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- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks? Part II [view article]
- Independence Day: Decoupling Gold and Silver from the Dollar [view article]
- Precious Metals: Emotions Still Stronger Than Fundamentals [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy [view article]
- High Prices Cut Demand for Metals [view article]
- The Real Story of Precious Metals' Returns [view article]
- Gold Train: All Aboard [view article]
- Runaway Inflation: Do TIPS Really Help? [view article]
Recent GLD Articles
- Again With the Financials - Fast Money Recap (8/29/08)
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks? Part II
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Independence Day: Decoupling Gold and Silver from the Dollar
- High Prices Cut Demand for Metals
- European Shares Opened Lower for Third Time in a Row
- Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Full List of Articles »
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Get Out of Commodities - Barron's [view article]
Isn't Baron's the rag that ran the front page headline to buy the banks, right after the pop? Looks like they are on the losing side of that call. LOL ReplyIs the Gold Rally Really Over? [view article]
The dollar is going to fall, fall, fall....Inflation will go up, up, up....
Gold will go up, up, up....
That's life in the rear-view mirror.
Look for the USD to strengthen, price inflation to remain constrained, and commodities, including gold and oil, to retreat. At least for now.
Heresy? OK. All the more reason.
Why? We are in a consumer-spending, credit-correcting, unemployment-fearing recession that will get worse before it gets better. Much of the commodities run-up is speculative and will get unwound when it is convenient to the big boys. Don't get run over in the stampede.
Last but not least, central banks have good reason to put the brakes on the collapsing dollar. Want to bet they can't do it -- for now? Reply
A Warning for U.S. Dollar Bears and Commodity Bulls [view article]
The time scales on the graphs are way too short to be meaningful trends. He should read Edgar Steele's recent article at conspiracypenpal.com. It's writtend in a humorous style but much more logical. ReplyTwo Options Trades for This Week: Short Fannie Mae, Long Gold [view article]
you're good! I did not follow your suggested strategy, but now, a week later, this does seem so obvious. looking FWD to your next post:) ReplyThe Last Time Globalization Collapsed: Parallels to Today [view article]
yawn..... zzzzzz ReplyHow Cheap Are Gold Stocks Relative to Bullion? [view article]
I'd like to think this article has some merit..but if it does it's marginal. There are far too many variables in mining to make such a simplistic comparison with a so called "synthetic" alternative. For instance...1. "Synthetic" variables all rely on the presumption of ultimate delivery or physical presence...these almost never matter except..when they might really matter! In which case "synthetic" becomes synonymus with
nonexistent..as in "sorry, but there is no physical silver in storage."
2. Mining stocks have many other variables (often critical) that affect price that aren't even mentioned above..and by "price" I mean price of the equity..not just the underlying metal. For instance...higher cost miners bottom line jumps exponentially when price begins to exceed costs...their shares are quite likely to move higher, faster than low costs producers. Mining stocks benefit greatly in the final bull rush from exaggerated expectations...gold/si... ALWAYS jump furthest last..of course, you'd acually have to have been a real investor over time to know this.
Also...don't be fooled by what's NOT stated in the article...Options can move against one very quickly and require constant reinvestment. A miner with resources..like CDE for example..is a very simple game to play. You get your metal at half price (by ANY measure) and you can simply wait for the fundamentals and great towards real stuff to catch up...... Reply
Is the Gold Rally Really Over? [view article]
One more point on the subject of printing copious quantities of new money .Could this be seen as a form of taxation in two ways1Someone is paying interest to(the government?)or quazi governmental body on all this new money that has just appeared from nowhere2By the devaluation that follows old people ,children and other trusting people are getting heavily taxed by the value of their savings declining.Its a double whammy.If we start to look at the finance houses and banks as an extension of the state or essentially part of the state then the proportion of gdp raised and spent by the government rises dramatically into the realms of sociallism and we all know what happens to socialist(command)econ... is a lot more than a financial crisis it is a crisis in which the size of the state is increasing to unsustainable proportions and complete collapse looks possible in the medium term,similar to the fall of the soviet union. ReplyIs the Gold Rally Really Over? [view article]
