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Friday, May 24, 7:01 AM
Stock index futures are shaky after an ugly session in Japan. Following its 7.3% plunge on Thursday, shares bounced nearly 4% as the yen resumed sinking. This soon reversed and shares plunged anew - dropping about 7% from their session high. The Nikkei eventually eked out a small gain as the yen (FXY) closed stronger again, dollar/yen falling 0.6% to ¥101.46. S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.5%, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -0.5%. Japan: EWJ -2.6%, DXJ -3.7% premarket. Europe (FEZ) -0.5%.
2 Comments
Friday, May 24, 3:41 AM
The yen is higher vs the dollar as volatility in the currency markets somewhat echo the gyrations in Japanese stock markets. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says that the BOJ has no set target for the yen and that stability in Japanese debt market is "extremely desirable." His comments follow the extreme instability yesterday, when 10-year JGB yields rose as high as 1%, prompting the BOJ to step in with a fund-supplying operation. Dollar -0.5% at -¥101.54.
Comment![Global & FX, Top Stories]
Thursday, May 23, 9:07 PM
A rebound in Tokyo sees the Nikkei (EWJ) gaining 3% in early action following yesterday's 7% dive. A weaker yen (FXY) is helping, dollar/yen gaining 0.4% to ¥102.37.
7 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, May 23, 4:42 AM
Even Japanese stocks are subject to the law of gravity (who knew?) as a confluence of factors sends the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) plunging 7.3% on the session (the swing from intraday high to low was ~9%). Yields on JGB 10s (JGBL) spiked above 1% at one point as an already skittish and volatile market was further rattled by what have generally been perceived as hawkish comments out of Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials on Wednesday. Yields pulled back in late trading. Compounding the problem for Japanese stocks was the yen (FXY), which has strengthened some 2% against the dollar to 101.16 most recently. (See also: China HSBC flash PMI shows contraction)
8 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 22, 10:42 AMBernanke: Stocks continue with solid gains as the chairman suggests the Fed may never sell the massive assets it's accumulated, instead just letting them roll down. Most interesting are Treasury prices (TLT -1.1%) rolling over - the 10-year yield sunk to 1.89% as Bernanke's soft comments hit the tape, but has reversed to now threaten 2%. Gold (GLD +0.6%) has given up much of its knee-jerk gains, and the dollar (UUP +0.3%) is having none of it, higher across the board, particularly vs. the aussie (FXA -1.1%), yen (FXY -1%), and loonie (FXC -0.6%).
5 Comments
Tuesday, May 21, 11:38 AM
In case anyone was curious, Kyle Bass continues to bet on a full-blown Japanese currency (FXY) and government debt (JGBT, JGBL, JGBS, JGBD) crisis. "This gross vs. net argument is just silly," says Bass alluding to large official and other domestic holdings of JGBs. "If they go to try and sell any of those assets, it will create a panic." Bass commissioned a poll of Japanese investors asking their reaction if the government asked them to buy JGBs amid a crisis: 8% said they would buy, 83% said they would "run, not walk" from the paper.
2 Comments[Global & FX]
Monday, May 20, 11:27 AM
Silver's (SLV -0.6%) 9% plunge in the first minutes of trading overnight is being linked to hawkish talk from Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari who warned the yen's (FXY +0.7%) fast decline may be hurting the economy. One fails to see the connection but dollar/yen did dive along with silver and Andrew Wilkinson suggests hedge funds short the yen were forced to raise cash by bailing on stale silver longs.
11 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, May 17, 3:46 PM
The yen (FXY -0.9%) legs down to a new multi-year low - the dollar now buying ¥103.24 - continuing a truly remarkable move since late last year. It's an instance where politicians told you they were going to devalue, every trader and strategist around told you they were shorting the yen, and sure enough the yen went down ... hard, and in as straight of a line as markets ever allow. Ah, if it were always that easy. Other ETFs: JYN, YCL, YCN.
4 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Friday, May 17, 9:38 AM
Did the Fed tighten while we were getting a cup of coffee? The greenback is soaring against all other currencies, with the dollar bull ETF (UUP) gaining 0.6% - an unusually large move for that vehicle. Strength against the yen (FXY -0.3%) and the aussie (FXA -0.9%) are givens of late, but the greenback is up about 1% vs. both the loonie (FXC) and the swissie (FXF), and about 0.6% vs. the euro (FXE) and cable (FXB). Getting hit are Treasurys (TLT -0.5%), the dollar bear ETF (UDN -0.6%) and of course, gold (GLD -0.7%).
5 Comments[Global & FX]
Friday, May 17, 7:29 AM
Copy the Goldman aussie forecast to the yen - its quick tumble also forcing the team to revise lower its already bearish forecasts. The analysts now see the dollar buying ¥110 twelve months out vs. ¥105 previously. The yen's (FXY) marginally stronger this morning, the dollar buying ¥102.40.
Comment![Global & FX]
Thursday, May 16, 6:26 AM
Unexpectedly weak capital spending marred an otherwise decent Japan GDP report, weighing on the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ), which fell 0.39% but still held onto the 15,000 level. The yen (FXY) was firm against the dollar for most of session, trading around ¥102, but has since lost ground, falling 0.40% to ¥102.60.
