GLD Forum Topics
- All Comments on GLD
- General Discussion on GLD
- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- The Bull Market Continues - In Gold [view article]
- The World's Revenge [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- The Brightest Stars in the Commodities Boom, Part I [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue [view article]
- PowerShares DB Gold Offers a Sophisticated Strategy to Small Investors [view article]
- Commodities Are 'Red Hot' but Are They 'Green'? [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Vietnam Suspends Gold Imports, Follows FDR's Great Depression Lead [view article]
loading ...Recent GLD Articles
- The Always Precarious Dollar (and Its Impact on Gold)
- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- The Bull Market Continues - In Gold
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Commodities Are 'Red Hot' but Are They 'Green'?
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- The World's Revenge
- Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue
- PowerShares DB Gold Offers a Sophisticated Strategy to Small Investors
- Full List of Articles »
Only Yen and Aussie Dollar Escape New Gold Highs [view article]
The price of gold does not change, only the percieved value of the currency traded for it changes. This creates the arbitrage of currency pairs. imo ReplyWhy I'm Not Worried About the Market [view article]
"The heavy metal poisoning that the gold bugs use to usurp the power of confidence and the principles of authority with that of primitive idolatry will start to diminish over time."Yeah, everything "diminishes" over time,I need to know when.
With stocks 'early" is just "wrong". Reply
Getting Out of Leveraged Gold [view article]
gold,as well as everything else will eventually top out, but not till most everyone is involved. this will probably happen in a big way,like 1980 when price >parabolic and parttime after school kid wonders where is best place to buy silverdollarsReply
Editor
The Good, the Not-So-Bad and the Ugly Commodites ETFs [view article]
Thanks for your insights.Look back on the article, though. It says: "SOMEDAY (emphasis added) the commodities tower will topple leaving imprudent investors who've OVERSPENT (again, added emphasis) on commodities vulnerable ..."
Note I haven't said WHEN the reversal of fortunes will occur. To think that commodities will remain in the ascendency indefinitely denies history. Commodities prices and inflation are cyclical, to wit:
Commodity vs. Stock Bull Markets
US Stock Market Producer Price Index
Composite (All Commodities)
1898-1920 61% 228%
1920-1929 196% -38%
1929-1951* -12% -58%
1951-1965 256% 6%
1965-1981 49% 204%
1981-2001 828% 37%
*Includes anomalous effect of the Great Depression (1929 – 1940)
(Source: Legg Mason)
Without market timing, overexposure to the asset class can be deleterious to a portfolio with a date-certain horizon. And how good are any of us in the timing department?
I'm not saying one SHOULDN'T have commodity exposure, only that the allocation be prudent. Reply
Commodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over [view article]
Commodity bull runs tend to blow off in a huge final run. I can't speak for much beyond oil, nat gas, and gold but if these are any indication of coming price action we haven't seen the top yet (although we may yet see more pullbacks to buy into).I think the analyst consensus that a significant drop is expected is hugely bullish. Those guys have/influence the capital to throw at their guesses whereas we schmoes here don't really add up to much. As Dennis Gartman says "do the tough trade" and since everyone feels oil will fall due to recessionary expectations then oil will likely rise. Reply
Commodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over [view article]
Wow people. What do you really think?!!!I think the key to understanding the commodities is understanding the underlayment to commodities and that is the energy used to extract them and the financing behind the extraction.If the cost of the energy goes up, the commodity goes up and/or becomes scarce. The outlier factors influencing price are many and varied and of course include obvious things like analysts recommendations fatuous and otherwise, futures markets, sociopolitical events, investors expectations, etc blah blah. Most commoditites are oil driven, some coal or gas(electricity). If commodities are abundant and energy is cheap it stands to reason that there is price elasticity influenced by supply/demand factors. If lots of land can be planted to expand the crop base, elasticity. That is not the case, people. Something is different now and until it becomes common knowledge that the cost of energy is what drives these things, Oil(energy) will fluctuate in price but oil will never go down for any sustained period ever again.The truly essential commodities probably wont either and I wouldn't begin to guess on the specific ones like rare metals. If we enter a period of deep or sustained industrial downturn some will drop. We wont need as much platinum or palladium when basket case corporations like GM stop building 6000 lb suburbans and pickemup trucks that need big catalytic converters. But it's hard to bet against grains; we'll never see $2/bushel wheat again. People who watch the bubbleheaded bobbleheads on CNBC and Fox etc are wasting their time. ReplyWhy I'm Not Worried About the Market [view article]
LOL Good comments.Having faith in the "confidence and authority of the federal government" seems down right naive or worse. People always try to call a bottom in a bear market hence no markets go straight down. This makes for great trading opportunities. Keep up the good work.
