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Thursday, May 23, 4:42 AM
Even Japanese stocks are subject to the law of gravity (who knew?) as a confluence of factors sends the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) plunging 7.3% on the session (the swing from intraday high to low was ~9%). Yields on JGB 10s (JGBL) spiked above 1% at one point as an already skittish and volatile market was further rattled by what have generally been perceived as hawkish comments out of Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials on Wednesday. Yields pulled back in late trading. Compounding the problem for Japanese stocks was the yen (FXY), which has strengthened some 2% against the dollar to 101.16 most recently. (See also: China HSBC flash PMI shows contraction)
8 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Monday, May 20, 11:27 AM
Silver's (SLV -0.6%) 9% plunge in the first minutes of trading overnight is being linked to hawkish talk from Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari who warned the yen's (FXY +0.7%) fast decline may be hurting the economy. One fails to see the connection but dollar/yen did dive along with silver and Andrew Wilkinson suggests hedge funds short the yen were forced to raise cash by bailing on stale silver longs.
11 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, May 17, 3:46 PM
The yen (FXY -0.9%) legs down to a new multi-year low - the dollar now buying ¥103.24 - continuing a truly remarkable move since late last year. It's an instance where politicians told you they were going to devalue, every trader and strategist around told you they were shorting the yen, and sure enough the yen went down ... hard, and in as straight of a line as markets ever allow. Ah, if it were always that easy. Other ETFs: JYN, YCL, YCN.
4 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 15, 7:32 AM
The Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) soared another 2.3% overnight to top 15K for the first time since 2007 as the yen (FXY) slid 0.3% to a new multi-year low of ¥102.65. Leading was Sony (SNE), up 10% following Dan Loeb's push for a breakup. Toyota (TM) paced the exporters with a 3.7% gain. JGBs (JGBL) were calm, the yield on the 10-year flat at 0.86%.
4 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Thursday, May 9, 1:26 PM
The yen (FXY -0.8%) has weakened sharply in the last few minutes, with the dollar making another run at ¥100, currently buying ¥99.80. A move into triple digits would be the first time that high for the greenback in 4 years.
4 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Friday, April 26, 11:10 AM
The yen (FXY +1.6%) races higher, unwinding a bit of what had been about the world's most one-sided trade for the last 6 months. First comes price action then come excuses, and about the best reasons for today's slide in dollar/yen is the BOJ upping its economic forecast at last night's policy meeting, and the weak U.S. GDP print. The surging yen is hitting the year's hottest ETF, DXJ -1.7%.
2 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Tuesday, April 16, 8:28 AM
After continuing to strengthen sharply in early trade overnight, the yen is back in full retreat, down more than 1% vs. the dollar which is now buying ¥97.88. Along with the big reversal came a big swing in the Nikkei, which fell more than 2% at one point, but closed down just 0.4%. FXY -1.1%, EWJ +0.6%, DXJ +0.5% premarket.
Comment![Global & FX, On the Move]
Thursday, April 11, 3:54 AM
The Nikkei jumps 2% to 13,549.16, its highest close since July 2008, as the Bank of Japan's aggressive easing policy continues to turbo charge the market. The yen is up a bit vs the dollar, but is at 99.67 and still threatening 100. Meanwhile, other Asian shares are mixed. Hong Kong +0.2%, China -0.3%, India +0.2%.
Comment![Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move]
Monday, April 8, 2:38 PM
A renewed surge in the dollar vs. the yen (FXY -1.5%) , is leading/following/coincident to the rebound in stocks this afternoon. Now buying ¥99.25, the dollar is poised to crack ¥100 for the first time since April 2009. Vince Cignarella suggests chart watchers (who comprise the vast majority of fx traders) are eying the ¥99.75 level.
Comment![Global & FX, On the Move]
Sunday, April 7, 8:31 PM
The yen (FXY) tumbles another 1% vs. the dollar as a new report suggests the BOJ plans to move fast and move big with JGB purchases. Buying less than ¥93 moments before the BOJ announced aggressive new easing measures Thursday, the dollar this moment is worth ¥98.51. The Nikkei adds 2.8% in early Tokyo trade, giving it a middling 8.6% gain since Thursday.
16 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Friday, April 5, 3:54 AMJapanese shares jumped as high as 4.7% and passed the psychologically important 13,000 level for the first time since August 2008 before pulling back somewhat to close +1.6% at 12,834 as investors cashed in. Shares continued to be boosted by the BOJ's plan for aggressive monetary easing, which also pushed the yen to as low as 97 to the dollar before the rate moderated to ¥96.39. Comment![Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move]
Thursday, April 4, 11:03 AM
It's a true "regime change" at the BOJ, says Citigroup, commenting on the central bank's new easing measures overnight. Gone is any hint of concern about monetizing government paper, and up next may be additional stimulus in the form of equity purchases and loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. The yen (FXY -3.6%) continues a whopper of a move lower, the dollar now at a session-high ¥96.38. The currency-hedged Japan stock ETF (DXJ) gains 7.5% vs. the unhedged EWJ +3.8%.
