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Sector: Basic Materials
Thu, Jun. 19, 3:10 PM
- A nice-sized rally has turned into a melt-up for the precious metals and the companies that pull them out of the ground. Gold is up 3.9% to $1,319, its highest level in two months, and silver is ahead 5.7% to $20.90. GLD +3.6%, SLV +5.4%
- The gold miners (GDX +4.7%), and the silver miners (SIL +6.1%).
- A dovish interpretation of the FOMC news from yesterday makes for a nice excuse, as does the President's move to send 300 military advisers to Iraq to try and head off an all-out civil war there.
- Gold and silver ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, USLV, SIVR, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, SLVO, GLDI, DSLV, DGL, DBS, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, OUNZ, TBAR, USV, UBG, GYEN, GLDE, GLDS, GLDL, GEUR, GGBP
- Gold and silver miner ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GDXJ, DUST, GLDX, JNUG, JDST, RING, GGGG, PSAU, SIL, SLVP, SILJ
Tue, Apr. 22, 7:55 AM
- Gold and silver equities now appear more fairly valued, Goldman Sachs says, raising its sector coverage view to Neutral as it sees more responsible capital allocation, successful cost cutting initiatives, a refocus on maximizing free cash flow, and sound strategic portfolio optimization improving the positioning of select companies and offsetting its below-consensus outlook for commodity prices ($1,200/oz. gold from 2015 forward).
- The firm upgrades Barrick Gold (ABX) to Buy, believing the company's financial flexibility has significantly improved; ABX +1.8% premarket.
- B2Gold (BTG) is initiated with a Buy rating and C$4.20 price target, as Goldman cites imminent production growth from the Otjikoto project which enhances BTG’s free cash flow generation and should fund future development.
- Started at Neutral: AGI, FNV, BVN,.
- Maintained at Buy: GG, AUY, SLV.
- Sell: IAG, EGO, PAAS.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, JNUG, SLVP, RING, SILJ, JDST, GGGG, PSAU
Mon, Mar. 3, 9:55 AM
- Gold futures are surging in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine, and that's giving precious metals miners a big boost in early trading.
- AU +5.2%, GOLD +5%, GFI +4.6%, MUX +4.1%, BVN +3.9%, MVG +3.6%, SSRI +3.3%, IAG +3.2%, BTG +3.1%, HMY +3.1%, EXK +3.1%, ABX +2.8%, AUY +2.8%, SA +2.8%, SLW +2.7%, GG +2.7%, NEM +2.6%, HL +2.6%, KGC +2.3%, AGI +2.2%, AG +1.9%, NG +1.9%, PPP +1.8%, AUQ +1.6%, PAAS +1.2%, NGD +1%.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, JNUG, SLVP, RING, SILJ, GGGG, JDST, PSAU
Mon, Feb. 3, 10:26 AM
- Gold is up 1.8% to $1,262 per ounce and silver 1.9% to $19.49 following the big miss in the ISM report as traders contemplate maybe a slowdown in the taper, and some bulls dream about a QE4. Up 1.5% at the moment the Gold Miners ETF is ahead 12.9% YTD.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is off 3 basis points to 2.62% and the December 2016 Eurodollar contract is up 9 basis points to 97.99 - suggesting a slower pace of rate hikes, but still pricing in a Fed Funds rate 175 basis points higher than it is today.
- Gold and sliver-related ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, DUST, SIL, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, SLVP, GLTR, DGZ, AGOL, JNUG, DBP, DGLD, GLDI, RING, GGGG, SLVO, WITE, SILJ, PSAU, JDST, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, RGRP, BLNG
Wed, Jan. 29, 9:49 AM
- As equities open in a broad-based decline, precious metals miners show early strength: ABX +4.1%, NG +4.1%, EXK +3.7%, GG +3.7%, IAG +3.3%, SA +2.9%, AG +2.8%, SSRI +3.1%, AUY +2.7%, GOLD +2.5%, NEM +2.3%, MVG +2.3%, SLW +2.2%, PAAS +2.2%, AU +2.1%, KGC +2.2% (Briefing.com).
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, DUST, SIL, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, SLVP, GLTR, DGZ, AGOL, DBP, JNUG, DGLD, GLDI, RING, GGGG, SLVO, WITE, SILJ, PSAU, TBAR, JDST, USV, UBG, JJP, RGRP, BLNG.
Fri, Jan. 10, 3:49 PM
- Gold futures settle at a four-week high, rising 1.4% to $1,246.90, as the surprisingly weak jobs report reopens debate over the pace of bond buying at the Fed; precious metals miners are far outpacing the broader market, with the top gold miner ETF (GDX) surging 3%.
