Mon, Jan. 26, 9:30 AM| 1 Comment
Fri, Jan. 2, 12:08 PM
- "Safety used to mean gold, US treasuries, and blue chip stocks. Now it means Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook," says high-profile VC Fred Wilson while offering his 2015 predictions. Though believing rising interest rates and low oil prices will trigger "a noticeable flight to safety," he sees major tech firms continuing to have easy access to capital.
- On the other hand, Wilson is cautious on the near-term outlook for the budding wearables market (John Legere feels differently). "Apple Watch will not be the homerun product that iPod, iPhone, and iPad have been. Not everyone will want to wear a computer on their wrist. Eventually, this market will be realized as the personal mesh/personal cloud, but the focus on wearables will be a bit of a headfake..."
- He also expects virtual reality to "hit some headwinds" after getting hyped in 2014 following the Facebook/Oculus (NASDAQ:FB) deal. "Oculus will struggle to ship their consumer version and competitive products will underwhelm. The virtual reality will eventually catch up to the virtual hype, but not in 2015."
- He forecasts cybersecurity budgets "will explode in 2015 as every company, institution, and government attempts to avoid being Sony’d." But Wilson also thinks "the hacks will continue because on the open internet there is no such thing as an impenetrable system." Cybersecurity plays: FEYE, PANW, FTNT, IMPV, QLYS, PFPT.
- Wilson, a long-time Bitcoin (COIN, OTCQB:BTCS) believer, once more defends the cryptocurrency. "The horrible year that bitcoin had in 2014 will be a wakeup call for all stakeholders. Developers will turn their energy from creating the next bitcoin (all the alt stuff) to creating the stack on top of the bitcoin blockchain. Real decentralized applications will start to emerge..."
- Tech ETFs: QQQ, XLK, PSQ, TQQQ, QID, VGT, SQQQ, QLD, TECL, IYW, ROM, FTEC, TECS, RYT, QQEW, QTEC, IGM, QQQE, FXL, MTK, REW, QQXT
Dec. 18, 2014, 11:13 AM
- FireEye (FEYE +4.9%), recently hired by Sony to probe its massive hacking incident, is rallying strongly on an up day for equities after Sony cancelled The Interview's release in response to the hack and subsequent threats on movie theater chains.
- Other security tech names are also outperforming: PANW +3.2%. KEYW +3.9%. FTNT +2.6%. PFPT +3.2%. Imperva (IMPV +2.6%) is adding to the Wednesday gains it saw following a Deutsche upgrade.
Oct. 23, 2014, 12:03 PM
- Check Point (CHKP +4.2%) beat Q3 estimates and offered healthy Q4 guidance: Revenue of $395M-$430M and EPS of $0.99-$1.09 vs. a consensus of $410.3M and $1.03.
- Fortinet (FTNT -0.1%) posted a Q3 beat, reported strong billings growth, and issued above-consensus Q4 revenue guidance. EPS guidance was light due to aggressive spending.
- Several security tech peers are outperforming on a day the Nasdaq is up 1.7%. PANW +4.4%. FEYE +4.5%. PFPT +4.9%. QLYS +2.7%. The numbers follow downbeat guidance from IBM, SAP, and VMware, and arguably highlight security's growing share of IT spend.
- Oppenheimer is reiterating an Outperform and $30 target on Fortinet, and notes the company's new billings guidance implies 26% 2014 growth at the midpoint (up from 22%). It thinks the UTM hardware vendor's performance is being driven by strong high-end appliance sales, product refreshes, and the fruits of major sales/marketing investments.
Oct. 22, 2014, 7:00 PM
- Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) guides in its Q3 earnings CC slides (.pdf) for Q4 revenue of $206M-$211M and EPS of $0.13-$0.14 vs. a consensus of $202.9M and $0.15.
- Q3 billings totaled $213M, +29% Y/Y, above guidance of $195M-$200M, and above revenue of $193.4M. Q4 billings guidance is at $245M-$250M.
- Free cash flow was $51M in Q3, much better than net income of $20M. The reason: Fortinet's deferred revenue balance rose 4% Q/Q and 25% Y/Y to $500M. 35 $500K+ deals were inked, up from 19 a year ago.