4 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Thursday, April 4, 2:07 AM
The Nikkei (NKY) surges and the yen (FXY) plummets after the Bank of Japan starts firing the heavy artillery in its battle against deflation. Under new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the BOJ is changing its target when setting policy from the overnight call rate to the monetary base, which the bank aims to double within two years by purchasing ¥60-70T of assets a year, including government bonds of all maturities and not just short-term debt. The plan is open-ended and was unanimously approved. The Nikkei is +1.3% after being lower earlier, while the dollar is +1.5% vs the yen. (PR)
14 Comments[Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move]
Friday, March 22, 8:04 AM
The Nikkei dives 2.4% and the yen (FXY) strengthens 0.4% as new BOJ Governor Kuroda's ex-colleagues express doubt about his vows to hit a 2% inflation target. Included was the man formerly known as Mr. Yen for his ability to divine (and drive) the currency's moves - Eisuke Sakakibara - saying the inflation rate "will never reach 2% ... the deflation is structural." EWJ -0.6% , DXJ -0.4% premarket.
2 Comments[Global & FX, On the Move]
Monday, March 18, 2:57 AMAsian shares fall sharply following news of the raid on bank deposits in Cyprus as part of the island's bailout. The planned move also sends the euro and oil lower, while the yen regains its safe-haven status. Japan -2.7%, Hong Kong -2.4%, China -1.5%, India -0.9%. Euro -1.3% vs the dollar, -1.3% vs the pound, -2.2% vs the yen and -0.6% vs the Swiss franc. The yen is also +0.9% vs the dollar. WTI -1.2%, gold +0.3%.
Comment![Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move]
Thursday, February 28, 2:06 AM
The yen is lower against the dollar following Haruhiko Kuroda's nomination as the BOJ governor, with the greenback +0.2% at ¥92.41. The Nikkei rises 2.1% after falling sharply in the previous two sessions. Kuroda has advocated an inflation target for the BOJ for over a decade and reckons Japan can hit 2% within two years.
3 Comments[Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move]
Oriental Trader $FXY Japanese 10 year bond yields down to 0.83% again, panic easing, for now. Panic prolly on stock end. QE expectations should be fired up
Thu, 4:59 AM
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Oriental Trader $FXY Japanese selling foreign bonds + domestic yields soaring, looks like it's time to close out some yen shorts
Wed, 10:22 PM
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steppppo $FXY at new 52-week low. Long live Mr. Kuroda!
Chris DeMuth Jr. This could be a dramatic day for $FXY. Long-dated puts are still very cheap, as the price could decline a lot and volatility could go up.
Apr 4, 7:45 AM
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steppppo: Means a lot coming from you Chris. Thanks for all you do!
Apr 4, 10:18 AM
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prattner: japan is intent on self immolation. 10 jan 2014 puts, 90 strike
TheCompleatAngler: TVIX daily indicative value on 3/20 is reported as being $3.39. Currently trading at $3.80 after gaining $.11 today, as I type this.
Mar 21, 2:53 PM
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Perkins Cove: Angler....where is that place in your avatar? I may need to add it to my bucket list......grin
Mar 21, 2:58 PM
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Tom Guttenberger $FXY - this level of volatility in the yen seems pretty hard to imagine considering stability of bond market. Sell puts maybe.
Mar 8, 10:33 AM
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Hypnos7: Given the structural problems in the Japanese economy, there's no bottom apparent.
Mar 8, 10:44 AM
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Tom Guttenberger: Yes, apartently not. I personally would like to understand their trade situation with China more thoroughly.
Chris DeMuth Jr.: The constant leverage trap degrades the value of both over time (-1.26% for the bull and -17.92% for the bear over the past year).
Mar 7, 2:19 PM
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Chris DeMuth Jr.: Also, there is risk from the sponsors. And one can front run how they are traded/structured. I have no position in TMV but would short it.
Mar 7, 2:20 PM
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Dr. Kris BOJ QE is working--Yen ($FXY) shedding 17% since Oct. Time for a trip to Japan? I hear it's lovely in spring.
Feb 5, 2:01 PM
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neobliviscar: Wait for 110-120 yen to the $USD. Deflation o housing prices, elderly populi, etc, and by 2020-2030 Kyoto w/ be nice place 2 retire as expat
Feb 5, 3:54 PM
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Dr. Kris: Similar situation expected here & in Europe since young population is decreasing.
Feb 5, 11:32 PM
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Chris DeMuth Jr. $FXY @ new 52-week low. Many more BOJ governors to come and go. More lows to break. This short is my favorite for the next ten years.
Feb 5, 2:01 PM
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SKS1586: Awesome - I have the same opinion as you.
Feb 5, 2:19 PM
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Tom Guttenberger Went long $FXY through calls today. Enough of a nosedive for now I think.
Jan 23, 9:59 AM
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Tom Guttenberger: True, I think the BOJ has gotten the market to react how it had hoped. Probably will return to current account surplus.P/E on EWJ reasonable