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Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 5:56 AM
Several sources say Italy has held preliminary talks with the IMF about financial aid, though no decisions have been made yet. A formal request for assistance, if there will be one at all, is unlikely to come before PM Monti presents his budget on Dec. 5.
4 Comments[Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 5:51 AM
Eurozone unemployment rises to 10.3% in October from 10.2% in September, in line with forecasts. The usual suspects of Spain and Greece have the highest jobless rate. (PR .pdf)
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 5:43 AM
Eurozone inflation remains at 3% in November for the third month in a row, in line with forecasts. The figure is well above the ECB's target of just below 2% and could lessen the likelihood of further easing from the bank despite pressure on it to do so. (PR .pdf)
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 5:07 AM
Europe hopes that the IMF will match and support the expanded EFSF, although it's not certain how enthusiastic the U.S., Japan and China would be, not to mention the less well-off countries. As one G20 official puts it, "Nobody wants to spend money on something they doubt would work."
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 3:24 AM
European finmins meeting last night were told Italy is at risk of insolvency, according to a confidential report obtained by The Guardian. The report said new Italian PM Mario Monti will have to do more than already promised to shore up the country's finances and avoid a sovereign liquidity crisis which could be devastating for the euro and for the Spanish and German economies.
24 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 12:49 PM
Writing in the WSJ, Mark Gongloff calls on the ECB to print money, as it's failing in its mandate of ensuring price stability - on the downside. Gongloff quotes MKM's Michael Darda, who says the ECB’s errors are "creating the real risk of a deflationary collapse in the periphery," so "no amount of austerity would be able to balance budgets."
2 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 12:18 PM
Zero Hedge carries a flow chart from TF Market Advisors that is its "best attempt" to to capture everything the eurozone bailout fund does. "If it looks complicated, that is because it is complicated," is the resounding selling point. Easier to understand is TF's written explanation.
2 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 12:08 PM
The ECB fails to fully "sterilize" its bond purchases at its weekly tender, and KBC's Piet Lammens says it highlights growing stress. Lammens downplays the monetary-policy implications, although one economist says if the ECB doesn't hold another tender to mop up the excess liquidity, it would amount to money printing, a major policy change.
Comment![Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 12:06 PM
"It's a death struggle for this currency," says FX Concepts chief John Taylor of the euro. "What's stupid is that the ECB is holding it up. Why?" Making the euro tough to short is that the bleaker the situation gets, the more likely it gets for governments to do something, sending the currency higher. This whipsaw nature has relegated Taylor's funds to poor performance in 2011.
Comment![Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 11:23 AM
Adding to the absence of a bazooka at the EU finmins meeting, Angela Merkel tells members of her right-wing coalition that she won't make a deal in which she will drop her opposition to eurobonds in exchange for strengthening eurozone fiscal rules, saying for good measure that the EU is "a long way" from such debt collectivization.
2 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 9:42 AM
Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter - not shy about haranguing the ECB to rev up the printing press - sees the EU in recession for the next 2 years. Seeing the figures, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wonders how the EU can possibly hold together as the economic downturn in the PIIGS will be especially devastating.
Comment![Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 5:54 AM
The latest Italian bond auction results in yields on 3-year paper rising to a euro-era record of 7.89% from 4.93% only a month ago. The yield on a 10-year bond increased to a fresh high of 7.56% vs. 6.06%. Still, at least Italy was able to raise €7.5B ($10.06B), near the top end of its goal of €5-8B.
3 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 4:00 AMBets against the euro are at a 17-month high, according to data from the CFTC; as of Nov. 22, bets that the euro will weaken against the dollar outstripped bullish positions by $14.4B, an 11% increase from the week before.
Comment![Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 3:51 AM
Nomura has sharply cut its exposure to eurozone debt over the last two months, bringing down its PIIGS exposure to $884M from $3.55B, and Nomura's not the only one cutting its potential losses...
1 Comment[Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 3:10 AM
France may be in line for a downgrade, according to a report in French newspaper La Tribune. Several unnamed sources say S&P could downgrade the outlook on France's AAA rating in the next 7-10 days, ahead of lowering the credit rating itself.
3 Comments[Global & FX]
Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 3:01 AM
European markets look set to open flat ahead of today's meeting of European finmins, where officials are expected to agree on details to leverage the EFSF and approve Greece's next bailout payment. Investors will likely be disappointed if that's all the meeting produces, as reports have circulated about plans for heightened fiscal integration.
5 Comments[Global & FX]
Thomas Pan Euribor is set by 42 banks in Europe while Libor is set by 16 banks in London FXEIEV
6/12/10
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Thomas Pan Libor is for individual banks to borrow money at while euribor is for a prime, or big bank to borrow at FXEIEV
6/12/10
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Thomas Pan Euribor money market rates have risen above euro Libor rates FXEIEV
6/12/10
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jschulmansr For FXE $121.16 first resistance then strong resistance at $122, my target which may not happen til late next week is $118.86, then $117.50
6/11/10
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jschulmansr same trades FXE puts BP puts GLD calls since felt price action was taking from overbought/oversold levels only not beginning of new trends
6/11/10
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jschulmansr yesterday was travelin so couldnt detail actions. Got stopped out of GLD, FXE, BP all in nice 30% or better profits. Then re-entered
6/11/10
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Thomas Pan European banking shares indicate a Greek debt default may be just a matter of time IEVFXE
6/11/10
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Thomas Pan Trichet said the European Central Bank will extend its offerings of unlimited cash and keep buying government bonds FXEIEV
6/11/10
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