SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF)
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- Persian Gulf to Drive the Next Big Agricultural Boom [view article]
- The Emerging Markets Cell Phone Index [view article]
- Investing in the Middle East: A New Frontier Heats Up [view article]
- Investing in Africa: The World's Last Great Opportunity [view article]
- ETFs: Implications of Goldman Sachs Predictions [view article]
- No. 1 U.S. Export Is: Wealth [view article]
- Two Ways To Profit from Frontier Markets [view article]
- Middle Eastern Equities and Oil [view article]
- How the U.S. Financial Crisis Resembles Japan’s 'Lost Decade' - And How to Play It, Part II [view article]
- Investing in Emerging, Frontier and Obscure Markets [view article]
- Defining ETF Risk: Does It Pass the "Smell" Test? [view article]
- Lehman's a Lemon - Fast Money Recap (6/9/08) [view article]
Recent GAF Articles
- Persian Gulf to Drive the Next Big Agricultural Boom
- The Emerging Markets Cell Phone Index
- No. 1 U.S. Export Is: Wealth
- Investing in the Middle East: A New Frontier Heats Up
- ETFs: Implications of Goldman Sachs Predictions
- Middle Eastern Equities and Oil
- Israeli Companies and CPI-Linked Debt
- How the U.S. Financial Crisis Resembles Japan’s 'Lost Decade' - And How to Play It, Part II
- Look to the Middle East/Northern Africa for Frontier ETFs
- What To Watch in the New Gulf States Index
- Full List of Articles »
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How the U.S. Financial Crisis Resembles Japan’s 'Lost Decade' - And How to Play It, Part II [view article]
Mr.Patalon, interesting articles. But when comparing Japan's "lost decade" to our own situation at present, aren't you leaving out one very important difference? Technology. Last time I checked the US was still the leader in Tech. Who else even comes close? And that can make a big difference as it fosters dynamic innovation and advances in almost all areas and industries.Of course, if we don't start exploiting our own bountiful natural resources PRONTO and start on the road to energy independence NOW, all bets are off. And your doomsday scenario may very well come to pass for the US. That would be a pity but I don't think our politicians get the urgency. Reply
How the U.S. Financial Crisis Resembles Japan’s 'Lost Decade' - And How to Play It, Part II [view article]
As a long term investing strategy this article is ok. However, do not believe that Asia has decoupled from the U.S. and Europe. It's slowly changing, but all production, shipping, use of raw materials and finished products are intertwined in global trade. As the U.S. slows down dramatically, Europe, then Asia will surely follow. Caveat emptor! ReplyInvesting in Africa: The World's Last Great Opportunity [view article]
AS one who born on African continent I share some of the views expressed in this article about investing in Africa. Howevr, this writer for some reasons, withheld the most valuable piece of information-how to invest in Africa. Is there a reason why this information is available? ReplyTwo Ways To Profit from Frontier Markets [view article]
what should I do with TRAMX? buy or sell? ReplyInvesting in Emerging, Frontier and Obscure Markets [view article]
is a 1.92% expense fee on TRAMX a little high? or should I just get buy it? ReplyInvesting in Emerging, Frontier and Obscure Markets [view article]
What about TRAMX? ReplyDefining ETF Risk: Does It Pass the "Smell" Test? [view article]
Matt Hougan wrote about this very thing on June 8th and lists the exact same information plus 'tax risk' and 'counterparty risk' (in the case of commodity and leverage funds). I think you are missing the two most important risks: 'Expected Shortfall risk' and 'volatility risk'.Expected Shortfall is the extra (fat-tail) loss that is ignored using a normal distribution. By converting to a 'Stable' (logarithmic) distribution you can actually see the true risk of a frequency distribution. In other words, it is a Value-at-Risk (VaR) model that better describes the tails of a distribution. With VaR, with may think you stand to lose 3% of the portfolio value on a given day, one percent of the time (at a 99% VaR). With conditional expected shortfall (or conditional VaR) the actual loss 1% of the time may actually be 6%; like what happened this past February.