Gold is a store of wealth(ie surplus resources) during financial meltdown,irresponsible fiscal policies,war and other forms of instability.You may not be able to buy gas or groceries with gold right now but were the potential total collapse ever to occur you can be sure gold would get you whatever you wanted before dollars or anything else made of paper.Paper is only a promise and is not worth anything if the promiser is unable to deliver the promise.Gold however is a physical substance that you can carry around in your pocket and wont evaporate during times of upheaval like for example paper money,share certificates etc.Once the upheaval is over ,sure the price of gold will drop but youll still have the gold for the next upheaval if you keep it.It is liquid internationally and Im sure that you could buy any larger asset with gold anytime any place worldwide. ReplyNext Stop: $2,000 Gold [view article]
If you wish to have an idea of where gold will probably go, imagine you have x number of currency units in savings in your safety deposit box. Then imagine that your country's paper currency is gradually losing its purchasing power and that a loaf of bread costs more and more currency units as time goes on. Then ask yourself what you should do to preserve the value of your savings, such that when you need to years hence, you will still be able to buy the same number of loaves of bread than when you started out. Finally imagine what other people are going to do about their savings. Remember that the value of anything depends upon how much other people wish to obtain it. If loaves of bread could be easily preserved and safely stored for future consumption, then I would convert my savings into loaves of bread. ReplyGold/Dollar Ratio Goes Parabolic [view article]
Paper will always hold whatever you put on it regardless of accuracy but when you need to flee for your life this isn't the sort of stuff you pack in your bags! However Gold always seems negotiable wherever you go. Parabolic? How can a 30 year simplistic analysis of this ratio lead anyone to conclude such a prediction? Commodities will rise, because the world's population is increasing and thus it's reasonable to assume there will be more consumption, for more people to survive they will need food, as more food is needed in the world, those who consume the most and produce the least will be our biggest market, but we need oil to do what we do best, as we use more oil, oil prices continue to rise so does Gold. China is using more oil, oil demand does not appear to me as something that will diminish in the near future therefore the price of oil is not likely to drop in the near future. Unless an alchemist comes up with the real lead for gold formula I do not see the Parabolic prediction of Gold price having any trust worthiness. Buy Gold if you have the paper to do it with! ReplyHow Cheap Are Gold Stocks Relative to Bullion? [view article]
A thought-provoking post. I read somewhere that in looking at gold stocks, one has to assess the extent to which its production had already been spoken for -- using your option analogy, the extent to which a company has covered calls. When so, any price appreciation above the call price belongs to the owern of this call option. This may explain why your synthetic value far exceeds the market value. Perhaps I am wrong. ReplyWhy Commodities Are Likely to Struggle in 2008 [view article]
Re: column...Short term--I concur; Long term--absolutely no way Mr. Jose...
Interesting piece however. Reply
How Cheap Are Gold Stocks Relative to Bullion? [view article]
very professional article. I enjoy it very much.So far, it is not clear to me what happened in NovaGold at Galore Creek. It looks like that they have miscalculated production costs rather rising production costs . NG has changed management and they will produce gold in 2Q (I wish).
Reply
How Cheap Are Gold Stocks Relative to Bullion? [view article]
"higher costs can be explained either by companies mining a lower grade of ore in the current high price environment in order to preserve their reserves and asset value ""So does anyone provide info as to the yield management practices of the various gold miners? Reply
Silver vs. Gold: 2004 to Today [view article]
Good article, John Lee. And dieuwer, the COMEX and CFTC have REFUSED to address these issues or even acknowledge that there ARE any issues. They have been apprised of them in detail, and have flatly denied any problem, any manipulation, any danger of delivery default. Why? Because they serve higher bosses than the American people or its govt. They serve the Fed and the Western bankers who have suppressed the prices of silver and gold in order to try to slow the recognition of the fraud that is called "fiat currency"...backe... by nothing. They create it out of NOTHING and then charge interest on it!!! That's worse than the fraud of selling silver and gold in pool accts and then charging storage when indeed they didn't even have the metal with them to store. At least in the end, short of an inability to deliver, they will have to come up with the gold and silver, whereas the Fed has to come up with NOTHING!!!...there IS no recourse and nothing to get back wtih your dollars, your FRNs--Fedl Reserve Notes...absolutely nothing.So yes...buy physical silver and gold...take delivery. Do NOT put your money in ETFs...they are paper promises with counterparty risks and are being used to dump silver and gold onto the market on days like today to continue the price suppression. But as John has just reiterated, the disconnect between the paper price and the physical price is growing...esp with silver. Buy it and hold onto it. One day some day, we will indeed have a default on delivery...wait and see. jt Reply