- President Obama has changed his message on GSE Reform.
- Fannie and Freddie Have Paid Back Taxpayers.
- The Net Benefit of Fannie and Freddie is Positive for Taxpayers.
- Clifford Rossi has proposed a genius capitalization transaction that hasn't been publicly considered.
- The sale of preferred stock, to avoid a fifth amendment takings, would flow through to Fannie and Freddie to fully recapitalize them.
- At 5%, the businesses make over $3 per share for common shareholders, and at 15x the businesses are worth $46 right now.
- Ackman just won a legal battle since the judge ruled against the government, which argued the case had been consolidated with those involuntarily dismissed.
Why A Fannie And Freddie Wind Down Could Benefit Shareholders
- Wind down could mean growth of the business.
- Wind down could mean ending the conservatorship.
- Taxpayers have been repaid.
- U.S. District Court decision was only an action toward resolution in 2014.
- FHFA directed F&F to begin refunding the National Affordable Housing Trust Fund.
- 2015 will see Republicans control both Houses, but still differ with the Administration.
- Recommendation: Put your money to work in the market now.
- RBS settlement of $7.7 billion could add to GSE profits.
- Fannie and Freddie will jump-start lending to marginal home buyers.
- News Stories reporting that Fannie and Freddie have created profits for taxpayers.
Fannie And Freddie: Current Plans Could Affect Iowa Pensions
- IPERS holds $1 billion in GSE Mortgage Securities.
- Some GSE reform plans would "bifurcate" the securities market.
- Treasury and FHFA actions call their motives into question.
- Documents produced in discovery by the Defendant are now being used by the Plaintiff against the defendant. This suggests that discovery is unearthing valuable documents for the Plaintiff.
- If 100% of the profits of Fannie and Freddie continue go to the US Treasury in perpetuity, bankruptcies and receiverships can be less lucrative for creditors than conservatorships.
- Although the Iowa case isn't looking good and Judge Royce Lamberth set a precedent, the end-game and over half of my portfolio is to be long Fannie and Freddie.
- The government's proposed defense is more logical and understandable than the Plaintiff and this perpetuates an untenable situation, namely conservatorship.
Fannie And Freddie: Everyone Says Read The Statute
- Judge Pratt asks whether he should just "Read the Statute."
- The Plaintiffs say this is music to their ears.
- Former HERA technical advisor says statute is not being followed.
Director Watt Begins To Exercise His Administrative Authority
- Director Watt exercised his power under HERA.
- Increased spending and looser mortgage standards require capital.
- Expect FHFA to announce an end to the Net Worth Sweep.
Fannie And Freddie Shareholders Follow Director Watt To Miami
- FHFA came to Miami to promote HARP.
- Investors in Fannie and Freddie also came to Miami.
- Significant value can be gained by releasing the GSEs from conservatorship.
- The government is following the rule of law if you look at things this way. By 2017, a takings will occur if things do not change.
- The third amendment net worth sweep ensures that the government is paid back principle plus interest the fastest.
- The sweep is still an agreement to change the terms of a loan, not a new security. The original loan payback ceiling of principle plus interest still exists.
- Things will change or there will be a fourth amendment. The way things are going, a fourth amendment will come and the Enterprises will rebuild private capital starting in 2017.
Fannie And Freddie: Director Watt Should Exercise His Executive Powers
- Director Watt can use his executive powers to end the Net Worth Sweep.
- Director Watt does not report to the U.S. Treasury.
- Ending the Net Worth Sweep will eventually end the conservatorship.
Fannie Mae: Let's Not End The Conservatorship Just Yet
- With the pending change in Congressional leadership, some politicians and pundits have begun a push to end FHFA’s conservatorship of Fannie.
- Returning Fannie to the shareholders by ending the conservatorship has a strong intuitive appeal.
- Ending the conservatorship without first resolving the value destroying elements of the Restated PSPA, will only help the Government by delaying resolution of the shareholder suits.
Fannie And Freddie: FHFA Action Could Permanently Strengthen The Housing Market
- FHFA action is a win-win for taxpayers, homeowners, and shareholders.
- Analysts target $18 to $50 for post-conservatorship share values.
- Treasury could receive a windfall from recapitalized GSEs.
- Since the Lamberth dismissal, the short interest in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has been skyrocketing.
- Investors short stock when they have strong conviction that the stock is overvalued and will fall.
- Combined the short interest is now over $140M, up from $40M a month before, increasing by roughly $100M.
Fannie And Freddie: Financial Disclosures Needed On Guarantee Fee Assets
- The total value of guarantee fee assets should be hedged.
