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Friday, May 3, 8:00 AM "We don't want to sell in May and we continue to prefer cyclicals (XLY, XLI, XLB, XLE) ," says JPMorgan's Tom Lee, fully returned to his normal bullish stance. He notes client positioning is "dramatically different" from the heavily long stance of the last 3 years at this time. More, the downturn in gasoline prices could ad 50 bps to GDP in Q2, and the rally in high-yield suggests the economy is set to get stronger. 1 Comment
Tuesday, March 26, 5:45 PM An increasing push to substitute natural gas for oil and improvements in fuel economy could lead to the end of growing oil demand much sooner than expected, Citi's Seth Kleinman forecasts. The last decade's structural bull market was a result of surging global oil demand and weak non-OPEC supply growth; the outlook has now reversed, meaning Brent prices are likely to hover at $80-$90/bbl by decade's end. 7 Comments [Energy, Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 12, 6:46 PM Surging output from shale oil fields likely will lift U.S. crude output to 7.5M bbl/day by October, topping net imports for the first time since 1996, the EIA says in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. U.S. demand last year fell 400K bbl/day to a 16-year low 18.55M, and EIA expects demand in 2013-14 to barely inch higher, as aggressive conservation and substitution measures have pushed consumption onto a new trajectory. 4 Comments [Energy, Commodities, U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, March 12, 8:18 AM World oil demand is set to grow 800K barrels/day in 2013, says OPEC in its March monthly report. That's unchanged from a previous forecast and the same as 2012. Supplies, however, are on the rise thanks to shale oil, says Compass Global's Andrew Su, cutting his forecast for WTI crude (USO) to $75/barrel. 1 Comment [Commodities]
Monday, March 11, 5:41 PM More on Goldman's buy-the-dip short-term outlook for commodities: Crude oil is attractive because of emerging-market demand, limited OPEC spare capacity and relatively low global inventories. Brent futures should continue to show backwardation, and "substantial pipeline de-bottlenecking" in North America should support WTI prices. Gold is another story: It's a flat-out short, with prices rising before falling. 4 Comments [Commodities, Energy]
Monday, March 4, 11:15 AM WTI crude (USO -1.4%) slips below $90/barrel for the first time this year with a renewed policy hawkishness out of Beijing as good an excuse as any for the last few weeks' slide. Check out the correlation between oil and the China A Share ETF (CAF) since the start of February. Comment! [Commodities, On the Move]
Tuesday, January 8, 2:42 PM The world’s oil market should eventually see a glut of crude oil and a fall in prices given non-OPEC growth in production, especially from unconventional and deepwater North American sources, and steady demand growth, Global Hunter says. As for natural gas, the overabundance in supplies has led to a "severe cratering of prices on the one hand, but has set in motion a variety of longer-term demand drivers on the other." Comment! [Energy, Global & FX]
Tuesday, January 8, 8:59 AM Deutsche Bank (DB) slashes its forecast for WTI crude by 10% to $90/barrel, with the key being increased supply from U.S. shale production. Toss in minimal OPEC production curbs and slowish economies, and "implied inventory builds ... could be sizable." 1 Comment [Commodities]
Monday, January 7, 4:31 PM The price gap between the WTI and Brent crude oil benchmarks closes at its narrowest in more than three months. The spread has shrunk by 6.4% YTD, much of it on news from Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Enbridge (ENB) that 400K bbl/day of oil will begin to flow through their Seaway Pipeline by the end of this week, and some traders expect the expansion will continue to narrow the gap. Comment! [Energy, Commodities]
Monday, December 17, 2012, 4:56 PM Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) says it and partner Enbridge (ENB) will expand the Seaway pipeline, a 150K bbl/day line that was reversed earlier this year to ship crude from Cushing, Okla., to Houston, to run 400K bbl/day as of next month, and a further expansion to 850K bbl/day is planned for Q1 2014. The move is credited with helping narrow the discount of U.S. crude to Brent by $1 today. Comment! [Energy]
Thursday, December 13, 2012, 5:38 PM Whether crude costs $60 or $120/bbl., the U.S. is almost free of depending on imported energy and positioned to supplant Saudi Arabia as the world’s top producer of oil, Citi's Ed Morse says. While U.S. producers break even with prices of $72-$75/bbl. and will keep drilling new shale wells at $60 because they’ve already hedged future output, the Saudis face different challenges. 1 Comment [Energy, U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Wednesday, December 12, 2012, 12:45 PM OPEC announced it would maintain oil production at 30M bbl/day, but do its quotas even matter any more? Capital Economics' Julian Jessop thinks not: "While it may be in the interests of the group as a whole to cap output and support prices, each individual member has an obvious incentive to sell as much oil as possible." Plus, as non-OPEC supply increases, compliance is likely to weaken further. 7 Comments [Energy, Global & FX]
Wednesday, December 12, 2012, 4:42 AM The International Energy Agency increases its forecast for 2013 worldwide oil demand by 110K bpd to 90.5M, saying it expects growth to "stay relatively sluggish" due to "tepid global economic expansion." In its monthly report, the IEA also raises its production forecast by 70K bpd to 54.2M bpd, with the U.S. shale revolution driving growth. Comment! [Energy]
Tuesday, December 11, 2012, 2:15 PM Although there is deadlock over who should be OPEC's new secretary general, the cartel's members - even Iran - are in agreement that oil prices are roughly where they want them. OPEC projects demand for its crude in H1 2013 at 29.25M bbl/day, implying a 1.5M bbl/day stockbuild during that period vs. November's output of 30.8M bbl/day and a possible upcoming drop in prices. Comment! [Energy, Global & FX]
Friday, December 7, 2012, 12:46 PM Why do investors continue to pour money into EWJ and expose themselves to currency risk when the DBJP offers the same Japanese stock exposure, but hedged against the yen? Another of Dennis Hudachek's 10 Overlooked ETFs is the INDA, tracking the same Indian index as the INP, but with lower expenses. And don't forget IAU, basically the same exposure as GLD, but at 15 bps cheaper per year. 5 Comments
Thursday, December 6, 2012, 7:43 AM WTI crude (USO) slips further in relevance with the Energy Department dropping the use of the benchmark for its annual oil price forecast. Brent crude (BNO) - now selling for $21/barrel more - will be used instead. "WTI has become a misleading price indicator for global economic growth," says researcher Gordon Kwan. Comment! [Commodities]

FRAK Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF

FRAK

Market Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF