Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)

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  • commenter
    tradinfool
    Jul 22 11:02 PM
    Garmin: Market Erroneously Pricing In Nuvifone Failure [view article]
    There seems to be quite a bit of mis-informatiion about GRMN within these posts. The net sales numbers for Garmin in 07 are listed on Form 10-k
    (2007 Annual Report) p70

    Automotive/Mobile 73.69%
    Outdoor/Fitness 10.70%
    Aviation 9.30%
    Marine 6.40%

    While I agree with a couple of points made here regarding the Nuvi-Phone I will try and lay to rest a couple other misconceptions:

    1) The cost of Nav on the phone plan is not in Garmin's hands, that will be determined by the carriers who decide to pick up the Nuvi-Phone line within their product offering. This is simply a feature of the phone which does not use the "network time" of the carrier's network, ie; it is occupying space within the spectrum of bandwith and therefore costs the cellular company nothing to offer.

    2) Cell Phone technology, just like GPS technology is very complicated and new entrants to this business will have hurdles to overcome with many Cellular Platforms, ie; tdma & cdma technologies.

    I feel GRMN is making the right move in venturing into new areas. As the margins in the gps industry continue to shrink and competition increases, they will need to stay on the edge of innovation and move into markets not yet explored with a more broad product mix. As I pointed out above, the automotive/mobile segment make up 3/4 of their Net Sales. This is not good news if the margins continue to shrink at present rates if they cannot find other sources
    of profit within other segments of the business.

    Garmin does however have good leadership and I have all confidence that they will find a solution to the shrinking margins. With all this said, I feel they are a great value play at their current level 0f 48.75. Industry P/E ratio is 16, Garmin is trading at 11 times earnings. If you value them as average within the tech sector and assign a P/E of 16, this puts them at 63.75/share.

    Tom Tom announced earning yesterday and their sales were up 70% year over year for the quarter. In news today, Garmin illuded to the fact that sales within the U.S. gps market were up 130% YOY. If that is the case we should see Garmin beat the street estimates of 1.00/share this quarter and I would predict you would see it more along 1.03/share given the decrease in margins.

    I only recently purchased Garmin, but I feel like I stole it at 42.75. In my opinion, the stock is well undervalued. I guess we'll find out on July 30 when this quarter's earnings are announced.     Reply
  • commenter
    trader tim
    Jul 22 05:50 PM
    My Website
    Garmin: Market Erroneously Pricing In Nuvifone Failure [view article]
    Hey....looks like the Market is finally starting to agree with me....Tom Tom had a decent report..nothing earth shattering so they went up on it.

    July 31st should be the day we hear alot more about the Nuvifone..stay tuned     Reply
  • commenter
    rd4sndk
    Jul 08 01:18 PM
    Garmin: Market Erroneously Pricing In Nuvifone Failure [view article]
    Tim... You raise a good argument for investing in Garmin based on nuvifone sales but I'm not as optimistic about cell phone revenue contribution as I am in continued automotive penetration and having aero+boating GPS becoming a larger percentage of revenue. These latter markets are less competitive and are sufficiently large to continue Garmins as a growth stock. My concern is that the cell phone market is too competitive and may consume a disproportionate amount of R&D resources from the other bread and butter product lines--not to mention its the competitiveness. Selling a car phone as an automotive GPS package for the low end consumer with WIFI or Wimax as the primary broadband low cost conduit for toll and network access would be huge as well as game changing. Those locations that don't have WIFI access could then use a specialized pay as you go cell network until within WIFI range. Essencially free cell phone access.

