.5M to settle a lawsuit which accused the bank of selling sour mortgages to Freddie Mac (FMCC). The case is one of two lawsuits filed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency against RBS.
- This also marks the 15th mortgage security settlement since 2011 won by the FHFA, on behalf of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac.
Fri, Jun. 13, 3:55 PM
- “Even if truly rehabilitating the GSEs were possible, recapitalizing them adequately would take at least twenty years,” says Mary Miller, Treasury's undersecretary for domestic finance. “During these 20 years, the taxpayer would remain at risk of having to bailout the GSEs during another downturn."
- Calling the current system - where the majority of housing credit is backstopped by taxpayers - "unacceptable" and "an unsound business model," Miller reiterates the administration's position that Fannie (FNMA -1.4%) and Freddie (FMCC -1.9%) be wound down. "Only legislation can protect taxpayers by responsibly winding down the GSEs and replacing them with a system where a government guarantee is transparent and explicitly priced.”
Mon, Jun. 9, 12:58 PM
- Those who say it is a good time to sell a house increased to 43%, a new all-time high, says Fannie Mae (FNMA -0.4%) in its May National Housing Survey. Those who say it's a good time to buy dipped a bit to 68%.
- "Consumers’ lukewarm income expectations and reticence about the economy seem to be holding back housing demand," says Fannie chief economist Doug Duncan. "This year’s spring and summer home buying season has gotten off to a slow start, even as mortgage rates have trended lower over the past two months ... The rebound in home sales will likely be too modest to pull sales for all of 2014 ahead of last year."
- Speaking to Duncan's remarks: Those who say their household income is significantly higher than a year ago fell four points to 21%.
- Homebuilder ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB
Thu, Jun. 5, 4:36 PM
- The FHFA is requesting mortgage industry comment on whether Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) should raise "guarantee" fees charged to lenders. These fees are typically passed along to borrowers, but the FHFA could look to offset that by making credit more readily available to lesser qualified borrowers as well as subsidizing the cost of the fee in other ways.
- The FHFA policy on fees - that they would gradually rise throughout 2014 - changed abruptly as Ed DeMarco was replaced at the top with Mel Watt earlier this year.
Tue, Jun. 3, 1:54 AM
- Massachusetts has sued Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), saying they violate state law by blocking foreclosure buyback programs.
- Buyback programs allow a non-profit organization to purchase a foreclosed home and then resell it back to the original owner at a more reasonable price.
- Massachusetts passed a law in 2012 prohibiting creditors from blocking such programs, although Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have failed to comply.
Tue, May. 20, 11:01 AM
- Perhaps sensitive over the press bruising he's taken for being the puppetmaster behind government investigations of Herbalife, maybe look for Bill Ackman to try and stay out of the spotlight on Fannie Mae (FNMA +2.1%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC +2.1%), writes Dan Freed.
- Ignoring for the moment Ackman's 110-page slide presentation on the GSEs at Ira Sohn two weeks ago, a source close to the hedge funder says don't expect a big public campaign a la Herbalife or Allergan. While Bruce Berkowitz has publicly offered his policy assistance over Frannie to the government and Blackstone has done so privately, Ackman's camp believes D.C. has little interest in the advice of hedge funds in this instance.
- For anyone who heard at least snippets of Ackman at Ira Sohn, we'll file this story under "believe it when we see it."
Fri, May. 16, 3:55 PM
- “I don’t lay awake at night worrying about what’s fair to the shareholders,” says FHFA boss Mel Watt in an interview to be aired on Sunday. "There would be no Fannie (FNMA -1.8%) or Freddie (FMCC -1.2%) but for the taxpayers."
- Watt also notes the he had no role in altering the bailout agreements to allow for the continuous taking of all GSEs profits by Treasury. “I don’t know whether I would have thought differently had I been there, but I don’t have that luxury ... It’s an arrangement that I’m comfortable operating under.”
FNMA vs. ETF Alternatives
Fannie Mae is a government-sponsored enterprise that was chartered by Congress in 1938 to support liquidity, stability and affordability in the secondary mortgage market, where existing mortgage-related assets are purchased and sold.
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