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Thursday, May 9, 7:05 AM Already higher ahead of the BOE policy decision, sterling (FXB) tacks on about 20 pips as a few traders were likely short on the possibility the bank surprised by re-launching its asset purchase program. The pound +0.3% at $1.5578. The FTSE (EWU) remains as it was, flat on the session. Comment! [Global & FX]
Monday, April 29, 3:09 PM Excitement for shorting the yen (FXY) has cooled among BAML's hedge fund clients, according to the firm's latest Macro Monitor. More or less a one-way trade for many months, the dollar hit a ceiling of ¥100 earlier this month and has fallen back (currently ¥98). Another popular short, the British Pound (FXB) has been costing traders money and forcing them to cover, a trend BAML suggests isn't fully played out. Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, April 25, 4:37 AM U.K. Q1 GDP +0.3% M/M vs -0.3% in Q4 and consensus of +0.1%; on year, +0.6% vs +0.2% and +0.3%. The pound (FXB) spikes as the U.K. avoids a triple-dip recession, and is +0.9% vs the dollar, although the FTSE remains lower at -0.3%. (PR) 1 Comment [Global & FX, Top Stories, Breaking News, On the Move]
Wednesday, April 24, 12:21 PM Fitch follows up on its downgrade of the U.K. by cutting the Bank of England to AA+ from AAA. "While central banks have unlimited capacity to create base money ... the profit from money creation is limited and typically channelled to the government. This reinforces the close link between the central bank and the sovereign ratings." Earlier Fitch stripped 3 Oxford colleges of their AAA. Cable (FXB) snoozes, up a few pips to $1.5250. Comment! [Global & FX, Breaking News]
Monday, April 22, 11:47 AM The FTSE sports the slightest of hangovers, losing 0.1% (EWU -0.1%) as the rest of Europe (FEZ +0.5%) moves higher following Friday's post-close credit rating downgrade of the U.K. The news is a snoozer in the Gilt market, the 10-year yield falling 2 bps to 1.65%. Cable (FXB +0.2%) had given up some ground Friday afternoon, but gained it back today. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, April 19, 12:28 PM "This is a stark reminder that the U.K. cannot simply run away from its problems," says the U.K. Treasury, responding to the Fitch downgrade. "Though it is taking time, we are fixing this country's economic problems." Cable's (FXB -0.3%) taking on a little more water now vs. the greenback, but the slide vs. the euro (FXE) today is a bit more dramatic. 1 Comment [Global & FX, Breaking News]
Friday, April 19, 12:11 PM The U.K. loses its AAA credit rating from Fitch, the agency downgrading to AA+ with stable outlook. The move is somewhat expected given Fitch had placed the country on negative watch a month ago. "The downgrade ... primarily reflects a weaker economic and fiscal outlook." Already lower on the session, cable sheds a few more pips, FXB -0.2%. 7 Comments [Global & FX]
Tuesday, April 9, 5:01 AM U.K. trade deficit in goods widens to £9.42B in February from £8.17B in January and vs consensus of £8.55B; total trade deficit widens to £3.64B from £2.49B. Exports -1.1% M/M, imports +1.7%. The largest drop in exports was in goods to non-EU countries (4.7%). Following trade and industrial production data, pound is +0.4% vs the dollar, while the FTSE pairs earlier gains and is +0.4%. (PR) Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, April 5, 12:31 PM The U.K. holds onto its AAA rating from S&P, but the outlook remains negative, meaning a one-in-three chance of a downgrade during the next two years. "We could lower the rating if we were to conclude that the pace and extent of fiscal consoldiation has slowed beyond what we currently expect." Cable (FXB) snoozes through the news, remaining +0.6%. Comment! [Global & FX, Breaking News]
Thursday, April 4, 7:24 AM Cable (FXB) adds a few pips, but remains under pressure following the BOE leaving policy unchanged, -0.3% vs. the dollar (along with all other global assets, it's higher vs. the yen). Some had thoughts of the bank restarting its QE program, but that might have to wait until Mark Carney takes the reigns in July. Comment! [Global & FX]
Tuesday, April 2, 4:36 AM U.K. manufacturing PMI edges up to 48.3 in March from 47.9 in February; Q1 average PMI slips to 49 from 49.2 in Q4. "These weak numbers may be sufficient to tip the balance and convince more members of the MPC to consider additional QE at their meeting next week," says Markit. (PR) Comment! [Global & FX, Top Stories, Breaking News]
Wednesday, March 27, 6:09 AM Various markets dive after the BOE spells out the continued massive risks to British banks. Half of the £25B that banks must raise this year has been factored into their capital-raising plans. All in all, major banks and building societies face a £50B reduction in their regulatory capital, although HSBC (HBC) doesn't face a shortfall. FTSE 100 -0.1%, S&P futures -0.2%. (PR) 1 Comment [Financials, Top Stories, On the Move, Global & FX]
Friday, March 22, 2:13 PM The U.K.'s AAA rating is placed on negative watch by Fitch, indicating the heightened probability of a near-term cut. The move is made following the U.K. estimating its government debt load will peak at a higher level and at a later time than originally forecast. Fitch expects its review of the situation to be complete by April's end. Sterling (FXB) dipped on the news, but has since recovered those lost pips. 12 Comments [Global & FX]
Thursday, March 21, 6:21 AM The U.K. budget deficit drops its lowest level in February in five years, falling to £2.76B last month from £11.8B a year earlier and vs consensus of £8B. Britain's finances were boosted by proceeds from the Bank of England from its bond-buying scheme and the sale of mobile-phone spectrum. (PR) Comment! [Global & FX]
Thursday, March 21, 6:13 AM U.K. retail sales +2.5% Y/Y in February vs -0.5% in January and consensus of +0.5%. On month, sales +2.1% vs -0.7% and +0.5%. The growth was due to consumers returning to shops after heavy snow in January. The figures come a day after the U.K. announced measures that could support further consumer spending. The pound jumps and is now +0.5% vs the dollar. (PR) Comment! [Global & FX]
Wednesday, March 20, 9:06 AM More on Osborne's monetary activism: The Chancellor speaks of an "updated remit" for the Bank of England in which the official inflation target would remain at 2%, but "intermediate thresholds" would allow the MPC to more or less ignore it (it's done a pretty good job of that already). This could set the stage for GDP-targeting at the BOE. Sterling (FXB) is moving about quite a bit, but currently flat on the session. The FTSE (EWU) +0.2%. Comment! [Global & FX]

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