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Thursday, May 23, 11:55 AM
"The Real Bubble is Gold: and It's Deflating," writes MKM's Mike Darda, who says the key turning point was the metal's (GLD. IAU) failure to rally in wake of last fall's QE∞ inception. "Investors simply took it at face value that gold was soaring and would continue to rise because of (the Fed)." Inflation picking up will be even worse for gold, he says, as this would make the Fed an aggressive tightener of policy.
15 Comments[Commodities]
Wednesday, May 22, 2:17 PM
Up as high as $1,413 following Bernanke's (at the time) perceived dovish testimony this morning, gold (GLD -0.9%) reverses along with stocks. Markets make opinions, and now the focus on Bernanke is he's prepping the markets for tapering. The just-released FOMC minutes push down gold even further, now at $1,357/oz.
9 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 22, 10:42 AMBernanke: Stocks continue with solid gains as the chairman suggests the Fed may never sell the massive assets it's accumulated, instead just letting them roll down. Most interesting are Treasury prices (TLT -1.1%) rolling over - the 10-year yield sunk to 1.89% as Bernanke's soft comments hit the tape, but has reversed to now threaten 2%. Gold (GLD +0.6%) has given up much of its knee-jerk gains, and the dollar (UUP +0.3%) is having none of it, higher across the board, particularly vs. the aussie (FXA -1.1%), yen (FXY -1%), and loonie (FXC -0.6%).
5 Comments
Wednesday, May 22, 9:16 AM
Outflows from gold ETPs of 10.27 metric tons YTD have surpassed the combined inflows of the previous 2 years, according to Bloomberg. One portfolio manager notes the outflows about equal the amount mined, meaning new supply has doubled this year. "The market has a lot of metal to absorb." GLD +1.3% premarket.
9 Comments[Commodities]
Monday, May 20, 12:40 PM
This just in. Precious metals (GLD +2.2%), (SLV +2.6%) are sharply higher on the session after a panicky Sunday evening plunge brought both to multi-year lows. Other than dollar weakness (UUP -0.5%) across the board, there's no news in particular - perhaps some satiated bears decided to cover and a trend took hold.
39 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Monday, May 20, 7:07 AM
Silver (SLV) plunged to its lowest level in nearly 3 years overnight before a bounce brought it to its current price of $21.60, -3.3%. As with gold, silver ETP holdings have dropped to the lowest levels this year, and speculative short positions are on the rise, according to CFTC data. Gold (GLD) took out its April lows earlier - dropping as low as $1,338. A bounce has brought the metal back to $1,351, -1%.
17 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, May 17, 3:55 PM
The bear market in gold (GLD, IAU) has left three closed-end funds trading at abnormally large discounts to NAV, says Morningstar's Cara Esser: GTU, CEF, and PHYS. Likewise, a small selloff in municipal (MUB) paper has left these muni CEFs at attractive values: NXR, MYD, NXP.
2 Comments[Quick Ideas]
Friday, May 17, 11:57 AM
"Do you really think risk-averse central bankers are going to try and catch the knife," asks Credit Suisse commodity research chief Ric Deverell about gold. "No" is his answer as this crowd only buys when the price is headed higher. Of reports of heavy physical buying, he's unimpressed, noting investment demand (ETFs) is the gorilla in the gold market. The metal's (GLD -1.6%) within a few dollars of taking out the 26-month low hit in April.
17 Comments[Commodities]
Friday, May 17, 9:38 AM
Did the Fed tighten while we were getting a cup of coffee? The greenback is soaring against all other currencies, with the dollar bull ETF (UUP) gaining 0.6% - an unusually large move for that vehicle. Strength against the yen (FXY -0.3%) and the aussie (FXA -0.9%) are givens of late, but the greenback is up about 1% vs. both the loonie (FXC) and the swissie (FXF), and about 0.6% vs. the euro (FXE) and cable (FXB). Getting hit are Treasurys (TLT -0.5%), the dollar bear ETF (UDN -0.6%) and of course, gold (GLD -0.7%).
