Jan. 8, 2014, 3:26 PM
- Coffee prices continue to surge after torrential rains in Brazil threaten to damage as much as 40% of the nation's arabica crop.
- Arabica coffee futures for March delivery are up 3% on the day and 19% since early November, but still stand at a historically-low level.
- Premium coffee sellers such as Starbucks (SBUX +0.6%) and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +1.1%) favor the arabica bean.
- Related ETFs: JO
Jan. 7, 2014, 6:38 AM
- Despite lagging the S&P 500, food stocks had a strong year in 2013. We believe investors should remain selective in their allocation of capital by placing a greater emphasis on stock picking.
- Overall, in terms of themes for our packaged food/beverage coverage universe in 2014, we expect sluggish but gradually improving food volume trends, increased promotional intensity (funded by easing commodity costs and retailers fighting for traffic share) and a relatively active M&A environment.
- Accordingly, we prefer companies with solid organic growth prospects [Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR); Amira Nature Foods (ANFI); J & J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)], exposure to declining commodity costs [GMCR; Hormel Foods (HRL); The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM); Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)], exposure to company specific margin enhancing opportunities [FLO; GMCR, ConAgra Foods (CAG)] and ability to benefit from accretive M&A (SJM, JJSF and CAG).
- On the non-branded part of our coverage universe, Ingredion (INGR) is our top pick followed by Tyson Foods (TSN) and Dean Foods (DF).
Jan. 2, 2014, 10:11 AM
Dec. 23, 2013, 10:31 AM
- Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR -2.8%) are putting in a volatile morning session on above-average volume. The company hasn't released any news of note.
- What to watch in 2014: Though the battle for K-Cup market share will remain a focus next year, the GMCR story will expand in 2014 with the launch of the company into new global markets and the advent of new brewer systems.
Dec. 17, 2013, 12:35 PM
- Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR -1%) show some volatility after news breaks that the company appealed a case in federal court over infringement of its K-Cup patents.
- It's unclear how the case is material on a broad scale with rival K-Cup products already proliferating due to the expiration of the most key GMCR patents. The judge in the original trial ruled that the pod products from Rogers Family Coffee are sufficiently dissimilar to Green Mountain's well-known pods.
Dec. 13, 2013, 7:51 AM
Dec. 10, 2013, 9:06 AM
- A comment from Coca-Cola (KO) CEO Muhtar Kent yesterday at a beverage conference in NYC looks like a positive development for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), notes KeyBanc.
- Kent said single-serve dispensers are an "opportunity" not a threat to Coca-Cola's business.
- A partnership between GMCR and KO could heat up the "cold" side of the single serve business.
Dec. 4, 2013, 3:07 PM
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +2.6%) maintained more of its pod market share over the last four weeks than Starbucks (SBUX -1.2%), according to fresh Nielsen data.
- Unit growth is still strong for pods, up 44%, but pricing in the consumables category fell 5.7% during the latest tracking period - compared to a 4.6% drop for the preceding four weeks and a minor gain during last year's comparable.
Nov. 27, 2013, 3:27 PM
- Buckingham Research is out with some upbeat commentary on Buy-rated Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR +5.2%).
- Analyst Matthew DiFrisco likes "the prospects for meaningful margin expansion, double-digit growth in portion packs, and more dynamic growth in H2 2014 when GMCR converts current unlicensed channel volume into profitable licensed partners."
- Price target is $92.
- Meanwhile, here's Herb Greenberg commenting last week: "Take a look at growth: It's going the wrong direction. Margins? Sequentially (which counts in this situation) off a cliff -- and that's WITH the aid of lower coffee prices and a laundry list of one-time (or, let's say, not sustainably to-be-counted-on) items."
- For more perspective, here's Stifel's Mark Astrachan (as quoted by Greenberg): "We believe new guidance implies modest over-shipment relative to demand in F4Q13 and slowing K-Cup sales growth, largely a result of share gains for unlicensed brands and worsening price/mix."
Nov. 27, 2013, 7:34 AM
Nov. 26, 2013, 10:00 AM
- Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR -4.5%) trail off in early trading as reports crop up that OTR Global is raising concerns again.
- It's a familiar story with the research firm creating a few ripples in the past for GMCR bulls with its reads on K-Cup market share.
- GMCR still trades above where it was before reporting earnings last week and announcing a buyback plan.
Nov. 21, 2013, 9:45 AM
- Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +13.6%) continue to thrash around wildly after putting in a volatile post-earnings session last night.
- The formidable position by shorts in the stock and an upcoming speech by David Einhorn later today could keep trading lively throughout the day.
- Investors looking beyond the short-term drama have been buoyed by the strong demand shown for K-cup and portion packs despite some pricing pressure.
- Analyst take: Janney shifts its rating to Buy from Neutral after GMCR beat and fired up a buyback plan.
Nov. 20, 2013, 4:16 PM
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) is putting in a volatile after-hours session after beating profit estimates handily with its FQ3 report as lower green coffee costs helped the bottom line.
- Revenue growth trends for portion packs (+11% to $777.9M) and brewers/accessories (+27% to $190.4M) were solid and helped to offset a slip in royalty income.
- FY14 EPS is estimated at $3.75-$3.85 vs. $3.78 consensus, while guidance for Q4 came in below estimates.
- On the capital allocation front, a $0.25/share dividend and $1B share repurchase plan are part of the program. (PR)
- GMCR -2.6% AH after an initial surge is reversed.
Nov. 20, 2013, 4:02 PM
Nov. 20, 2013, 12:10 AM
Nov. 19, 2013, 5:35 PM
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