- The total value of guarantee fee exposure should be disclosed.
- Mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) are comparable to guarantee fees.
- MSRs are carried at fair value under GAAP.
- Bob Corker would rather be run over by a train than speak with shareholders.
Fannie Mae: The Rafter/Pershing Square Voluntary Dismissal Has No Bearing On The Perry Capital Appeal
- On October 31, 2014, the Rafter, Rattien and Pershing Square plaintiffs voluntarily dismissed litigation against the government regarding Fannie Mae.
- The Rafter litigation had two counts: A takings claim and a derivative shareholder claim.
- Neither claim has any bearing on the Perry Capital Appeal.
Fannie Mae: A Primer To Senior Preferred Shares And Warrants
- The Fannie Mae conservatorship, and Treasury’s Senior Preferred Shares and Warrant, are governed by seven documents.
- These documents are a credit to the legal scriveners’ art, making the moderately complex obscure to the lay reader.
- This article will translate from the legalese the provisions that holders of Fannie stock will want to know.
Oct. 2, 2014, 9:59 AM
- The 52-page ruling from U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth "meticulously demolishes" every argument made by investors claiming Treasury and the FHFA acted illegally when altering Fannie Mae's (OTCQB:FNMA -10%) and Freddie Mac's (OTCQB:FMCC -7.3%) bailout agreement in 2012.
- The new agreement, says Lamberth, is clearly within the bounds of authority Congress granted in 2008 when passing a law overhauling oversight of the GSEs.
- Yes, Lamberth's ruling doesn't directly affect the dozens of other pending lawsuits, but now plaintiff's attorneys will have to start out explaining how Lamberth got things wrong.
- Previously: Fannie and Freddie plunge after investor lawsuit dismissed
Oct. 1, 2014, 9:46 AM| 15 Comments
Oct. 1, 2014, 4:41 AM
- A group of Wall Street investors lost their legal challenges yesterday over the treatment of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) shareholders after their bailout in 2008.
- The investors sued for breach of contract over allegedly promised dividends and liquidation preferences, and what they called an illegal “taking” of their profits by the U.S. Treasury.
- The lawsuits are among the first of almost 20 related cases to be decided.
Sep. 24, 2014, 3:03 PM| 1 Comment
Aug. 29, 2014, 2:01 AM
- Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has asked Judge Jed Rakoff to dismiss the jury verdict which found its Countrywide unit guilty of past mortgage fraud that resulted in a $1.3B penalty.
- Known as the "hustle" case, the lawsuit accuses BofA of selling toxic mortgages to Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC), although the bank argues that the evidence at the trial does not support the claims.
- The motion comes just one week after BofA agreed to a record $16.7B settlement with the U.S. government to settle charges over its role in mortgages leading up to the financial crisis.
Aug. 28, 2014, 10:55 AM
- “We are focused on making responsible real estate decisions to ensure the wise use of resources," says a Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA -0.3%) spokesperson of the company's plans to sell it's sprawling headquarters as part of a consolidation of its 5 D.C. offices into a single leased office building.
- Previously: Fannie Mae eyeing return to the Big Board?
Aug. 27, 2014, 10:27 AM| 10 Comments
Aug. 18, 2014, 1:23 PM
- Assume, says John Carney, Bill Ackman and other investment managers win their legal battle against the government over Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA -1%) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC -0.8%). At that point, we go back to the bailout agreements under which both would still be obligated to pay a 10% dividend. Also, both would need to pay a commitment fee of, say, one-half to one percent, an amount they would struggle to be able to afford.
- The result is the two would have an even tougher time building a capital buffer, meaning a time frame of years before their earnings power could accrue to holders of either the preferred or common stock.
- Previously: Carney: Fannie and Freddie investors should surrender
Aug. 15, 2014, 3:58 AM
- Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has sued the U.S. government, claiming that its stripping of Fannie Mae's (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac's (OTCQB:FMCC) profit illegally short changes investors in the mortgage companies' common stock.
- Hedge funds have previously sued the government over the two, although most of those lawsuits focused on the companies' preferred stock.
- Pershing is accusing the government's "brazen" practice since 2012 of funneling virtually all profit from Fannie and Freddie to the U.S. Treasury Department.
- Previously: Ackman reportedly leading another suit over GSEs
Aug. 14, 2014, 3:50 PM
- The GSEs have their tails in the air on a report shareholders - led by Bill Ackman's Pershing Square - plan tomorrow to file the latest in a string of lawsuits against the government for requisitioning the profits of the two, reports The Street's Dan Freed.