5 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, May 16, 7:18 AM
Precious metals continue to tumble, with gold at $1,374 nearing the panicky lows (about $1,350) seen during April's liquidation. Any excuse will do in a bear market, and filings released yesterday containing data anywhere from 6 weeks to 5 months old showed continuing sales of gold ETPs by names such as Soros and BlackRock. GLD -1.3%, SLV -1.3% premarket.
9 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, May 15, 6:06 PM
John Paulson, whose hedge fund is the single biggest owner of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), maintained a 21.8M-share position even as the value of its holdings fell ~$165M in the latest quarter. But all that remains of his Barrick Gold (ABX) holdings is 36K call options vs. 915K shares at the end of 2012. Other positions in miners AU, NG, AEM, IAG and ANV were unchanged or modestly changed.
7 Comments[Commodities]
Wednesday, May 15, 11:16 AM
Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along.
34 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Monday, May 13, 6:44 AM
India's appetite for (now cheaper) gold (GLD) drives the country's trade deficit 70% wider in April as precious metals imports more than double Y/Y. The deficit came in at $17.8B last month, up from $10.31B in March as higher import taxes on gold fail to arrest voracious demand from the world's biggest consumer. The country's trade secretary calls the figures "surprising."
3 Comments[Global & FX]
Friday, May 10, 7:33 AM
The stronger dollar has precious metals resuming their decline in force (or is the decline in precious metals strengthening the dollar), with gold (GLD) off 2.3% and silver (SLV) off 2.2%. Crude oil (USO) pulls back a bit from its recent big rally, -0.9% to $95.53.
106 Comments[Commodities, On the Move]
Thursday, May 9, 3:36 PM
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up.
47 Comments
Jason Burack $PHYS $GLD worldwide demand for physical gold increased 8 percent last year according to the World Gold Council yet the paper price drops?
Wed, 11:35 AM
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jason2713: You pay attention to paper prices? I don't.
Wed, 11:48 AM
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Jason Burack: Not for my physical holdings. I buy those for insurance, wealth preservation & savings. But, I also buy gold & silver shares
Wed, 11:51 AM
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Jason Burack I doubt $GLD has most of its 1,000+ tons of physical gold that is not already leased, swapped out or spoken for. No independent audit
Wed, 11:34 AM
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jason2713 HFT taking over. I hope they tank it. doubled $SPXU for avg 22.85 after selling $BVN $GLD and $UVXY. buys 23.88 and 21.77
Jason Burack $PHYS $GLD worldwide demand for physical gold increased 8 percent last year according to the World Gold Council yet the paper price drops?
Wed, 11:35 AM
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jason2713: You pay attention to paper prices? I don't.
Wed, 11:48 AM
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Jason Burack: Not for my physical holdings. I buy those for insurance, wealth preservation & savings. But, I also buy gold & silver shares
Wed, 11:51 AM
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Ocean Man Bought $MUX in the pre-mkt at $2.25. $GLD is up 1.5%, $NUGT is up 8.7% and well above yesterday's highs. MUX traded at $2.30 yesterday.
Wed, 9:10 AM
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Nefas: good job...i managed to close the door behind me....so i just got home...no trades for me today ^^
x oil -field: ..inflated commodity premiums would be deflated(ing) this you can bank on,just as you can be sure the sun will rise from the east in the AM.
x oil -field: ..there's not enough lifeboats by half,and TBTFJAIL bourgeoisie Paulson types will have already exited left for the last remaining lifeboat.
Jason Burack $GLD $SLV $GDX $GDXJ If you are true contrarian, everyone in mainstream media saying precious metals was a bubble & it popped is great sign
Mon, 1:10 PM
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evan.prospect: It hasn't happened yet but when a cab driver tells me to sell PMs and PM miners and to put it into the markets, I will let everyone know
Mon, 1:49 PM
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Jason Burack: Propaganda on the msm. They hate gold and love when it goes down. They've been calling it a bubble for over 10 yrs.
x oil -field: After 3-year delay,the new high-tech $100 bill enters circulation this fall,it's designed to beat counterfeiters. http://buswk.co/17LMipS
Sat, 4:37 PM
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