Mon, Feb. 2, 2:43 PM
Fri, Jan. 9, 3:09 PM
- Revising its forecast for a number of currency pairs to reflect what it believes will be a prolonged run higher for the dollar, Goldman sees the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) reaching parity with the greenback by Jan. 2017, and falling to as low as $0.90 a year later.
- One other notable move is for the aussie (NYSEARCA:FXA), and the team now expects it to weaken to $0.75 by year's end vs. the previous forecast of $0.79. Alongside that expectation, naturally, is the forecast that commodity prices will continue to weaken.
- U.S. dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN, UUPT, FORX, UDNT, USDU
Dec. 1, 2014, 10:56 AM
Nov. 3, 2014, 1:47 PM
Oct. 29, 2014, 2:30 PM
- While the statement - an end to QE, retention of the "considerable time" language, chatter about improving employment -wasn't much a surprise, the fact that the dissent came from the dove camp suggests perhaps there was a bit more hawkishness in the conference room than past meetings.
- In any case, while stocks and longer-dated rates have a relatively subdued reaction, money is moving into the greenback (UUP +0.7%), with the euro (FXE -0.7%), yen (FXY -0.7%), pound (FXB -0.2%), Swiss franc (FXF -0.6%), loonie (FXC -0.4%), and aussie (FXA -0.6%) all considerably lower than they were 30 minutes ago.
- ETFs: FXE, UUP, FXY, EUO, FXA, YCS, UDN, ERO, JYN, DRR, CROC, FORX, UUPT, UDNT, YCL, EUFX, ULE, USDU, URR, GDAY
- Previously: QE ends, "considerable time" language stays for now
Oct. 6, 2014, 3:49 PM
- Going higher without fail on nearly a daily basis since Memorial Day, the dollar (UUP -1.2%) is selling off hard today, likely helping to light up the commodity sector (DBC +1.4%) bright green.
- Among individual currencies, the euro (FXE +1.2%), loonie (FXC +1.2%), aussie (FXA +1.3%), swissie (FXF +0.7%), pound (FXB +0.5%), and yen (FXY +1.1%) are all posting sizable gains.
- Dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN, FORX, UUPT, UDNT, USDU
- Broad commodity ETFs: DBC, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, GSC, GSP, RGRC, DJCI, LSC, DEE, FTGC, UCI, DYY, CMD, BCM, DDP, UCD, CMDT, DPU, SBV, CSCB, CSCR
Oct. 1, 2014, 9:43 AM
Sep. 22, 2014, 11:22 AM
- Iron ore slumped to a new five-year low overnight as China's finance minster said not to expect anything major from Beijing to counter a recent string of weak economic data.
- “The Chinese government is signaling it won’t be very aggressive in stimulating growth, and that’s scaring investors,” says a hedge funder in Rio, though it'll be upcoming elections as the main driver for the Bovespa.
- The ASX (NYSEARCA:EWA) fell 1.3% in Sydney, and the aussie (NYSEARCA:FXA) is off 0.7% to $0.8865. Brazil's Bovespa is lower by 2.2%, led by Vale (VALE -4.2%).
- Brazilian banks: Banco Bradesco (BBD -1.8%), Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR -0.6%), Itau Unibanco (ITUB -2.3%).
- The iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ -2.7%)
- Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRZU, BRAZ, BZQ, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
Sep. 2, 2014, 7:34 AM
Aug. 1, 2014, 2:36 PM
Jul. 1, 2014, 11:32 AM
Jun. 12, 2014, 7:41 AM
- "The tide has turned for aussie (FXA) now that the Japanese have come back to the market,” says Geoffrey Kendrick, Morgan's chief of currency and interest rate strategy for Asia. "Their switch back into Aussie bonds signals a turn in global long-term investor sentiment."
- The team at Morgan expects this Japanese demand to push the aussie to parity against the greenback for the first time in more than a year, extending a 5.3% advance it's already made YTD. It can be labeled a contrarian call, given the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey is for the aussie to slip to $0.89 by year's end.
- Key for Morgan is the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to stop cutting interest rates. With the benchmark overnight rate at 2.5% and 10-year government paper at 3.82%, Australia is drawing big money from Japanese investors craving yield of any sort.
- Equity ETFs: EWA, AUSE, FAUS
Jun. 4, 2014, 6:38 AM
- "It's still too early to break out the champagne," says AMP Capital's Shane Oliver after Australia's Q1 GDP rose 1.1% Q/Q and 3.5% Y/Y, both beating forecasts and coming in at the quickest pace in two years. "Growth will not be sustained at this pace for the next few quarters."
- The slowdown in Oz over the past couple of years has come about thanks to a downturn in the mining industry as demand from Asia (China) slows, and the central bank has slashed interest rates to a record-low 2.5% in response.
- "FIve minutes of economic sunlight," is how Deutsche chief economist Adam Boyton describes the GDP report, expecting the mining investment slowdown to continue to be a drag.
- The aussie is up 0.1% to $0.9273 and stocks in Sydney closed lower by 0.6%.
- ETFs: FXA, EWA, AUSE, CROC, GDAY, FAUS
Jun. 2, 2014, 2:23 PM
May 8, 2014, 4:07 AM
- Australia's jobless rate held steady at 5.8% in April and came in just below consensus of 5.9%.
- The number of people in work climbed 14,200 after rising 22,000 a month earlier and topped consensus of +6,750.
- The number of full-time jobs rose 14,200 following a drop of 22,800, while that for part-time positions was flat vs +40,200.
- The participation rate slipped to 64.7% from 64.8%.
- The increased number of jobs comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 2.5% this week amid slowing inflation and ahead of expected cuts in government spending.
- The S&P/ASX 200 is +0.75%, while the AUD-USD is +0.6% at $0.9381. (PR)
- ETFs: FXA, EWA, AUD, AUSE, CROC, AUNZ, KROO, EWAS, GDAY, FAUS
May 1, 2014, 7:20 PM
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