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Jr.
Gaiam, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
(From May 12 conference call) Gaiam's CEO Rysavy commented that there will be no discussion on Real Goods until RSOL's conference call. Okay. What do you say Jirka to the investors that ponied up big time bucks to buy in at $10 only to see their investment reduced by 25% in one week. No big deal. Good idea to give Gaiam some time to figure it out.........Let's hope RSOL is not trading below 5 by EOM.Transparency? Gaiam can't and won't be transparent with their 1Q numbers because (well) their numbers are always obscured by what.........? "Too many transactions," says CEO Rysavy. No, soon or later Jirka your numbers will catch-up with you and Gaiam's share value will plummet. Given the RSOL fiasco you better make sure that you walk your talk before asking for investors money again. How many lives do you have?
70,000 B2B doors? Really? Love to know just how many are active and performing....10,000? There's absolutely no way that Gaiam has 70,000 active doors in B2B universe as it claims. Totally hogwash and BS.
At 2007 1Q & 2Q conference call, Gaiam sold the growing success of their international business and highlghting the positive contribution to B2B bottom line. Well guess what? Gaiam in 2008 1Q abruptly abandoned previous international model for a licensing model. Ok? How much cash did Gaiam spend historically in its off-shore acquisitions - specifically UK? How much cash did Gaiam spend internally to support expansion in UK? Who and how much did Gaiam receive for selling UK operation? How much has Gaiam lost in jettisoning their International model? No transparency. Investors will never know and Gaiam's analysts will certainly not challenge Rsyavy and his team to share the gruesome details.
Of course, no mention during 1Q conference call of Gaiam's #1 competitor, Lululemon. Who needs to highlight Gaiam's failed mission to address competition? No mention from Gaiam's analysts either? Why?
1Q 2008 upside, a whopping $0.02 increase in per share earnings over 1Q 2007 supported by (non-transparent) organic growth through all channels and low teen growth through 2008. Translation: PE of 15 and share value at $8 -10
And so it is finally, Gaiam's confidence is waning and the stock is plummeting today. A sad day for investors who bought in at $20 plus. Reply
Jr.
Gaiam, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
Gaiam's yoga inspired B2B channel has run into stiff competition with Lululemon positioning its stores where Gaiam's best customers live and shop. Beverly Hills, Berkeley, Calabasas, Corte Madera, Irvine, La Jolla, Newport Beach, Palo Alto, Santa Barbara, Santa Monica…. Lululemon has 22 stores in California alone (accounts for more than 20% yoga audience). Gaiam’s lauded in store-within-a-store concept is no match for the culture and experience offered by Lululemon. Gaiam's lifestyle and apparel product lines can’t compete with Lululemon's either and Gaiam’s media product which was once premium value is now budget at best. Of course, Gaiam has not yet recognized Lululemon in any of its conference calls.Gaiam’s customer experience model is obsolete and as such its customer retention is waning. Gaiam’s DNA really has no answer for it………..Gaiam’s B2C channel has had one decade to produce profits (still in the red!!!) so don’t expect big results or a home run from their subscription club going forward.
Do you really believe Jirka Rysavy, Gaiam's CEO when he says Gaiam’s subscription club is but 3 pennies away from break even? Well, how many tens of millions of dollars has Gaiam spent over the last decade to get this far? Gaiam's subscription and online model will have to explode to cover their $50M + investment. Do Gaiam shareholders have the patience to see this aging elephant revive itself?
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Editors
General Discussion on GAIA
Is this a buy or a sell? ReplyDwinnell
Gaiam Won't Stay Off of Wall Street Radar for Long [view article]
Yes clarification is needed here.. Californina is 2/3 the solar market and RSOL happens to be a big player in California. ReplyGaiam Won't Stay Off of Wall Street Radar for Long [view article]
"which installs residential solar energy systems in California, and claims 2/3 of the residential solar market"I don't believe this to be true. This should be clarified because that is a VERY big claim. I'm quite sure that these guys do no have 2/3 of California's residential solar market. Reply
Gaiam Won't Stay Off of Wall Street Radar for Long [view article]
GAIA was a great buy early last year. I picked up some in the $12s. If you buy this at $25 or more, be ready to get out with the first big jump up, if it happens. Every dog has its day...ALY, FTK, TARR, GSOL, HW, BAA, GNK...they come and they go...and come again?? ReplyGaiam Won't Stay Off of Wall Street Radar for Long [view article]
There is a very very large short interest in GAIA and I think they are going to have a problem. The knock on GAIA is that it is an "expensive" stock but I think this analysis is basically wrong. The significant short interest has been there for quite a while, at least since the stock was in the low teens. Now GAIA is taking public its solar operations which have a value of $5-10 per share.The original short story was predicated on the fact that GAIA wasn't bring much from the to the bottom line. The real reason for this is that they are investing heavily for the future and also expensing everything. For example, when they set up a "store within a store" all the initial expenses are run through the income statement.
The company is also investing heavily in its subscription business. Recently, gross profits have been significantly better than guidance, but GAIA has not let the difference flow to the bottom line but has instead used it to increase investment. At some point soon, GAIA is going to sharply reduce investment and start harvesting and all of this is going to hit the bottom line.
The short interest is 3 million shares and the shares are fairly tightly held by some committed longs. I think this one could be interesting.
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Time Warner Cable Conquers Fear of Video-On-Demand [view article]
Hollywood still doesn't understand the value they could provide by having VoD available on the same day that theatrical releases come out. Stay at home mom's and other people unable to trek down the the local cinema would jump at the chance to be able to see a first run movie in the comfort of their own home and they'll pay for it too.The studio that is bold enough to do this is the one that's going to win the VoD war.
The Proficient Investor Reply