- Products were 45% of revenue, and services/other 55%. GAAP opex rose 31% to $121M, keeping a lid on EPS. From the looks of things, opex will grow strongly in Q4 as well.
- FTNT +1.5% AH. Q3 results, PR
Oct. 22, 2014, 4:18 PM
Oct. 21, 2014, 5:35 PM
- ACTG, ALB, ALGT, AWH, BCR, BDN, CA, CAKE, CLB, CLGX, CLW, CTXS, CVA, EEFT, EFX, EGHT, FTK, FTNT, GGG, IBKC, INFN, LEG, LHO, LOGI, LRCX, MKSI, MKTO, MLNX, MSA, NOW, NXPI, ORLY, OTEX, PLCM, PLXS, RE, RJF, SCSS, SFG, SGMO, SHLM, SKX, SLG, SLM, SUSQ, T, TAL, TCBI, TER, TILE, TMK, TSCO, TYL, USTR, VAR, WFT, YELP
Oct. 6, 2014, 12:28 PM
- Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss has downgraded Fortinet (FTNT -3.1%) to Equal-weight, albeit while keeping his $29 target.
- Though admitting the UTM security hardware vendor's big sales/marketing and R&D investments are bearing fruit, Weiss doesn't like the face sales productivity (as measured by the ratio of product billings to sales/marketing spend) has been declining over the last 6 quarters.
- He adds sustaining Fortinet's current billings growth could be challenging in 2015. Fortinet has guided for 22% 2014 billings growth.
- Peers Palo Alto Networks (PANW -2.3%) and FireEye (FEYE -3%), both of whom have also been making big sales investments, are also lower. Palo Alto received a bullish Piper note on Friday, while FireEye was hit by a Northland Securities downgrade.
Oct. 3, 2014, 10:56 AM
- Fortinet (FTNT +2.9%), Imperva (IMPV +2.9%), Qualys (QLYS +3.5%), Barracuda Networks (CUDA +6.4%), and newly-public CyberArk (CYBR +4.8%) are all rallying after JPMorgan disclosed contact info for 83M accounts was exposed by a data breach. Palo Alto Networks is also up, aided by a bullish Piper note.
- On the other hand, FireEye (FEYE -2.7%) is slumping in response to a downgrade to Underperform from Northland Securities. The firm is worried FireEye will be hurt by intensifying competition from the likes of Palo Alto, Proofpoint, and private Cyphort. Many others on the sell-side have argued FireEye's threat-prevention hardware/software has a technology edge over rivals.
- Several security stocks also rallied following news of Apple's iCloud hack.
Aug. 25, 2014, 9:21 AM
- Raymond James thinks H-P could acquire FireEye (NASDAQ:FEYE) or Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) to expand its enterprise security position.
- Remarks made in H-P's FQ3 CC last week about the presence of "material non-public information" have fueled M&A speculation. UBS named Rackspace as a potential target on Friday, but re/code soon followed up by reporting H-P is still uninterested in the company. The enterprise security space has seen plenty of M&A activity over the last two years.
- SA Pro author David Hernandez offered a bullish take on FireEye on Friday, arguing (among other things) the company's threat-prevention platform is differentiated by a superior virtual sandbox for analyzing/executing potentially malicious code.
- FEYE +2.3%. FTNT unchanged for now.
Jul. 24, 2014, 1:57 PM
- Fortinet (FTNT +6.7%) beat Q2 estimates with the help of 33% Y/Y billings growth (exceeded rev. growth of 25%) and a 95% Y/Y increase in $500K+ deals.
- The company guided in its CC slides (.pdf) for Q3 revenue of $182M-$185M and EPS of $0.11 vs. a consensus of $177.3M and $0.13. Full-year guidance is for revenue of $735M-$740M and EPS of $0.47-$0.48 vs. a consensus of $714M and $0.50. Billings are expected to grow ~22% to $835M-$840M.
- On its CC (transcript), the UTM hardware leader suggested its light EPS guidance is due to a heavy investment pace, including aggressive sales hiring. It also mentioned Americas sales were up 40% Y/Y, fueled by a 73% increase for U.S. enterprise.
