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Friday, May 3, 8:00 AM "We don't want to sell in May and we continue to prefer cyclicals (XLY, XLI, XLB, XLE) ," says JPMorgan's Tom Lee, fully returned to his normal bullish stance. He notes client positioning is "dramatically different" from the heavily long stance of the last 3 years at this time. More, the downturn in gasoline prices could ad 50 bps to GDP in Q2, and the rally in high-yield suggests the economy is set to get stronger. 1 Comment
Thursday, March 21, 9:38 AM Goldman Sachs believes the selloff in oil service stocks creates a buying opportunity, as it sees Q1 earnings growing at a faster rate driven by completion work. The firm expects Halliburton (HAL) to report in-line Q1 results and recommends buying on the recent pullback, suggests Basic Energy (BAS) on better utilization, and likes Nabors Industries (NBR) on relative valuation. 9 Comments [Energy, Quick Ideas]
Wednesday, February 20, 3:21 PM Why the tumbling price of crude matters? The energy sector (XLE) has been the clear leader in 2013's rally, notes ukarlewitz. If it turns, will another sector step up or will energy lead the way down? Comment! [Energy, On the Move]
Thursday, January 31, 11:57 AM Fidelity Contrafund manager Will Danoff is cautious about the energy sector (XLE), noting some companies continue to chase growth at the expense of returns. The industry - which made a massive investment in shale gas, causing prices to collapse - is doing the same thing with shale oil, he says. Comment! [Energy]
Friday, December 14, 2012, 7:50 AM The oil services sector sees some action from Goldman Sachs, which upgrades Marathon Oil (MRO) to Buy, with $39 price target. Marathon sticks out from its industry brethren, says Goldman, thanks to improved execution in Eagle Ford and Bakken shale plays. Also reportedly liked by Goldman are Halliburton (HAL) and Occidental (OXY). 1 Comment [Energy, Quick Ideas]
Friday, October 19, 2012, 12:48 PM More on yesterday's Goldman oil call: It includes a cool chart plotting the breakeven point on all of the planet's major oil projects. Goldman estimates the industry needs $115 oil to be cash flow neutral on its exploration vs. just $84 four years ago. "Further capex growth from current levels will likely be more constrained unless oil prices move higher." 7 Comments [Commodities, Energy]
Friday, October 12, 2012, 2:29 PM The natural gas rig count declined again last week, falling by 15 to 422 vs. 936 a year ago. The number of working gas rigs is the lowest since June 1999, but this may not mean a supply crunch is coming as oil rig activity - which yields plenty of natural gas - remains strong. Still, it's hard not to notice the correlation between collapsing gas rig counts and natural gas prices up about 90% in 6 months. 7 Comments [Commodities, Energy]
Wednesday, October 10, 2012, 7:17 AM Iraq predicts oil production of 9-10M barrels/day by 2020, far higher than yesterday's bullish IEA prediction of 6.1M. The country's deputy PM for Energy says Iraq has underway a plan to address the infrastructure bottlenecks raised by the IEA. 2 Comments [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Tuesday, October 9, 2012, 2:42 PM Iraq is expected to contribute almost half of increased world oil production between now and 2035, says the IEA. and the country would leap over Iran and Venezuela to sit behind Saudi Arabia as the second most influential member of OPEC. Of late though, the country has been missing production targets thanks to insecurity and a lack of infrastructure. That's where U.S. oil service firms come in. 4 Comments [Energy]
Thursday, September 27, 2012, 3:31 PM The cure for low prices is low prices. Left for dead a few months back, natural gas soars today to its highest price this year as the multi-year collapse in working rig counts looks to finally be taking effect. UNG +3%. The double-levered oil & gas ETF (DIG), +30.1% in Q3. 12 Comments [Energy, Commodities, On the Move]
Monday, August 20, 2012, 4:24 PM While 80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average, all of the defensive sectors - Telecom, Consumer staples, Health care, Utilities - have readings below that. The most defensive of them all - Utilities - shows just 39% of the sector above the 50-day, a sharp change from just 2 weeks ago, when 90% were above. "The dynamic has clearly changed," writes Bespoke, with cyclical sectors now leading the charge. 7 Comments
Friday, August 17, 2012, 8:59 AM Another graphic look (via ukarlewitz) at the recent rally which is notable for its rotation into roughed up sectors like Energy, Materials, Industrials, and Discretionary, and out of popular defensive plays like Utilities, Health Care, and Staples. Have the hedge funds been caught wrong-footed again? 2 Comments
Tuesday, August 7, 2012, 11:28 AM A graphic look at the rotation into neglected sectors - Energy (XLE), Discretionary (XLY), Cyclical (FCL), and Retail (XRT) are all moving higher the past few sessions, while the popular mREITs (represented by NLY), Utilities (XLU), Pharmaceuticals (IHE), and Staples (XLP) all sell off. 4 Comments
Thursday, July 12, 2012, 10:55 AM Natural gas plunges following the small add in inventories last week despite cooling degree days being 50% higher than normal. UNG -3.3%. Producers: APA -2.7%, CHK -3.7%, APC -2.8%. 15 Comments [Energy, Commodities]
Wednesday, June 27, 2012, 6:04 AM The growth of new sources of oil, helped by the widening use of fracking, is expected to enable the U.S. to halve its reliance on Middle East oil by 2020 and possibly eliminate it completely by 2035. By the end of the decade, 50% of oil will be produced domestically and 82% on this side of the Atlantic. 7 Comments [Energy]
Tuesday, June 26, 2012, 9:53 AM "Has peak oil peaked," asks Liam Denning in the sort of article you see after crude has declined 25% in less than 2 months. Oil producers (and consumers) over the coming years are set to harvest the benefits of a decade of investment spurred by years of high prices, argues former oil exec Leonard Maugeri. 14 Comments [Commodities, Energy]

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