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Finding Long-Term Growth In Australia's Resource BaseDavid Dittman • Wed, Oct 12, 2011 -
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- | On the move
- Thursday, April 4, 7:42 AM The iron ore market will be move into surplus this year for the first time in a decade, says Morgan Stanley, and continue there until at least 2018. It's not rocket science - mine expansion projects announced during the boom years are coming online just at the time demand begins to slump. The question for miner investors: Is this already baked into their stock price? 2 Comments [Commodities]
- Tuesday, February 26, 10:10 AM UBS sees iron ore prices slumping at least 50% by Q3 to their lowest level since 2009, as China boosts production and global supply climbs. Australia is set to deliver ~80% of total new seaborne supply this year, most of it in H2 as China has “sufficient” ore and steel production declines. But first, rates may jump as a severe cyclone nears Port Hedland, the world’s largest bulk export facility. Comment! [Commodities, Global & FX]
- Friday, February 22, 8:33 AM The risk is high that a tropical low off Australia's northwest coast will strengthen into a cyclone by Sunday as it moves closer to the Pilbara mining belt which produces nearly half of the world's seaborne iron ore. The area also is home to two of the country's largest gas production facilities, and oil from offshore fields contribute about a third of Australia's 390K bbl/day of output. Comment! [Commodities, Global & FX]
- Wednesday, February 13, 5:53 PM Steel manufacturers including U.S. Steel (X) will suffer as China's appetite for iron ore slows, with high pension costs also a cause for concern, Blue Mountain hedge fund manager Andrew Feldstein says. He recommends shorting the company by being long its equity and short its credit by a ratio of one to six; he also promotes shorting Japan's JFE and Australia's Fortescue. Comment! [Commodities]
- Thursday, September 27, 2012, 3:48 PM Speaking of the cure for low prices, it's estimated 40% of China's iron ore mines have suspended operations as the mineral's low price has them losing money. Good enough, but the pain is apparently not yet great enough for VALE which says it will continue forging ahead to increase ore output. Earlier: Baosteel shutters a steel plant. 4 Comments [Commodities]
- Wednesday, September 26, 2012, 11:50 PM Baoshan Iron & Steel - China's largest steelmaker - suspends production at one of its plants, citing a "downturn in demand." "The bigger issue is ... all the mills are under pressure," says analyst Kuni Chen, warning of a vicious cycle of more production declines leading to continued slides in raw materials (iron ore) prices. 1 Comment [Global & FX, Commodities]
- Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 9:50 PM A casualty of sharp capital expenditure cutbacks by mining operations, Australian contractor Macmahon Holdings plummets 38% in Sydney amidst a warning of a sharp drop in profits and the resignation of its CEO. Meanwhile, mining boom "exhibit A" Fortescue continues a massive 2-day rally on the heels of a deal to restructure its balance sheet without a dilutive capital raise. Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]
- Thursday, September 13, 2012, 7:07 AM As good a proxy for the China capital spending bubble as anything can be, Australian miner Fortescue falls another 13.9% in Sydney as it asks its creditors to waive debt covenants if iron ore prices remain under pressure. Less than a month ago, management was bragging about the continuing mining boom, now the company has shelved expansion plans, and a dilutive capital raise seems likely. Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]
- Friday, September 7, 2012, 11:13 AM Australian mining-boom poster boy Fortescue pulls out of its downward spiral, soaring 11.5% in Sydney last night amidst chatter about equity raises and/or asset sales. Commonwealth Bank suggests a deeply discounted rights offering is the best of a tough set of choices. Short a recovery in iron ore prices, UBS pegs fair value for the shares at A$2 (vs. close of $3.31). (previous) Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]
- Thursday, September 6, 2012, 11:12 AM The poster child for the China-led mining craze of the past decade, Fortescue tumbles again (-4.8%) in Sydney, now off 30% in less than a month as the reality of something less than boom times catches up. The company's recently announced capital spending cuts leaves creditors wondering how Fortescue will increase production enough to make its nut. Iron ore prices continue lower. Comment! [Commodities]
- Wednesday, September 5, 2012, 5:03 PM Keep an eye on Fortescue in Sydney tonight. Days after their promotional management insisted all was well with the mining business, the company slashed capital spending plans and then sold a power station to raise cash, resulting in a 2-day 12.4% slide in shares. Now the company - heavily leveraged to Chinese steel demand - is apparently on the horn to convince lenders to take a piece of a $1.5B loan. Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]
- Tuesday, September 4, 2012, 7:33 AM Australia's Fortescue joins rivals BHP and RIO in announcing slashed capital spending plans amidst sliding demand and pricing for iron ore. The move comes just days after the company's CEO said all was well in the business and the company expected to triple production within a year. Shares fell 4.2% in Sydney. 1 Comment [Global & FX]
- Wednesday, August 22, 2012, 11:33 PM Aussie miner Fortescue begs to differ (previous), CEO Nev Power saying metal oversupply and low prices are a temporary blip. He spoke as his company reported better-than-expected H2 profits. "There is a boom and it's continuing and those volumes will continue in the future," says the always confident Power. Shares -1% in Sydney. 3 Comments [Global & FX, Commodities]
- Thursday, July 19, 2012, 10:54 PM The price of iron ore at Tianjin Port falls to $125.60/metric ton, a new low for 2012 as Chinese inventories hit a record high. Even as demand shrinks, producers continue to increase output, both RIO and BHP digging up record amounts this year, and BHP planning on nearly a 40% increase by 2014. Comment! [Commodities, Global & FX]
- Wednesday, July 11, 2012, 8:06 AM Can we make an argument with Andrew Forrest - founder of wildly successful iron-ore miner Fortescue? With iron-ore producer shares at their lowest level in years, he bought $137M of stock in his company in June. Evy Hambro, PM with BlackRock, and sitting on stakes in RIO and BHP says Forrest's move is "a very clear signal" of better times ahead. 1 Comment [Commodities]
- Wednesday, June 27, 2012, 1:28 PM Among Jim Chanos' tip-offs for value traps: Cyclical and/or highly dependent on one product, and hindsight driving profit expectations. Among the stocks that fit: CONSOL Energy (CNX), Petrobas (PBR), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Coinstar (CSTR), Banco Santander (SAN), and Australia's Fortescue. 3 Comments [Quick Ideas]
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Caiman Valores
It appears short sellers are circling an over extended Fortescue (FSUMF.PK) http://bit.ly/NEo9n4, could the same happen with Vale? - View all 0 replies
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Alex B. Gray
Leucadia LUK sells 92.4M of its nearly 248M shares in iron ore producer Fortescue Metal Group FSUMF.PK FSUMY.PK for $609.22M. - View all 0 replies
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Alex B. Gray
Fortescue Metal Group $FSUMF.PK up over 8% on news it refinanced US$2.04 billion of its debt. Leucadia $LUK owns an 8% stake in Fortescue. - View all 0 replies
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