- Meanwhile, Vasco Data (VDSI +16.9%) trounced Q2 estimates and hiked its guidance for 2014 revenue from traditional businesses to $175M-$180M from $168M-$172M. The company notes adoption of new productions leveraging its Cronto visual authentication tech (acquired last year) has been strong.
- FireEye (FEYE +3%), Palo Alto Networks (PANW +2.8%), Proofpoint (PFPT +3.6%), and Check Point (CHKP +1.7%) are trading higher. Proofpoint reports after the bell; Check Point provided a Q2 beat and healthy top-line guidance yesterday.
- On the other hand, Barracuda (CUDA -5.9%) is selling off. JPMorgan attributes the decline to Fortinet's CC remarks about rapidly growing sales to mid-sized businesses - Barracuda depends heavily on them - with the help of new resellers. The firm argues the concerns are overblown, particularly since Fortinet is more focused on larger mid-sized businesses.
Jul. 23, 2014, 5:41 PM
Jul. 23, 2014, 4:20 PM
Jul. 22, 2014, 5:35 PM
- AF, AHL, AIZ, ALGT, ALSN, ANGI, ANGO, AVB, AWH, BDN, CA, CAKE, CCI, CHE, CLB, CLGX, CLW, CMRE, CRUS, CSGP, CTXS, EFX, EGHT, ETFC, ETH, FB, FFIV, FLS, FR, FTNT, GGG, GILD, HBI, HWAY, IBKC, ILMN, INFN, KALU, LHO, MAC, MKSI, MSA, NSR, NVEC, NXPI, OHI, OII, ORLY, PLCM, QCOM, QTM, RE, RJF, SFG, SGMO, SKX, SLG, SLM, SUSQ, T, TAL, TCBI, TER, TEX, TILE, TMK, TQNT, TRIP, TSCO, TYL, UMPQ, USTR, VAR, WFT
May 7, 2014, 2:24 PM
- FireEye (FEYE -26.2%) has crashed to new post-IPO lows after offering light EPS guidance to go with a revenue beat, and has sparked a sharp selloff in IT security stocks on (another) down day for momentum plays. PANW -10.2%. IMPV -7.1%. PFPT -6.8%. QLYS -8.7%. FTNT -3.3%.
- Citi is worried about a lack of "opacity" for FireEye's top-line numbers following the Mandiant deal. "Management noted 'bookings' for both FireEye and Mandiant grew >50% Y/Y. With FY13 growth of near 100% this leaves an outstanding question of whether or not business decelerated meaningfully on an organic basis."
- Others are more positive. Wells Fargo (Outperform) is still confident about its forecast for 50%+ revenue growth over the next 3 years, and the "disruptive nature" of FireEye's business model (integrated threat-prevention hardware/software/services). Goldman (Neutral, but with a $58 PT) thinks organic growth is good enough, and expects a flurry of new products to provide a boost.
- FBN (Outperform) is still bullish long-term, but also notes product revenue was below consensus, and is on edge over a May 21 lockup expiration that will lead 68% of shares to become eligible for sale.
Apr. 23, 2014, 5:47 PM
- TriQuint (TQNT) expects Q2 revenue of $215M-$225M and EPS of $0.06-$0.08, above a consensus of $200.3M and $0.04. Shares +6.5% AH. Merger partner RF Micro (RFMD), which reports on April 29, is up 3.1%. Both companies might also be getting a lift from Apple's March quarter iPhone sales print. (Q1 results, PR)
- Fortinet (FTNT) guides in its earnings slides (.pdf) for Q2 revenue of $169M-$172M (above a $168.9M consensus), EPS of $0.10 (below an $0.11 consensus), and billings of $185M-$190M (+17% Y/Y). Q1 billings totaled $188M, +26% Y/Y and well above guidance of $168M-$173M. Shares +4.4% AH. (Q1 results, PR)
- Crown Castle (CCI) has raised its full-year AFFO forecast to $1.346B-$1.361B ($4.04-$4.08/share) from a prior $1.318B-$1.333B. Site rental revenue guidance has been raised by $11M to $2.983B-$2.993B. (Q1 results, PR)
FTNT vs. ETF Alternatives
Fortinet Inc is provider of network security solutions that are designed to address the fundamental problems of an increasingly bandwidth-intensive network environment and a more sophisticated information technology threat landscape.
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