Fri, Jan. 23, 10:32 AM
- Infinera (INFN +17.7%) knocked the cover off the ball yesterday afternoon, soundly beating Q4 estimates and issuing strong Q1 guidance on the back of growing demand for its DTN-X optical transmission/switching platform for 100G deployments.
- Rival Ciena (CIEN +3.7%) and optical component vendors JDS Uniphase (JDSU +2.7%) and Finisar (FNSR +2.3%) are rallying in response. The companies followed equity markets higher yesterday after Verizon guided for its 2015 capex to be slightly above 2014 levels (contrasts with AT&T's planed capex cut).
- On its CC (transcript), Infinera said it added 10 new invoiced DTN-X customers in Q4 (3 new to Infinera altogether), raising its total to 59, and that nearly half of all DTN-X clients are now opting for the company's Instant Bandwidth rapid provisioning tech. Initial revenue for the Cloud Xpress point-to-point interconnect platform was received in December, and 8 customer commitments have been received to date.
Dec. 9, 2014, 1:52 PM
- Verizon CFO Fran Shammo has promised his company will continue growing wireless capex (albeit while cutting wireline capex) to keep up with data traffic growth. Small cells and smart antennas were mentioned as areas of interest.
- The remarks have been well-received by investors in telecom equipment and component/chip vendors, many of whom have been hit hard by soft North American and (to an extent) European spending. The Nasdaq is up 0.3%.
- Gainers: JDSU +3.6%. FNSR +3.1%. CYNI +10.1%. INFN +2.8%. CIEN +1.9%. AMCC +3.7%. PMCS +3.7%. ZHNE +3%. OCLR +5.4%. AFOP +2.8%. ADTN +2.5%. UBNT +2.2%. XXIA +1.7%. CALX +3.5%. EZCH +2.9%. SONS +2.4%. Sonus is also benefiting from a bullish Wedbush coverage launch.
- The group was pummeled in November after AT&T set a 2015 capex budget of $18B, down from 2014's $21B.
Dec. 4, 2014, 4:33 PM
- Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR) expects FQ3 revenue of $297M-$312M and EPS of $0.23-$0.27, below a consensus of $323.9M and $0.28.
- FQ2 datacom revenue totaled $215.9M, +6% Y/Y but -10% Q/Q thanks to deckububg wireless transceiver sales and "lumpy order patterns" from several customers. Telecom revenue remained pressured by weak carrier capex, falling 6% Q/Q and Y/Y to $81.1M.
- Gross margin fell to 31.1% from 32% in FQ1 and 37.1% a year ago. Opex fell 3.1% to $67.3M.
- Low expectations - shares were down 27% YTD going into earnings - are limiting Finisar's AH drop for now.
- FQ2 results, PR, slides (.pdf)
Nov. 20, 2014, 1:38 PM
- Optical networking hardware vendors and their component suppliers are turning in a good day. The gains come a day after component vendor Oplink announced it's being acquired by Koch Industries for $445M, and will be managed by connector maker Molex (a Koch subsidiary).
- RBC thinks Koch's entrance into the slumping component industry could trigger further consolidation. "Current fab utilization rates remain low ... with optical component vendors unable to charge a premium for their innovation. Gross margins are currently weighed by competitive pressures with optical component makers willing to cut pricing to account for high fixed costs."
- The firm believes Finisar (FNSR +1%) could be a buyer, and JDS Uniphase (JDSU +1.5%) and Oclaro (OCLR +7.1%) sellers. JDS, set to spin off its component unit, is facing activist pressure to put the business on sale.
- Meanwhile, Ciena (CIEN +2.8%) announced this morning it's partnering with Avaya to offer an enterprise solution that pairs its optical networking and integrated optical/Ethernet gear with Avaya's Ethernet switches. Like peers, Ciena is trying to lower its dependence on pressured carrier capex budgets.
- Other gainers: AFOP +3.7%. NPTN +3.3%. ADTN +2.7%. INFN +1.9%.
Nov. 13, 2014, 3:28 PM
- Though Cisco is higher after beating FQ1 estimates and issuing soft FQ2 guidance, many telecom equipment and component/chip names are going in the opposite direction.
- At issue: Cisco reported a 10% Y/Y drop in service provider orders (-18% in the U.S.), while stating on its CC (transcript) it "saw dramatically reduced spend at several large U.S. service providers." The networking giant also suggested demand will remain weak during the next couple of quarters.
- The remarks came just a few days after AT&T set a 2015 capex budget of $18B (down from 2014's $21B), prompting a Monday selloff in equipment vendors and their suppliers.