- Among the top miners: ABX +2.3%, GG +3.3%, NEM +2.4%, AU +3.8%, KGC +1.3%, GFI +4.3%, AUY +2.8%, RGLD +5.3%, AGI +2%, AEM +4.5%, SLW +4.4%, IAG +1.9%, FNV +1.5%, CDE +2.3%, EGO +3.8%, NGD +2.9%, NG +6.9%, HMY +2.7%.
- ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SLVP, RING, GGGG, SILJ, JNUG, PSAU, JDST.
Wed, Jan. 8, 12:42 PM
- Moody’s is reducing its forward view for the average price of gold and silver in 2014 and beyond to $1,100/oz and $18/oz, respectively, dealing another blow to a precious metals sector already reeling from high costs and low investor confidence.
- The decision means Moody’s likely will take a harsher view of the prospects of the companies whose debt it rates, potentially leading to rating downgrades and higher borrowing costs for miners.
- Moody's rates most of the largest gold producers including Barrick Gold (ABX -1.8%), Newmont Mining (NEM -1.6%), AngloGold (AU -2.1%), Goldcorp (GG -1.5%) and Kinross (KGC -1.1%); ABX and AU already are on a negative outlook from the agency.
- Fundamentals "seem unfavorable over the next couple of years as the global economy maintains forward momentum, governments unwind various stimulus programs, and the threat of inflation remains subdued in most major economies," Moody's writes.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, RING, GGGG, JNUG, PSAU, JDST, SIL, SLVP, SILJ.
Thu, Jan. 2, 3:17 PM
- Gold is having its biggest day in three weeks, up 1.8% to $1,224 per ounce, and silver is higher by 3.3%, with optimism about boosted demand from Asia as good of an excuse as any for the rally.
- Chatter from India about the rate hike cycle not just being over, but about to go into reverse is helping, as is a New Year's Eve move by the RBI to loosen control over gold imports.
- GLD +1.7%, SLV +3.1%
- The miners get off on the right foot in 2014 as well: GDX +3.8%, SIL +3.3%.
- Related ETFs: GLD, SLV, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, SIVR, PPLT, USLV, PALL, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DBS, DSLV, DGZ, PTM, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, SLVO, PGM, TBAR, USV, UBG, GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SLVP, GGGG, RING, SILJ, JNUG, PSAU, JDST
Dec. 19, 2013, 9:58 AM
- Precious metals stocks are slammed at the open from weakening prices for underlying metals, and the Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF (GDX -2.1%) opens at a new 52-week low.
- GFI -2.8%, AUY -2.4%, AU -3.8%, RGLD -2.7%, NEM -3.1%, ABX -2.1%, GG -2.4%, AGI -3.2%, AEM -2.3%, SLW -2.6%, KGC -1.9%, FNV -1.6%, CDE -1.5%, EGO -1.5%, NGD -1.2%, HMY -1.2%.
- ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SLVP, GGGG, RING, SILJ, PSAU, JNUG, JDST.
Dec. 19, 2013, 9:11 AM
- Seems the Fed taper wasn't priced in to gold prices after all, as spot gold tumbles briefly below $1,200/oz. to six-month lows, and the leading gold miners ETF (GDX) slides to new 52-week lows.
- A few minutes ago, gold (GLD) -2.6% to $1,202.80/oz., silver (SLV) -4.2% to $19.20.
- The taper is "another sign of increasing normalization for the world economy," Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner says. "Gold's insurance function is less desirable in that environment."
- Commerzbank’s commodity strategists argue the selling is overdone: "The fact that money will remain extremely 'cheap' for a long time yet should in fact have lent support to the gold price rather than it coming under pressure" due to the impending end to QE.
- Precious metals ETFs: IAU, AGQ, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DBS, DSLV, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG.
- Miner ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SLVP, GGGG, RING, SILJ, PSAU, JNUG, JDST.
Dec. 12, 2013, 10:59 AM
- IAMGOLD (IAG -7.1%) tumbles to new 52-week lows following the miner's suspension of its dividend; other gold miners also are racking up losses, and the top gold miner ETF (GDX -1.8%) thuds to 52-week lows.
- Given IAG's dividend yield had climbed to 6.5%, TD Securities says the move should not surprise anyone; indeed, it makes sense to conserve cash in an environment of low gold prices, and the move saves ~$94M/year.
- TD also points out that the market has reacted positively when miners such as Barrick (ABX -0.7%) and Kinross (KGC -0.4) cut dividends.
- IAG has enough liquidity to continue to operate its mines, Goldman Sachs says, but thinks the next step for the company should be to close cash-negative operations or monetize its niobium asset.