Comment!
Wednesday, May 15, 7:32 AM
The Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) soared another 2.3% overnight to top 15K for the first time since 2007 as the yen (FXY) slid 0.3% to a new multi-year low of ¥102.65. Leading was Sony (SNE), up 10% following Dan Loeb's push for a breakup. Toyota (TM) paced the exporters with a 3.7% gain. JGBs (JGBL) were calm, the yield on the 10-year flat at 0.86%.
4 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Monday, May 13, 4:56 AM
The yen (FXY) continues its slide , falling to a new four-and-a-half year low against the dollar, helping the Nikkei (NKY) post another triple-digit gain on the session, rising 1.2% to 14782, its highest level since January 2008. The weak yen comes on the heels of the G7's reportedly amicable meeting over the weekend, at which officials were generally supportive of the BOJ's policies and reiterated that Japan's goal is to fight deflation not engage in the targeting of exchange rates.
4 Comments[Global & FX]
Friday, May 10, 11:01 AM
One casualty of Friday's yen (FXY) rout are South Korean stocks (EWY -3.6%) as the Kospi falls 1.75% in Seoul. The weaker yen hurts Korea's exporters and Thursday's 25 basis point rate cut is likely no match for the BOJ's monetary bazooka.
Comment![Global & FX]
Friday, May 10, 4:37 AM
For the first time since April of 2009, the yen (FXY) fell through the 100-level against the dollar, helping the Nikkei rally nearly 3% on the session and almost 7% on the week. Japanese equities (EWJ) are now trading at levels last seen in January of 2008. Japanese capital flows data finally showed what many had been waiting for since BOJ Governor Kuroda's shot across the bow at deflation: an outflow, as Japanese investors became net buyers of foreign bonds.
6 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, May 9, 1:26 PM
The yen (FXY -0.8%) has weakened sharply in the last few minutes, with the dollar making another run at ¥100, currently buying ¥99.80. A move into triple digits would be the first time that high for the greenback in 4 years.
4 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Oriental Trader $FXY Japanese 10 year bond yields down to 0.83% again, panic easing, for now. Panic prolly on stock end. QE expectations should be fired up
Thu, 4:59 AM
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Oriental Trader $FXY Japanese selling foreign bonds + domestic yields soaring, looks like it's time to close out some yen shorts
Wed, 10:22 PM
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steppppo $FXY at new 52-week low. Long live Mr. Kuroda!
Chris DeMuth Jr. This could be a dramatic day for $FXY. Long-dated puts are still very cheap, as the price could decline a lot and volatility could go up.
Apr 4, 7:45 AM
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steppppo: Means a lot coming from you Chris. Thanks for all you do!
Apr 4, 10:18 AM
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prattner: japan is intent on self immolation. 10 jan 2014 puts, 90 strike
TheCompleatAngler: TVIX daily indicative value on 3/20 is reported as being $3.39. Currently trading at $3.80 after gaining $.11 today, as I type this.
Mar 21, 2:53 PM
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Perkins Cove: Angler....where is that place in your avatar? I may need to add it to my bucket list......grin
Mar 21, 2:58 PM
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Tom Guttenberger $FXY - this level of volatility in the yen seems pretty hard to imagine considering stability of bond market. Sell puts maybe.
Mar 8, 10:33 AM
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Hypnos7: Given the structural problems in the Japanese economy, there's no bottom apparent.
Mar 8, 10:44 AM
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Tom Guttenberger: Yes, apartently not. I personally would like to understand their trade situation with China more thoroughly.
Chris DeMuth Jr.: The constant leverage trap degrades the value of both over time (-1.26% for the bull and -17.92% for the bear over the past year).
Mar 7, 2:19 PM
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Chris DeMuth Jr.: Also, there is risk from the sponsors. And one can front run how they are traded/structured. I have no position in TMV but would short it.
Mar 7, 2:20 PM
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Dr. Kris BOJ QE is working--Yen ($FXY) shedding 17% since Oct. Time for a trip to Japan? I hear it's lovely in spring.
Feb 5, 2:01 PM
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neobliviscar: Wait for 110-120 yen to the $USD. Deflation o housing prices, elderly populi, etc, and by 2020-2030 Kyoto w/ be nice place 2 retire as expat
Feb 5, 3:54 PM
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Dr. Kris: Similar situation expected here & in Europe since young population is decreasing.
Feb 5, 11:32 PM
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Chris DeMuth Jr. $FXY @ new 52-week low. Many more BOJ governors to come and go. More lows to break. This short is my favorite for the next ten years.
Feb 5, 2:01 PM
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SKS1586: Awesome - I have the same opinion as you.
Feb 5, 2:19 PM
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Tom Guttenberger Went long $FXY through calls today. Enough of a nosedive for now I think.
Jan 23, 9:59 AM
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Tom Guttenberger: True, I think the BOJ has gotten the market to react how it had hoped. Probably will return to current account surplus.P/E on EWJ reasonable