- Today's decliners: ALU -3.8%. CIEN -2.8%. JDSU -3.1%. FNSR -3.7%. JNPR -1.7%. INFN -3.8%. RKUS -3.4%. ZHNE -3.2%. AMCC -4.1%. CALX -2.7%. CYNI -1.8%. ADTN -3.5%. ALLT -2.4%. FN -1.9%.
Nov. 10, 2014, 9:51 AM
- Declaring its Project VIP network expansion effort ahead of schedule, AT&T has set a 2015 capex budget of $18B, down from 2014's $21B and below a prior forecast of $20B. The figure is equal to only 13% of AT&T's 2015 revenue consensus.
- Telecom equipment and optical component makers, many of whom have already felt the effects of AT&T's subdued 2014 wireline capex, are off in early trading. CSCO -1.4%. ALU -4.8%. CIEN -6.6%. ADTN -7.8%. JNPR -2.5%. RKUS -2.1%. SONS -2.9%. FNSR -2.9%. JDSU -1.1%. RKUS -2.1%. XXIA -2%. FFIV -1.6%. ERIC -1.7%.
- Cisco delivers its FQ1 report on Wednesday. The networking giant reported an 11% Y/Y FQ4 drop in service provider orders, thanks to both weak demand and share loss.
Oct. 24, 2014, 12:32 PM
- Though Ericsson (ERIC -3%) beat Q3 estimates, the mobile infrastructure giant stated North American business activity "slowed down during the quarter as operators currently focus on cash flow optimization." It added North American spending patterns make it tough to judge near-term demand.
- Ericsson's North American sales fell 3% Y/Y to $1.93B, partly offsetting strong growth in China, India (+56%), the Middle East (+38%), and other emerging markets. Top-line figures were boosted some by M&A.
- AT&T and Verizon have been taking cautious approaches to capex, and Sprint (though investing heavily in 4G following the SoftBank deal) has been looking to cut costs under new CEO Marcelo Claure. The U.S. and Japan have been ahead of many other developed markets in ramping 4G coverage.
- Juniper (JNPR -6.3%) offered light Q4 guidance two weeks after delivering a Q3 warning, and reported its service provider sales were down 6% Y/Y due to soft demand from Asia-Pac, EMEA, and (especially) U.S. carriers.
- When the world's #2 carrier router vendor was asked on the CC (transcript) about 2015 sales, CEO Shaygan Keradpir admitted Juniper has poor near-term visibility, and that a rebound could take time. "Because we think these cycles typically take 2 to 4 quarters ... our planning assumption is that growth will return in the second half of 2015."
- Nokia and Infinera recently offered more positive numbers/commentary. Bulls have argued strong data/video traffic growth will lift capex. Bears have argued soft (if not negative) carrier revenue growth will continue pressuring spending.
- Decliners: ALU -1.6%. JDSU -2%. INFN -3.1%. CIEN -2.5%. CALX -2.5%. FNSR -1.8%. ADTN -1.5%. The Nasdaq is up 0.4%.
Oct. 15, 2014, 4:07 PM
- In an encouraging sign for beaten-down telecom equipment and chip/component stocks, Adtran (ADTN +5.7%) managed to rally even though it guided on its Q3 CC (transcript) for a low-to-mid teens Q/Q revenue drop. Consensus (doesn't appear to have fully accounted for Adtran's Q3 warning) was for revenue to drop 2% to $154.9M in Q4.
- Adtran attributed much of its Q3 weakness to "a decline in Europe as a large project there had a seasonal slowdown." Enterprise softness also took a toll.
- The company "[expects] to see an upturn in this business" in 2015, but European sales are expected to remain soft in Q4. Other equipment vendors, such as Juniper (JNPR +2%) and Ciena (CIEN +2.7%), have provided weak guidance blamed on U.S. wireline capex; AT&T is generally seen as a big culprit.
- In addition to Juniper and Ciena, many other industry names have closed with healthy gains. PKT +6.3%. INFN +3.4%. ZHNE +6.7%. ALLT +5.2%. AFOP +4.5%. AMCC +12.5%. CYNI +4%. CALX +3.3%. FNSR +3.1%. UBNT +4.2%. OPLK +3.4%. RKUS +3.3%.
Sep. 11, 2014, 9:14 AM
Sep. 11, 2014, 7:11 AM
- "Combined, the two companies might be valued at $9.85-$14.80 with a midpoint of $12.33," says RBC Capital, upgrading JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) to Outperform, with price target lifted to $18 from $11.
- Previously: JDS Uniphase to split into two public companies
- JDSU +12.4% premarket to $13.61; other optical networking names, Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) +0.8%, Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR) +1.5%.
Sep. 4, 2014, 4:42 PM
Sep. 4, 2014, 4:20 PM
- Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR) expects FQ2 revenue of $305M-$320M and EPS of $0.23-$0.27, below a consensus of $337.5M and $0.35.