Volatility Risk is the extra risk you assume by investing in less diversified asset classes. This is a big deal with ETFs. The cause of this problem stems from the sudden interest in ETFs and the need for ETF manufacturers to gobble up their stake in the ETF real-estate game. As the land-grab for ETF shelf space continues so does the increase in volatility. The first ETFs were broad-based market indices, like the S&P 500. The next wave of ETFs was the industry sectors (health care, financials, basic materials, etc.). Because they are less diversified the risk on one industry, in terms of volatility (measured in standard deviation) is 1.3 to 8.6 times the volatility of the S&P 500. Having seized the industry sector space the ETF manufacturers went to the sub-sector frontier to build their niche (such as bio-tech); and henceforth more risk. Not to be out done, competing manufactures launched inverse funds and leveraged funds; again, more risk. Only since June of last year has the risk in new ETF’s subsided with the introduction of fixed income, real estate and some commodity ETF’s. The largest risk in managing a portfolio of ETF’s is in choosing the proper fund universe; then comes the ardent task of fundamental research and asset allocation.
Expected Shortfall is the extra (fat-tail) loss that is ignored using a normal distribution. By converting to a 'Stable' (logrithmic) distribution you can actually see the ture risk of a frequency distribution. In other words, it is a Value-at-Risk (VaR) model that better describes the tails of a distribution. With VaR, with may think you stand to lose 3% of the portfolio value on a given day, one percent of the time (at a 99% VaR). With conditional expected shortfall (or conditional VaR) the actual loss 1% of the time may actually be 6%; like what happened this past February.
Volatility Risk is the extra risk you assume by investing in less diversified asset classes. This is a big deal with ETFs. The cause of this problem stems from the sudden interest in ETFs and the need for ETF manufacturers to gobble up their stake in the ETF real-estate game.
Reply
Hawthorne
Lehman's a Lemon - Fast Money Recap (6/9/08) [view article]
The banks have bottomed???? Yeah, right!I'll let you guys snap them up, okay? Reply
Lehman's a Lemon - Fast Money Recap (6/9/08) [view article]
hahaha...yes, najarian is full of great calls. a perfect reverse barometer. Reply
Lehman's a Lemon - Fast Money Recap (6/9/08) [view article]
(Another) Great call by Najarian on TIE . I think it's ridiculous that CNBC allows him to "frontrun" his positions before he airs them on Fast Money without any constraints. Obviously, they recognize the conflicts of interest because they place constraints on others including Cramer. What do you want to bet that Pete won't say anything about TIE on today's show ?? ReplyBroad Emerging Market ETFs [view article]
Anyone have any info on stocks/etf's on Peru and/or Chile? ReplyTwo Ways To Profit from Frontier Markets [view article]
TRAMX covers some of the last true emerging markets. A Vietnam/southeast asia fund might welcome too. ReplyFinance
Investing in Israel's Cutting Edge Technologies [view article]
I'd like to pass on this fund play as well. Amidex holds the largest 35 Israeli stocks and it's crushed the US market.everydayfinance.blogsp...
Additionally, a decent tech outfit you may want to consider is BPHX. Down from prior highs, but used to be a star.
I do not own either, but they're both worth checking out. Reply
Lordi
Two Ways To Profit from Frontier Markets [view article]
Keith,Good call on TRAMX. While the 1.75% expense ratio is somewhat high, there are times to pay more for performance and reach into, as yet, difficult to hold markets. In our fairly large portfolio, we welcomed TRAMX into the mix early and have enjoyed not only a strong return thus far, but also a nearly -0.67 r^2 since inception. That makes a lot of difference in any number of circumstances.
SSGA should be soon releasing a "Southeast Asia" etf which will hold, among other states, shares from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, etc. Some are currently offered: some are not. Also, I believe SSGA is working on releasing a greater Africa etf, as well, which will allow alternative means for investing in some of the African states mentioned above.
Best,
GL Reply
Two Ways To Profit from Frontier Markets [view article]
One thing to watch out for on oil is the subsidies in India and China. While China can afford the subsidies (which are apparently driving a 500k new car a month market), India is running out of room. Agree that high priced oil is here for the medium term but watch out when one of these big BRIC countries abandons their gasoline/diesel subsidy regimes. Reply