First Solar Inc. (FSLR)

All Comments on FSLR

  • commenter
    User 244621
    Aug 17 08:09 AM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    Jack,

    Do you still believe TSL and SOL are the stocks to own? I would like to be in the best position possible to ride this solar boom now and long term. Has your thoughts changed on what stocks to own inorder to ride this new surge in alternative energy? Thank you for your insight.     Reply
  • commenter
    Wayfarer
    Aug 16 10:34 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    Jack,

    Thanks for the further comments. I too believe alternative energies are a certainty and soon. There are a number of little thinfilms that have or will start production in the next year. On top of Optisolar which is evidently not so little there is Global Solar whose product is flexible and manufactured roll to roll. Their current efficiencies are 10% with projections of 13% in 2010. They have a partnership with DOW which might allow them to scale very rapidly at some point and the flexible product sounds very interesting for covering entire residential roofs.     Reply
  • commenter
    User 10755
    Aug 16 08:43 PM
    My Website
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    SATC... this small alternative energy company will also play a part in this project, on a small scale of course, but hugh none-the-less...

    www.satcon.com/about.p...     Reply
  • commenter
    aquaculture
    Aug 16 06:01 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    sodapop i hope.... Reply
  • commenter
    Jack Yetiv
    Aug 16 05:11 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    Don't know much about Optisolar except that it's a private company based in Hayward, CA, where I used to take helo flying lessons! I have often seen it listed as a minor, start-up thin-film producer, but clearly, 550MW is no start-up (to give you a metric--550MW is in the range of what either SPWR, TSL or CSIQ will make in 2009--total company production). Do keep in mind that these contracts won't begin to be realistically performed for at least 6 months, probably closer to a year, and much can change in a year.

    My guess (and it is only that) is that Optisolar's efficiency is today in the ballpark of FSLR, which is about 11%. SPWR has laboratory 23.6% efficiency, and I expect their production panels in 2010 will probably be around 25%.

    As to McCain and Obama, to my knowledge, neither has come out and stated a position on the ITC, but both have included "renewable energy" as something we ought to do. But even forgetting the two candidates, there is a growing groundswell of support for renewables in this country, and Boone has helped put renewables/wind on the map. Just like poll results will push Obama not to oppose drilling the OCS/ANWR, I believe the same will happen with renewables.

    Watch for this topic to become front and center during the debates.

    Also, it's entirely possible that this issue will come up when Congress returns from its recess in a couple of weeks. Remember, the states are way ahead of the federal govt on this issue (30 states now have RPS's, Renewable Portfolio Standards), which will also generate pressure on Congress to do something. Finally, as the economy slows, and unemployment increases, extending the ITC will be sold as a "jobs creation" plan--which of course, it will be.

    One way or another--and for so many reasons--this country HAS to support renewables. And, I believe that although we'll be late to the party (compared to Europe), once we get to the party, we'll be the heaviest drinkers.

    Jack     Reply
  • commenter
    kkin365
    Aug 16 03:59 PM
    My Website
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    Both the initial post and various commentators are superbly done. At issue, perhaps, is the tax credit. How are the 2 presidential candidates' positions on this? Reply
  • commenter
    User 179191
    Aug 16 03:54 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    All comments do indeed raise valid points and therefore have merit - thanks to all. But Jack Yativ's observations seem most balanced (neither all-black or all-white) and worthy of re-reading I think. Thanks Jack. Reply
  • commenter
    Wayfarer
    Aug 16 03:46 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    Jack,

    Thanks for the post. I too am confident a long term ITC will be passed within the next year. Also, do you have any idea what Optisolar's solar efficiency is? Their large 500 meg entry to the solar world makes me wonder if their solar efficiency is significantly better than FSLR's.     Reply
  • commenter
    Jack Yetiv
    Aug 16 01:54 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    I wrote a series of articles on solar on this site several months ago, so, to avoid repetition, my comments here will be brief:

    1) It was actually another Calif utility--Southern Calif Edison--that launched meaningful utility-scale solar in the US with its 250 MW announcement on March 27 of this year. SCE's is a distributed model, where they will rent large commercial rooftops on which they will install dozens if not hundreds of panels. Therefore, solar on distributed rooftops will continue to grow and prosper, especially in new construction (as noted above) and via BIPV (building-integrated photovoltaics).

    2) The distributed model has both cost advantages and disadvantages. The disadvantage is that it's easier to install 10,000 panels in one site than to install 100 panels in 100 different sites. However, the advantages probably overcome this--no need to buy land, no need for new transmission (a real issue in many parts of Calif and elsewhere), and minimal transmission losses, which routinely exceed 10-15% of power produced in a power plant.

