FXB Forum Topics
- All Comments on FXB
- General Discussion on FXB
- Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
- Time To Short the British Pound? [view article]
- The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
- Six Ways to Trade Foreign Currencies [view article]
- Owning Things That Don't Do Much Sometimes Makes Sense [view article]
- Weekly Market Outlook: June 30th - July 4th [view article]
- While Iran Threat Keeps Oil Elevated, U.S. Stocks and Dollar Slip [view article]
- Another Record Oil Surge Leans on Stocks and Dollar [view article]
- Currency Counter-Cyclicality [view article]
- Dollar Reversal Underway? [view article]
- FOMC Preview: What To Expect from the Fed [view article]
- Weekly Market Commentary: June 23th - June 27th [view article]
loading ...Recent FXB Articles
- Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing
- The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook
- While Iran Threat Keeps Oil Elevated, U.S. Stocks and Dollar Slip
- Weekly Market Outlook: June 30th - July 4th
- Another Record Oil Surge Leans on Stocks and Dollar
- Owning Things That Don't Do Much Sometimes Makes Sense
- FOMC Preview: What To Expect from the Fed
- Weekly Market Commentary: June 23th - June 27th
- Dollar Reversal Underway?
- Currency Counter-Cyclicality
- Full List of Articles »
Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
Hi, Les,I am not aware of much research on currency ETFs. They are probably too new to attract much attention from analysts. However, even if they were I would be skeptical of their opinions. I'm equally skeptical of my own. No one can do much of a reliable prediction in this type of market, in my opinion. Things can turn on a dime at the slightest quiver of a wind from any direction.
I have read a book on trading currencies, and I thought it was fairly good. Remember, all we have are opinions, and currency trading (vs. investing) is not necessairly a teachable subject. The book I read is : Getting Started in Currency Trading by Michael Duane Archer. It is probably out of print, but I found a copy at Amazon. Also, there are a couple of authors who contribute to Seeking Alpha. Chen and Lieu (if my spelling is correct) are two you might check on.
I would encourage you to approach this subject with the greatest caution, and consider, instead, currency investing--something like the carry trade. Trading is fast paced and will eat you up fast if you are not exceptionally able to cope with it. Few are!
Good luck.
Ray0 Reply
Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
Ray: Is there any good, reliable, non-biased research available (at a reasonable cost) for currency EFT's. I'm a novice and have been unsuccessful in my limited amout of trading experience, but would like to learn.Les Reply
Time To Short the British Pound? [view article]
be careful with the etn's. they are not the same as the etf's. ReplyThe Ponzi
Scheme
Would Last?
The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
There is a simple 2 part answer to keeping your wealth.1) If the dollar is to survive, interest rates must rise. If this happens then stocks, which are in bubble land due to low rates, will crash like 1980s or maybe even 1929-1932. So, buy long term deep out of the money puts to cover you there.
2) If Ben B decided to keep his word that he will not follow in the footsteps of the 1929 fed then you need to get out of the USD. In fact, there is no such safe currency if the USD loses its spot as the worlds reserve currency because Euros will have to be printed like crazy to take up the slack in the market place. The safe hedge there is gold.
So, buy gold and hedge this with long put leaps. IMO you will end up making money on both sides of this trade because the US debt is so high that the USD probably can't be saved. Reply
Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
Thanks for this timely and comprehensive report! ReplyFinding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
I haven't been following CNY, since I detest most ETNs, and your report reaffirms my view on this instrument. I believe CYN is one of the ETNs that doesn't pay dividends, so the interest income, if any (and the Chinese Yuan is the last place I would go to earn interest) you will see only to the extent their forward contracts include any such accumulation. Apparently they are not. The reason for this, I believe, is that China pays less than 1% on their foreign deposits, so that precludes leaving any money there. But, even worse,the yuan is mostly traded through forward contracts which the providers "hope" will include some interest earnings. But, you can't prove that by me--especially with most ETNs.Also, even Wisdom Tree, whose yuan fund I like more than Van Eck's, only pays dividends on an annual basis--if I recall this correctly. China is not a good place to play the carry trade.
I thank you for your post. Our readers need to know how these differences will affect them and their investments.