By the way, Denise (Polly Anna) Kneale started to use the "R" word this week so I knew that we were due for a bounce. Once he starts saying we're headed on a new bull run, I'll re-enter my shorts. Reply
The Good, the Not-So-Bad and the Ugly Commodites ETFs [view article]
Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish on commodities, the reality is that this asset class has been trending to the upside for some time. In my humble opinion, common sense dictates 5-10% of a portfolio should be allocated here, if only to take advantage of the negative correlation. 5% could be placed into a broad-based ETF such as DBC, DJP or GSP and 5% in a more concentrated issue such as IAU, DBA, OIL etc. Of course, if you are more bullish, use techinal analysis or are comfortable closing out of reversing positions, those amounts could be tripled for as long as stocks and bonds continue deteriorating. ReplyCommodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over [view article]
malomalo,1) Any authentic investment adviser can not give real advice based on above information.
2) In order to do so, you would have to disclose personal information; not recommended for the web.
3) Perhaps it would be best to consult a licensed financial adviser with plenty of 401k experience.
4) Perhaps after working with a professional and paying fees for a few years, you will then be confident/competent enough to take over on your own.
In a nut shell - novice 401k investor, if you have to ask the above questions, you might end up following advice that is not suitable to your needs.
This is likely to be the reason that you did not get any 'concrete' responses from the SA community as most/all are professional. Any attempt by 'scamsters' to post on SA would be crucified by the community immediately.
CrossProfit Reply
Why I'm Not Worried About the Market [view article]
No, no, no! It's a pseudonym for Alfred E. Newman of "what, me worry?" fame! ReplyWhy I'm Not Worried About the Market [view article]
This has got to be a Dennis Kneale pseudonym. The only thing left out was reality. ReplyThe Good, the Not-So-Bad and the Ugly Commodites ETFs [view article]
My father, a product of the Great Depression, always said, "Don't trust the bastards!!!” While corrupt politicians and the nations’ bankers print worthless currencies, the people soon catch on and return to a GOLD standard. ReplyCommodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over [view article]
Any commodity reccomendations for a novice 401k investor with the following:45.73% BROKERAGELINK $76,277.67 = 55k BRK.B & 21k cash
29.98% FIDELITY RETIRE MMKT $50,008.54
16.51% DODGE & COX INCOME $27,533.32
3.39% PEPSICO COMMON STCK $5,661.96
1.78% SECURITY PLUS FUND $2,973.59
0.65% VANG INST TOT STK MK $1,090.64
0.65% VANG MIDCAP IDX INST $1,090.48
0.65% FID FREEDOM INCOME $1,085.86
0.65% VANG LG CAP EQ INDEX $1,080.36
100% $166,802.42
I jumped out of a lot of funds and positions just after the first of the year and feel lucky as portfolio is only down appox 1.5% ytd. I know I need to diversify and would like to start by getting into commodities. What % of portfolio? Which commodities? Any other commodities advice would be great. I know this is off topic, but I looked for a forum on this site ..couldn't find one so decided to post here. If anyone can direct me to forums, newsletters, sites etc.; then please advise. Thank you.
..malomalo
Reply
The Good, the Not-So-Bad and the Ugly Commodites ETFs [view article]
Commodities Tower Toppling? Not anytime soon! As long as the governments are printing phony money and issuing $50 billion dollar credits here and there to all the crooked bankers and bond insurers there is not much to worry about. And what about the "Rating Agencies" calling pure junk triple "AAA". Are you seeing any of those guys going to jail? If you were an Arab sheik would you rather hold billions more of faux printing press money that is losing its value each day, or something real like corn, wheat, oil, soybeans, and gold. It's an easy choice as long as the politicians keep buying votes by promising MORE to the voters who are doing LESS. Check out the 10 year gold, silver or farm commodity chart for a dose of REALITY. ReplyCommodity Analysts Believe the Party's Over [view article]
Take a look at the 5yr price of rhodium ( kitco.com). I am still waitng for this bubble to burst. Reply