- The company blames an expected Q/Q drop in wireless transceiver sales following a strong FQ1, along with weak carrier spending and "a decrease in demand from several datacom customers with lumpy order patterns." Several analysts have already voiced concerns (I, II) about weak near-term sales.
- FQ1 datacom revenue +31% Y/Y to $241.2M. Telecom revenue +6% to $86.4M.
- Gross margin -220 bps Q/Q and -310 bps Y/Y to 32%. FQ2 GM guidance is at 31%-32%. Opex +5.4% Y/Y to $69.4M.
- Shares are halted. Rival JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ:JDSU) is down 0.9% AH. Finisar and JDS both sold off in afternoon trading after Ciena issued soft guidance this morning, while blaming the timing of an AT&T contract.
- FQ1 results, PR, earnings slides (.pdf)
Sep. 2, 2014, 1:45 PM
- Ahead of Thursday's FQ1 report, Jefferies' James Kisner has downgraded Finisar (FNSR -6.2%) to Hold, and cut his target by $6 to $19.
- Kisner cites weak pricing for both datacom and telecom optical components, weaker-than-expected 100G datacom share, a Chinese inventory correction, Cisco/Huawei vertical integration risk (previous), and looming price pressure/share loss to startups and possibly Intel.
- Fellow component vendors JDS Uniphase (JDSU -2.2%), Oclaro (OCLR -1.7%), and Alliance Fiber (AFOP -2.3%) are also off, as is equipment vendor Ciena (CIEN -2.1%). JDS and Alliance were among the names that followed Finisar lower last Wednesday, following cautious notes from MKM and RBC.
- Jefferies raised alarm bells about AT&T's wireline capex in June, before Juniper and JDS offered soft guidance blamed on light North American capex.
- A lot has been priced in: Finisar now only trades for 9x FY16E (ends April '16) EPS exc. net cash.
Aug. 27, 2014, 12:52 PM
- Ahead of Finisar's (FNSR -3.9%) Sep. 4 FQ1 report, MKM's Michael Genovese has respectively cut his revenue and EPS estimates for the quarter by $3M and $0.01, albeit while reiterating a Buy.
- Genovese predicts "soft 2HCY14 carrier capex and the mix shift to low margin Chinese sales is likely to result in fairly anemic Telecom revenue growth and limited [gross margin] expansion in the near term." But he's still upbeat about Finisar's datacom sales (boosted by Web data center buildouts), and thinks telecom sales "should improve in 2HCY15 as the 100G Metro market positively inflects."
- Likewise, RBC's Mark Sue is reiterating an Outperform, but offering cautious remarks. "Inventories are creeping upward, inventory lead-times are decreasing and there’s concern that current soft-pricing may continue or spread to higher speed products."
- Sue thinks Chinese competition is affecting pricing for "low-mid speed components," and suggests Finisar should slash capex and launch a buyback. Shares plunged in June due to light FQ1 EPS guidance that stemmed from margin pressure.
- A slew of other firms with strong telecom capex exposure are also trading lower. JDSU -1.8%. INFN -1.6%. CYNI -2.4%. AFOP -1.5%. CAVM -1.4%. ZHNE -1.6%. Juniper and multiple component vendors have already reported seeing soft near-term capex trends.
- For component vendors, a decent amount of bad news has been priced in since April.
Aug. 21, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Optical component vendors JDS Uniphase (JDSU +4.3%), Finisar (FNSR +3.4%), Oplink (OPLK +3.2%), Oclaro (OCLR +3.6%), and Alliance Fiber (AFOP +2.5%) have all rallied on a quiet day of trading, and so has client Ciena (CIEN +2.7%). No news has hit the wires to explain the gains.
- JDS, Oclaro, and Alliance Fiber all sold off in recent weeks (I, II, III) after providing disappointing guidance in their calendar Q2 reports. JDS (like Juniper following its Q2 report) observed soft North American wireline capex is pressuring industry sales.
Aug. 14, 2014, 12:06 PM
- Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC took a 7.25M-share position in Rackspace (RAX +4.3%) in Q2, along with a 3.5M-share position in Finisar (FNSR -0.2%) and a 2M-share position in InterActiveCorp (IACI +1.7%). (13F)
- Rackspace has jumped on the disclosure. The Web hosting/IaaS provider remains in the midst of a strategic review, and has been the subject of many M&A rumors.
- Finisar has ticked higher after selling off earlier in the wake of Cisco and Oclaro's reports. Shares fell yesterday in response to JDS Uniphase's guidance.
- IAC has moved slightly higher. Shares were already up following news the company has bought Ask.fm.
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