    3) One of my articles argued that in proper locations, we have essentially reached grid parity. SCE's, and now, PGE's deals, prove this to be true. Why is this true? To briefly recap points in my previous series of articles:

    a) Solar's power-production profile better suits peak load (although trackers can achieve close to full power for 12 hours, as my own domestic tracking-PV system has now proved for 4 years), making solar KWH's much more valuable than wind's or conventional power plants.

    b) The cost of coal and nat gas have increased a lot in the past year (even taking the recent falls into account), making "conventionally-p... power much more expensive than it used to be.

    c) Utilities and their financiers are starting to take carbon production into account, and once you do that, solar becomes very competitive as well.

    d) Cost of making solar panels has dropped and will drop even more in 2009 and 2010. Note that the panels for the PGE project won't be getting made until 2009 at the earliest, and more likely in 2010, by which time many solar manufacturers believe their cost of making the panels will be 30% less than it was last year.

    Finally, although on the surface of it, this project appears to be "contingent" on extension of the ITC, the reality is that this announcement was meant to put pressure on Congress to do exactly that. I consider it extremely unlikely--especially in the face of this announcement (and I predict you will see other big projects also announced which will be contingent on extension of the ITC)--that Congress will not extend the ITC.

    Remember, we also have the likes of Boone Pickens lobbying (and putting pressure on) Congress to act in favor of renewable energy.

    Jack     Reply
  • commenter
    pprimo
    Aug 16 01:18 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    doing mega solar projects makes a much sense as putting a mini-refinery in each household. Solar lends it self to site based installation, not megaplants subject to huge transmission losses. This is a step forward ONLY in that it may help lower the cost of the cells to the tipping point of grid parity. Then again, driving up demand for solar may keep prices high and prevent the decentralization of power generation that the power companies fear is coming. Disintermediation in power production, could be slowed by utilities hoarding solar production. Reply
  • commenter
    CLH
    Aug 16 12:59 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    Solar will never compete with other energy sources except with huge gov. subsidies which PG&E is salivating at. Pity the poor tax payer.

    Wind power is ever less usable.     Reply
  • commenter
    fran
    Aug 16 12:41 PM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    your IFs and BUTs highlighted in blue/orange carry a big story witin this BIG story. the two technology cos. are committing to become major utilities with very newofferings with very little experience as a base. i wish them all success in this gargantuan task.

    as no financials have been released by any of the 3 players, individual investment thoughts would be very premature. no dates for such info has been released.

    it would appear that PG & E are offering to purchase power to fullfill CA RPS requirements with full financial/technical/ma... risk left to SUNPWR/OPTISOL. P G & E have many such contracts established. it will be important to understand these many aspects to properly assess this ventures attributes.     Reply
  • commenter
    David Lentz
    Aug 16 09:52 AM
    Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal [view article]
    Certainly, solar on homeowner rooftops is an expensive proposition for existing homes, and probably will always be so. But for new home construction (and someday, in the far distant future, we will once again build new homes), where one can site the home in an optimal manner for solar energy (rooftops at an appropriate pitch, facing south) and roll the cost of the solar into the mortgage, solar makes GREAT SENSE for individual homeowners. It is probably not more expensive than 2X-4X the cost of the heating and A/C equipment (I just replaced our furnace and A/C, so I have some recent data on this), and there is zero fuel cost going forward for the 20+ years of useful working life of the solar collectors. Technologies like ENER's Solar Shingles spring to mind, which are VERY low-cost when installation expense is taken into consideration.

    Anyhow, I just wanted to hold open a ray of hope for homeowner solar electric power. It's not a completely hopeless case. One can see housing developments where rooftop solar is part of the package a few years from now. The biggest roadblock is the current nightmare in the mortgage and homebuilding industries, and eventually, this too shall pass.     Reply
  • commenter
    Stealth
    Aug 16 06:01 AM
    The Sharp Edge of Solar: Are Solar Stocks Cheap? [view article]
    Solar is really simple once you understand it. First Solar has the cheapest panels & best balance sheet. SunPower has the best technology & the best business with utilities for the incredibly large scale (well, we should look at this newcomer OptiSolar, who I've never heard of until they announced their incredibly large deal (550MW!) in California). I'm not convinced the other solar companies will be around after a few years.

    Isn't Sharp anything but a pure play? If you want to buy a company that mixes solar with some chip-making exposure, buy Cypress Semiconductor (who owns ~half of SunPower).
     Reply
  • commenter
    User 10755
    Aug 15 09:39 PM
    My Website
    The Sharp Edge of Solar: Are Solar Stocks Cheap? [view article]
    SATC.... has great potential.... Reply

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