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The iShares Barclays U.S. Treasury Bond Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Bond Index.
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Country: United States
Monday, Oct 2112:56 PMCaxton's Law reverses, goes long Treasurys
Monday, Oct 2112:56 PM| 10 Comments
- Short Treasurys for much of the year, Caxton went to neutral as soon as Larry Summers dropped out of the race for Fed chief, and is now long across the curve, says the hedge fund's chief Andrew Law. "For whatever reason," the U.S. economy has been unable to "reach escape velocity ... tapering is off the table for the foreseeable future." He notes GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the last four quarters with zero rates and massive QE. Why would growth accelerate now? He believes the Fed looked at the same thing at its last meeting and realized it couldn't taper.
- "There are no incentives for the corporate world to go out and spend – that, and housing, are critical ... The Fed is very clearly now seeking to lower interest rates."
- On Europe, it's better, but he's not overly excited. He's keeping an eye on the euro (FXE) and expects $1.40 to be the line at which the ECB responds both verbally and maybe with a cut in rates. "The marketplace has spent the last 4 years trying to sell the euro and not quite understanding why it hasn’t collapsed to the teens… maybe now (longs) will have their moment."
- Japan: Caxton cashed in on the yen devaluation and big stock rally earlier this year, and remains moderately bullish.
- U.K.: There is no housing bubble. The country needs another 100K new homes per year. "My forecast would be that the BoE is not worrying too much about the housing market."
- Law took over from Bruce Kovner at Caxton in 2008.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
- Euro ETFs: FXE, ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX.
Tuesday, Sep 104:35 PMGundlach: Fed making big mistake ending QE
Tuesday, Sep 104:35 PM| 3 Comments
- "What If?" is the title of Jeff Gundlach's (DBL, DSL) latest webcast presentation.
- Reviewing his boner of a call that Treasury rates had topped out about 70 basis points ago, Gundlach says he never thought the Fed would walk away from QE. Instead the Fed has chosen to do just that in favor of what Gundlach calls a "seat of the pants policy" that he feels is a big mistake.
- The total return loss in bonds during this selloff is nearly identical 1993/94 carnage, he notes. While not expecting a fast rally in bond prices, Gundlach does feel the selling is about done.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
Monday, Aug 193:57 AMAlmost $20B flees bond funds in August so far
Monday, Aug 193:57 AM| 4 Comments
- Outflows from U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs have risen to $19.7B in August from $14.8B in July, TrimTabs says, making this month's figure so far the fourth-highest on record.
- Since the beginning of June, $103.5B has left bond funds, or 2.7% of total assets.
- The sell-off in bonds, which has been prompted by fears of Fed tapering, has sent Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year hitting 2.871% today, the highest for just over two years.
- "We are concerned that the Fed is starting to lose control of the bond market, which is not good news for the stock market or the highly leveraged U.S. economy," TrimTabs said
- Related ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC, TRSY, PLW, GOVT, TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ, TIP, STIP, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, SCHP, IPE, TPS, TDTT, TDTF, RINF, FINF, INFL, DEFL, UINF, SINF, VTIP, TIPX, STPP, FLAT
Friday, Aug 168:24 AMTreasury yields again move higher; key data coming up
Friday, Aug 168:24 AM| Comment!
- Yesterday's sharp dive in stocks offered a bit of respite to Treasury prices, but as calm again takes hold this morning, price are back to heading south (yields north). The 10-year is up 2 bps to 2.79%.
- Housing starts data at 8:30 might confirm what have been anecdotal reports of the real estate sector being dinged by the higher rates.
- Treasury ETFs: TRSY, PLW, GOVT, TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX,SHY, SHV, IEI, BIL, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUL, VGSH, DTUS, DFVS, DFVL, SST, ISTB, TBZ.
Tuesday, Aug 138:38 AMTreasury prices fall further after fast retail sales report
Tuesday, Aug 138:38 AM| 1 Comment
- Already lower in morning action, bond prices take no comfort from core retail sales rising 0.5% in July - the fastest gain thus far in 2013.
- TLT -1.3% premarket, with its leveraged bear counterpart TBT +2.4%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up 9 bps to 2.69%.