Best wishes,
Ray Reply
Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
Ray,I bought CNY on 4/17 @40.11 and it is now 39.78 RatesFX yuan value for 4/17 was 7.18812 and on 7/04 was 6.86425 The yuan has appreciated 4.51% while the ETN has depreciated 0.82% Very poor correlation between cash and ETN Reply
Six Ways to Trade Foreign Currencies [view article]
CNY ive held since initial offering and its basically flat while my everbank renembi account so far increases about 1% a month .Wish I could explain or better wish Van Eck could. Market nerves about backer Morgan Stanley ? Reply
Finding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
For ETFs the providers list their assets under management on a daily basis. For ETNs they list the indicative value, which is the last price per share times the number of shares outstanding.Best wishes,
Ray Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
The dollar had rallied after the ECB 25 basis poitn raise. This seemed unexpected to many currency followers. A market recap has suggested that the reason for this rally was the ECB's comments after the raise. The ECB apparently saw no immediate need for further raises in the near future. This seems like a logical reason. ReplyFinding Your Comfort Zone with Currency Investing [view article]
I'm curious as to how you got the asset amounts for the tables above. Since these are ETFs, can one take the current Market Cap as total assets? ReplyThe U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
If the inflation factor is 10% and the market is going down 20%, then you are 10% ahead by staying in cash.There is **no** reason to bottom fish these days. When the market turns around, it is not going to blow up because there is so much supply, both stocks and bonds, that these holders of those assets are more than happy to sell on any pop.
Remember, the time ratio of bull to bear markets is roughly 3:1. You'll have more than enough time to make good, in a better risk environment, money. Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
User119604Nothing will get fixed as long as people like you that it is too hard.
You have no faith in people at all. You believe they cannot take care of themselves and need someone superior (like yourself?) to care for them. How did we survive until now? How did humans make it this far? Nanny state is a new creation, built on the notion that people will take care of themselves UNLESS THEY DON'T HAVE TO. If we had a society where people had to take care of themselves, they would. How did we live without Social Security and Medicare? Humans are 40,000 years old, Medicare is significantly younger. We can live without it.
How to get out of Iraq? 1. Put the troops on boats. 2. Sail the boats back to USA.
The Fed did not save us from Bear. The Fed caused inflation, the IB's got greedy because they believed that the Fed had their backs. Why did they believe this? Ask Fuld and Dimon, they are on the Board of the New york Fed. Had the Fed not existed in the first place, and had we been on a gold standard, Bear would never have been able to get so big as to threaten the entire system. Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
Good article and good comments. The one area that no one touched on was how do we get the debt under control. How to fix the dollar,which is the weakest that I have ever seen, is going to take multiple solutions.1. Abolish the Fed and go back to gold backing- not sure this is a viable solution at least in the short run.
2. Balance the US Federal budget- how? Let's face it- the politicians are going to have to bite the bullet and implement tax reform starting with raising taxes. I know this will raise an outcry those from those who will have their ox gourd but even Buffet and Soros who are capitalist have stepped forward and admitted that there is going disparity between the haves and have nots in this country. Tweaking the tax system to get our National debt under control will strengthen the dollar and curtail inflation.
3. Privatize Social Security- can not agree with this solution. It be a wind fall for those in the investment field but unless there is a mandatory program for SS, Americans will not fund any safety net no matter how trival it may be. I recognize that SS is not a life support system especially the way it is currently set up, but at least it provides something to those who don't know how to manage and save for retirement. If anything, the collection system needs to be revamped to properly take into account the spiraling inflation that is not measured accurately by our BLS.
4. Abolish Medicare- again a crazy idea. If anything, this needs to be resolved with a system that provides for the those who are not covered with medical insurance. I would support a duel system of private insurance and one government funded.
5. Get out of Iraq- how?? I agree but one cannot leave there without filling the vacuum that would be created by our leaving. If anything, the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating. So leaving Iraq doesn't mean we are goig to be out of the area. We had no business being in Iraq and the consequences of our conduct never really measured by those who put us there. But, we are there and the situation needs to be resolved properly. It appears progress is being made and a government may be coming together.
6. Unregulate the US economy so that it can at least compete on an even footing with the other un-regulated economies in nations where all our jobs have been going. Not sure this is the answer as I look at what happened when we did that in the Airline industry- now in collapse, the steel industry, the communication industry, the banking and financial sector ( total collapse had the Fed not stepped in to save us in the BSC situation and we are not done yet), and what about the energy/ utility industry that brought us ENRON. Government has a role to play but it too must be controlled in what thye do and how they do it. I don't have the answers but I know from life experience that wild swigs occur when things are left to there own ends.
Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook [view article]
It is no more complex than this: The Federal Reserve is a private bank, set up by private banks to protect their interests. Fuld and Dimon are on the Board of the New York Fed. The Fed can be counted on to act in the best interests of the banks. If saving the banks means inflating away my life savings and my parents' pensions, then that is what they will do. Count on it.In other words, self-dealing bankers get to control the economies of the world.
Want to fix the dollar?
1. Abolish the Fed and go back to gold backing.
2. Balance the US Federal budget.
3. Privatize Social Security.
4. Abolish Medicare.
5. Get out of Iraq.
6. Unregulate the US economy so that it can at least compete on an even footing with the other un-regulated economies in nations where all our jobs have been going.
Now that the economic bright boys on Wall Street are losing their jobs, maybe we'll be able to get some consensus on jobs. "Financial innovation" my ass. "Service economy" my ass. Let's make stuff and sell it overseas for foreign exchange reserves. Reply