- Also hitting new 52-week lows: NEM -1.2%, GFI -3.8%, GG -1%.
- Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, GGGG, RING, PSAU, JNUG, JDST
Dec. 11, 2013, 2:42 PM
- Gold producers' balance sheets appear relatively stable with gold prices at ~$1,250/oz. but would weaken further on lower prices, TD Securities says in an analysis of miners' sensitivity to changes in gold prices.
- At $1,100/oz, companies with the highest forecast ratio of net debt to total capitalization include Barrick Gold (ABX -2.5%), Newmont Mining (NEM -1.9%), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM -2.5%) and Detour Gold (DRGDF +3.3%).
- TD's top picks include Eldorado (EGO -3.1%), Goldcorp (GG -1.5%), B2Gold (BTG -3.7%), Primero Mining (PPP -0.6%) and Silver Wheaton (SLW -2%).
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, GGGG, RING, PSAU, JNUG, JDST.
Dec. 4, 2013, 12:55 PM
- Threatening to sink below $1,200 ounce after the strong ADP jobs report this morning, gold has staged a big reversal to $1,247. Below $19 earlier, silver has also come along for the ride, now at $19.72.
- GLD +2.1%, SLV +3.4%.
- The taper may be coming, but the SF Fed's John Williams is talking about raising the bar even further before the FOMC would consider hiking rates.
- The gold miners (GDX +3.7%) are the best performing sector in the market today.
- PM ETFs: GLD, SLV, IAU, AGQ, PHYS, SIVR, PPLT, PALL, ZSL, USLV, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DBS, DGL, DSLV, GLTR, DGZ, PTM, AGOL, DBP, GLDI, DGLD, WITE, SLVO, PGM, TBAR, USV, JJP, UBG, RGRP, LPLT, BLNG, IPLT
- Miner ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, SIL, DUST, GLDX, SLVP, GGGG, RING, SILJ, PSAU, JNUG, JDST
Dec. 2, 2013, 3:25 PM
- The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX -5.5%) plunges to a fresh five-year low thanks to the newest PMI manufacturing data, which climbed to the highest reading since 2011; BTIG analyst Dan Greenhaus calls the data "stunning,” and bad for precious metals.
- Comex gold dropped $28.50, or 2.3%, to settle at $1,221.90 for its lowest close since July; the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is down 2.5% to kick off December’s trading.
- Silver slumped 3.7% to $19.29, also the lowest since July.
- ABX -5.3%, NEM -3.8%, GG -4.6%, KGC -3.4%, GFI -3.5%, NGD -8.2%, EGO -7.5%, AEM -7%, AUY -5.5%, AGI -8.9%, SLW -5.7%.
- Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, PHYS, DUST, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, GGGG, RING, PSAU, TBAR, JNUG, UBG, JDST, SLV, AGQ, SIVR, ZSL, USLV, DBS, DSLV, SLVO, USV.
Nov. 1, 2013, 12:57 PM
- Barrick Gold's (ABX -6.2%) planned $3B capital raise may be "prudent and necessary" for the company, but it stinks for shareholders, and shares of other big precious metals miners are tumbling too.
- ABX's move may be sparking fears from shareholders in other miners that they could be next, and that stock offerings of this size could make it hard to raise dividends in the future; "cram-down financing like this is something that companies should consider [only] after their stocks have rallied significantly," Jon Ogg writes.
- NEM -4.7%, GG -3.8%, KGC -3.9%, SLW -3.2%, GFI -1.3%, NGD -2.2%, AUY -3.3%, CDE -3.3%, TAHO -4.9%.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, GGGG, RING, PSAU, JNUG.
Oct. 21, 2013, 12:49 PM
- HSBC upgraded its stock ratings on various gold mining companies, noting that recent weak stock performance has "opened up value again," demand for gold remains strong, lower prices are resulting in reduced supply.
- The firm expects gold prices to rebound again, bringing better value in some gold miners, particularly Barrick Gold (ABX +1.9%), Goldcorp (GG +2.1%) and IAMGOLD (IAG +3%), upgraded to Overweight from Neutral (I, II, III); it also raises Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM +0.4%), Yamana Gold (AUY +2%) and AngloGold (AU +0.3%) to Neutral from Underweight (I, II, III).
- HSBC, however, cuts Gold Fields (GFI +0.2%) to Underweight from Neutral, in part due to higher risk related to an SEC investigation.
- ETFs: GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, PSAU, NUGT, DUST, GGGG, RING.
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Jason Burack:: FNV is up about 24% in the last 3 weeks or so. $30/share was basically the exact bottom. Nice double bottom on the long term charts.