    But competing with the likes of Nokia, Apple, RIMM, Samsung, Motorola and Google is highly risky in the cut throat cell phone market.     Reply
  • commenter
    Taunto
    Jul 03 10:33 PM
    Garmin: Market Erroneously Pricing In Nuvifone Failure [view article]
    20% of Garmin's bus is glass panel nav systems for the world's most advanced, sophisticated planes, jet & prop, and it's reported to be boom time for new planes going forward. It's the state of the art leader in this field and it makes all its other products for cars, boats, motorcycles, dog collars, bikes, runners, outdoorsman, joggers and the like child's play by comparison. It's even got a new thing called Synthetic Vision Technology which displays a 3D terrain graphic for IFR flight---star war's stuff. The iPhone is great...but how much does the monthly svc plan cost? Similiarly, it's not the cost of the computer that gets you, it's the monthly high speed access charge! The nuvi phone can compete if its svc charge is a lot less than the iPhone. A lot of people don't need all that jazz that the iPhone provides and will find the delivery of GPS nav to everyday affairs a huge time saver and headache reducer. These stock analysts can follow the stock but not the story. They can't see the forest for the trees. All their questions are about exchange rates, inventory build up, etc. They need to get out of the office and onto the street and learn about how people live. As my grandma used to say, "A word to the wise is sufficient." Reply
  • commenter
    mollytjm
    Jul 01 10:32 AM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    another great article, Carl. i always look for yours. just as Apple is VERY careful about protecting it's computers from viruses, it's very careful about everything it thinks could harm it's product or product user. certainly microsoft never cares this much about it's consumer. Apple deserves praise for this and i'm really, really eager for July 11th. Reply
  • commenter
    chocha
    Jun 30 11:21 PM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    Why in the world would apple put gps on the iphone if it was going to block location based software? I'm not saying apple is perfect (not by a long shot) but that would be so stupid. think about it Reply
  • commenter
    chocha
    Jun 30 11:20 PM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    Why in the world would apple put gps on the iphone if it was going to block location based software? I'm not saying apple is perfect (not by a long shot) but that would be so stupid. think about it Reply
  • commenter
    DavidK
    Jun 30 10:59 PM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    You are right on my friend. The ramifications of location data such as that used by the security people(like police depts) are or could be huge. Big brother at it's max. Some of us should think of the liberties that would sacrifice just for convenience of it. Not smart... not smart at all! Reply
  • commenter
    Tom B
    Jun 30 03:50 PM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    "While others decry a "rich" P/E of 35, I wouldn't trade the growth potential of AAPL for "richer" companies such as Amazon.com (62), Ebay (87), Red Hat (57), Research in Motion (52) or Real Networks (100)."

    It astounds me how much people pay for one-hit-wonder AMZN. And Real just has a high P/E because they have minimal "E".     Reply
  • commenter
    CrowTRobot
    Jun 30 03:25 PM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    I always look forward to your analysis, Carl, and I believe that you are spot on. As a long-time (since March, 1991) investor in Apple, I understand how this stock is manipulated by traders. Up or down, I just have been hanging on for the ride, and what a great ride it has been. While others decry a "rich" P/E of 35, I wouldn't trade the growth potential of AAPL for "richer" companies such as Amazon.com (62), Ebay (87), Red Hat (57), Research in Motion (52) or Real Networks (100). Reply
  • commenter
    pabs
    Jun 30 02:09 PM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    good solid article that understands what is happening thank you, perhaps you could write for fortune and barrons as their writers generally seem to miss the point Reply
  • commenter
    ullric
    Jun 30 01:20 PM
    Apple's 3 iPhone Considerations: Liability, Liability and Liability [view article]
    That's pretty much correct. It doesn't matter if the SDK has restrictions. If you're a serious developers, you would contact Apple and negotiate a special agreement. Reply
  • commenter
    trader tim
    Jun 30 09:43 AM
    My Website
    Garmin: Market Erroneously Pricing In Nuvifone Failure [view article]
    Agreed, their balance sheet is one of the many reasons why I have put money to work in this company. The PEG is .73....seems undervalued to me, Company is buying back more stock, 617 Million in the bank, Trading at 10 times forward earnings, Dividend.

    We'll start to see in the next few quarters If i was right     Reply
  • commenter
    ArtfulDodger
    Jun 30 01:38 AM
    Garmin: Market Erroneously Pricing In Nuvifone Failure [view article]
    Tim, to end up with a balance sheet and margins as GRMN has, the management must be topnotch.

    But with momentum players controlling so much of what happens in each sector and stock, who today cares.

    I had a good profit in GRMN and let it slip away. I can't say why the stock has dropped from over 50 to the low forties, but that type of drop is surely telegraphing us something negative.

    I'm out for the time being, but with such a good balance sheet I'm going to keep my eye on GRMN for future investing.     Reply
  • commenter
    User 219512
    Jun 29 10:46 PM
    Garmin: Market Erroneously Pricing In Nuvifone Failure [view article]
    The problem with Garmin is that the average person does not need some silly program giving them directions. These things go out of favor after they have been on the market for a while. Other examples include satelite radio and crocs; this is a luxury- while many people are having a hard time filling up their tanks why would they shell out more dough for directions? Reply

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