Nov. 19, 2014, 11:50 AM
- "Everyone agrees that conservatorship cannot continue forever," says Senator Tim Johnson in prepared remarks for a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the GSEs. "If Congress cannot agree on a smooth, more certain path forward, I urge you, (FHFA) Director Watt, to engage the Treasury Department in talks to end the conservatorship.”
- Watt: "Conservatorship cannot, should not be a permanent state."
- Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA +10.6%), Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC +9%)
Nov. 14, 2014, 12:37 PM
- Fairlight Capital disagrees with a number of John Carney's assumptions - the sum of which led to essentially a zero valuation for the common stock of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA). Applying what it believes to be a conservative earnings growth rate and a 0% commitment fee on the senior preferred stock, Fairlight sees a current value of $2.81 per share.
- More importantly, says Fairlight, Carney assumes a 5% regulatory capital level. Carney makes the mistake of comparing that to other financial institutions, says Fairlight, forgetting Fannie would be an insurer, not a bank - a 2.5% capital level should be adequate.
- Assuming that and also assuming the government would allow the redemption or refinancing of the senior preferred stock leads to a valuation of $7.11 per share, even under very conservative earnings growth rates, concludes Fairlight.
- Previously: Carney at it again on Fannie Mae
Nov. 10, 2014, 8:18 AM
- All this talk of the legal tussle between investors and the government over the profit sweep is obscuring the basic math on Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA), writes John Carney. Extrapolating the last couple of quarters of income would bring annual operating earnings to about $14.8B, says Carney. With the government essentially owning about 80% of Fannie common (through warrants), this leaves private shareholders with a roughly 20% stake.
- What would the stock be worth were the courts to rule the sweep illegal? At that point, says Carney, the original bailout terms would be restored, requiring Fannie to pay a 10% dividend on the government's $117B preferred stake plus a commitment fee on its undrawn backstop - in all, $12.6B per year.
- If Fannie generates $2.2B per year in excess of that, and even assuming an increase in earnings each year, it would take decades to pay back the government and build capital to necessary levels. Only at that time would common shareholders see any value flowing to them, and discounting back produces a stock valuation of about $877M, or $175M to private investors given the government's 80% stake - roughly $0.15 per share. And don't forget the $35B face value in junior preferred also sitting ahead of common shareholders. It leaves the common with a fundamental value of about zero.
- Shares -1.75% premarket
Nov. 6, 2014, 8:26 AM| 12 Comments
Nov. 6, 2014, 8:03 AM
Oct. 21, 2014, 4:46 AM
- The nation’s chief housing regulator, Mel Watt, announced a new program Monday which will allow more home-buyers to get loans at lower rates and with much smaller down payments.
- The program will also attempt to reassure banks that have had to pay tens of billions of dollars to settle legal cases arising from the housing boom and bust and buy back bad loans sold to Fannie (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie (OTCQB:FMCC).
- "We know this issue has contributed to lenders’ imposing credit overlays that drive up the cost of lending,” announced Watt.
Oct. 17, 2014, 12:20 PM
- One of the key issues serving as a road block to mortgage lending is banker fear over having any loans put back to them by the GSEs at any time - even years down the road - for any number of reasons.
- This concern was voiced most pointedly in the late summer by Wells Fargo (WFC +1.2%) CEO John Stumpf in the kind of call-out of regulators you don't often hear from corporate leaders.
- The WSJ is now reporting that Fannie (OTCQB:FNMA +5.9%), Freddie (OTCQB:FMCC +7.3%), their regulators, and banks are near a deal in which the lenders could feel protected enough to begin granting mortgages to those without perfect credit and employment histories.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, RWW, RYF, FINZ
Oct. 13, 2014, 8:58 AM
- "The cash that we've raised we intend to use for a new commitment," says Bill Ackman tells Bloomberg following the European IPO of Pershing Square Holdings. "We have a new investment we're going to announce probably in the next 45-60 days."
- "We bought a lot more Fannie (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie (OTCQB:FMCC) stock in the week or so since the adverse court decision ... I think we increased our position by about 20%." Ackman finds it interesting Judge Lamberth weighed in on the taking plan even though it's out of his court's jurisdiction.
- "I think a new board will likely be installed at that date," says Ackman of Allergan (NYSE:AGN) and the December 18 shareholder meeting. He thinks it highly remote that he won't be able to vote his 9.7% stake in the company.
Oct. 10, 2014, 8:21 AM
- "Fairholme believes strongly that the Net Worth Sweep imposed four years after the financial crisis was not authorized by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 and must be unwound," says the fund company, announcing the filing of an appeal of Judge Royce Lamberth's dismissal of lawsuits against the government over the GSEs.
- "Fairholme also believes strongly that the FHFA has contractual and fiduciary duties to the preferred shareholders of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC), and that these duties can and will be enforced."
- Press release
- Previously: Ackman adds to Fannie/Freddie bets
Oct. 10, 2014, 8:04 AM
- Bill Ackman has added to his 10% stake in Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) since the stocks got clobbered by a federal court ruling last week.
- The stocks have trimmed losses after dropping almost 50% when Judge Royce Lamberth threw out lawsuits by Fairholme Capital and Perry Capital, who claimed Washington improperly seized their property by changing the terms of its agreement with them.
Oct. 3, 2014, 1:09 PM
- "The district court's decision overlooks important points of law and improperly resolved key questions of fact based on the government's cherry-picked record," says Perry Capital attorney Ted Olson. "The merits of this case deserve to be heard in court."
- Previously: Carney: Don't buy the dip in Frannie
- Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA +20.2%), Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC +20.3%)
Oct. 2, 2014, 9:59 AM
- The 52-page ruling from U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth "meticulously demolishes" every argument made by investors claiming Treasury and the FHFA acted illegally when altering Fannie Mae's (OTCQB:FNMA -10%) and Freddie Mac's (OTCQB:FMCC -7.3%) bailout agreement in 2012.
- The new agreement, says Lamberth, is clearly within the bounds of authority Congress granted in 2008 when passing a law overhauling oversight of the GSEs.
- Yes, Lamberth's ruling doesn't directly affect the dozens of other pending lawsuits, but now plaintiff's attorneys will have to start out explaining how Lamberth got things wrong.
- Previously: Fannie and Freddie plunge after investor lawsuit dismissed
Oct. 1, 2014, 9:46 AM| 15 Comments
Oct. 1, 2014, 4:41 AM
- A group of Wall Street investors lost their legal challenges yesterday over the treatment of Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) shareholders after their bailout in 2008.
- The investors sued for breach of contract over allegedly promised dividends and liquidation preferences, and what they called an illegal “taking” of their profits by the U.S. Treasury.
- The lawsuits are among the first of almost 20 related cases to be decided.
Sep. 24, 2014, 3:03 PM| 1 Comment
Aug. 29, 2014, 2:01 AM
- Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has asked Judge Jed Rakoff to dismiss the jury verdict which found its Countrywide unit guilty of past mortgage fraud that resulted in a $1.3B penalty.
- Known as the "hustle" case, the lawsuit accuses BofA of selling toxic mortgages to Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC), although the bank argues that the evidence at the trial does not support the claims.
- The motion comes just one week after BofA agreed to a record $16.7B settlement with the U.S. government to settle charges over its role in mortgages leading up to the financial crisis.
FNMA vs. ETF Alternatives
Fannie Mae is a government-sponsored enterprise that was chartered by Congress in 1938 to support liquidity, stability and affordability in the secondary mortgage market, where existing mortgage-related assets are purchased and sold.
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