- Pershing Square is by far the largest non-government owner of common stock of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA +3.8%) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC +4.5%), and numerous individual investors will join the suit. Another large holder - Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital - has much of its stake tied up in the preferred shares of the companies.
Aug. 11, 2014, 3:37 PM
- Private investors argue the government's share of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA -1.2%) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC -1.2%) profits should be limited to the 10% dividend on its preferred stake in the GSEs. The difference between this amount and the so-called sweep amounted to tens of billions last year - hence the attention and the suits, writes John Carney.
- With tax benefits and legal settlements winding down, Frannie reported far smaller profits in Q2, making the difference between the sweep and the 10% dividend negligible. In the case of Freddie, in fact, it could be argued the sweep is less than what it would have paid on the 10% dividend plus some sort of commitment fee on its credit line.
- The difference is wider at Fannie Mae, but "sweep or no sweep, there is close to nothing left over for investors in either Fannie or Freddie," says Carney.
Jul. 11, 2014, 7:15 AM
- A check of the mortgage insurers the morning after the FHFA released the proposed Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs) finds Radian (RDN) lower by 2.8%, MGIC (MTG) by 2.6%, and no action in Genworth (GNW), Essent Group (ESNT), and NMI Holdings (NMIH). The revised PMIERs would require higher capital standards on the mortgage insurers Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) do business with.
- The new rules are open for comment until September 8, and Radian expects to give the FHFA an earful, including noting the new capital requirements "are more onerous than the company's historical default experience suggests would be needed to withstand a severe stress event." The proposed PMIERs, says Radian, are also not consistent with the FHFA's goal of expanding access to mortgage credit by boosting the role of private capital in the mortgage market.
- Radian also notes it is likely to be January 2017 before compliance with any new rules would be required.
Jul. 1, 2014, 10:39 AM
- Noting some nonbank servicers use short-term funding to buy MSRs which may only pay off after a lot of long-term work the Office of Inspector General says the practice can jeopardize not just the companies' operations, but also Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) which guarantee the loans.
- The report notes nonbank servicers held 17% of he MSR market at the end of 2013, up from 9% a year earlier, and the boosted share is testing their ability to handle the loans. No particular servicer is named in the report, but those in the industry include Ocwen (OCN -1.9%), Nationstar (NSM -2.6%), Walter Investment (WAC -0.8%), New Residential (NRZ +0.3%), Home Loan Serviing (HLSS +0.9%), and PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI +0.5%).
- The report cites one example in which the GSEs found a servicer didn't have sufficient infrastructure to manage its MSRs and also breached minimum capital requirements.
- NY's Ben Lawsky, of course, has put the kibbosh on transfers of servicing rights from the banks to the nonbank players until his concerns over servicing practices are satisfied.
Jun. 20, 2014, 2:00 AM
- Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) will pay $99.5M to settle a lawsuit which accused the bank of selling sour mortgages to Freddie Mac (FMCC). The case is one of two lawsuits filed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency against RBS.
- This also marks the 15th mortgage security settlement since 2011 won by the FHFA, on behalf of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac.
Jun. 13, 2014, 3:55 PM
- “Even if truly rehabilitating the GSEs were possible, recapitalizing them adequately would take at least twenty years,” says Mary Miller, Treasury's undersecretary for domestic finance. “During these 20 years, the taxpayer would remain at risk of having to bailout the GSEs during another downturn."
- Calling the current system - where the majority of housing credit is backstopped by taxpayers - "unacceptable" and "an unsound business model," Miller reiterates the administration's position that Fannie (FNMA -1.4%) and Freddie (FMCC -1.9%) be wound down. "Only legislation can protect taxpayers by responsibly winding down the GSEs and replacing them with a system where a government guarantee is transparent and explicitly priced.”
Jun. 9, 2014, 12:58 PM
- Those who say it is a good time to sell a house increased to 43%, a new all-time high, says Fannie Mae (FNMA -0.4%) in its May National Housing Survey. Those who say it's a good time to buy dipped a bit to 68%.
- "Consumers’ lukewarm income expectations and reticence about the economy seem to be holding back housing demand," says Fannie chief economist Doug Duncan. "This year’s spring and summer home buying season has gotten off to a slow start, even as mortgage rates have trended lower over the past two months ... The rebound in home sales will likely be too modest to pull sales for all of 2014 ahead of last year."
- Speaking to Duncan's remarks: Those who say their household income is significantly higher than a year ago fell four points to 21%.
- Homebuilder ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB
FNMA vs. ETF Alternatives
Fannie Mae is a government-sponsored enterprise that was chartered by Congress in 1938 to support liquidity, stability and affordability in the secondary mortgage market, where existing mortgage-related assets are purchased and sold.
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