- Other longer-term Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
- Broad Treasury ETFs: TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
- Stock index futures give up some gains, the S&P 500 +0.2%.
Monday, Jul 13:50 AMA record $79.8B was pulled from exchange-traded and mutual bond funds in June, TrimTabs estimates, with the number almost double the $41B that was withdrawn at the peak of the financial crisis in October 2008. Mutual funds lost $70.8B and ETFs $9B in June - Pimco (the ETF version is BOND) shed 2.8% from its net asset value - amid fears of Fed tapering. The stampede out could continue when the quarterly statements come in and show people what they've lost. |Monday, Jul 13:50 AM| Comment!
Sunday, Jun 302:10 AMCentral banks sold a record $32.4B in U.S. Treasurys (SHY) in the week to June 26 - taking their holdings to $2.93T - for the third weekly outflow in the past four weeks. Meanwhile, bond funds tracked by data provider EPFR Global experienced total redemptions of $23.3B last week. The numbers provide some color to the sharp rise in Treasury yields since Ben Bernanke first signaled the Fed would start tapering QE. |Sunday, Jun 302:10 AM| 2 Comments
Monday, Mar 184:57 AMRon Rowland offers additional highlights on the recently expanded lineup of commission-free ETFs over at Fidelity including the following caveat: Funds not held for 30 days by retail investors or 60 days by RIAs using Fidelity as a custodian will be subject to a $7.95 per-trade commission. Some RIAs have complained that the longer holding period directed at them is unfair. Rowland spells out the full list of affected ETFs here. |Monday, Mar 184:57 AM| Comment!
Sunday, Mar 174:06 AMThe Treasury is investigating whether investors are accumulating government bonds in order to boost prices after $78.87B worth of 10-year notes used as collateral in repo market weren't returned to the loan counter-party on Monday. Over the week, the cost of borrowing Treasurys for use in the repo market or for short sales jumped more than three-fold, only easing after a government auction. |Sunday, Mar 174:06 AM| 3 Comments
Wednesday, Jan 24:47 AMThe amount of debt that the G7 and four of the BRIC nations will need to refinance this year will fall by $220B to $7.38T, Bloomberg calculates, although the amount the U.S. will have to cover will increase to $2.9T from $2.6T. Overall government debt returned 4.5% on average last year, led by a 78% gain on Greek bonds. However, yields on major sovereign debt are expected to remain low. |Wednesday, Jan 24:47 AM| Comment!
Monday, Oct 152012, 4:04 PMAfter much conjecture, BlackRock (BLK) will indeed slash fees on 6 of its ETPs, including the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), as it tries to regain market share from Vanguard, among others. The company is also reorganizing its ETF sales team, and, for the first time, rolling out TV ads. |Monday, Oct 152012, 4:04 PM| Comment!
Monday, Aug 202012, 4:51 AMThe gap between bank deposits and loans is rising at the quickest pace in two years, coming in at $1.75T on August 8, when deposits stood at $8.87T and lending $7.12T. The gap is well above the $100B average in the 10 years before credit markets started breaking down. Banks are using the money to snap up U.S. debt, buying $136.4B worth this year, more than twice the $62.6B for all of 2011. It's unsustainable, says an analyst. |Monday, Aug 202012, 4:51 AM| Comment!
Monday, Jun 252012, 7:10 AMTreasurys return to the top of the U.S. fixed income heap, up 2.9% thus far in Q2, beating corporate bonds, mortgages, and munis. With the 10-year at 1.6%, a sampling of a consensus formed: "You're going to sleep less badly by buying a (Treasury)," "We have a scarcity of true safe-haven assets," "There's not going to be a serious backup" in rates, "People are terrified." |Monday, Jun 252012, 7:10 AM| 3 Comments
Monday, Jun 252012, 5:49 AMBunds are losing some of their safe haven status, as investors wonder whether Germany can continue to bear the burden of backstopping the eurozone crisis. U.S. Treasurys are likely to benefit, as few other havens remain; Switzerland and Japan are trying to deter investors to keep their currencies from appreciating, while Denmark and its northern neighbors aren't large enough to be true havens. |Monday, Jun 252012, 5:49 AM| 2 Comments
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