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- Commodities Boom and Rotation [view article]
- Don't Get Caught in the Dot Commodity Bubble [view article]
- 25 ETFs That Actually Are Making Money [view article]
- Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
- Making Sense of Commodity Products [view article]
- Commodities Speculation Symptom of Larger Problem [view article]
- Investor in the Woods, Part I [view article]
- How Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD? [view article]
- 'Index Speculators' Responsible For Commodity Prices? [view article]
- Commodity Bubbles and Valuation: Imperfect Together [view article]
- How Not To Trade the Chinese Earthquake [view article]
- Questioning the Link Between Commodity Wealth and Oppression [view article]
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- 25 ETFs That Actually Are Making Money
- Tom Winmill on Legislation and Speculation Limits
- Investor in the Woods: Talking to a Broker
- Investor in the Woods, Part I
- Asset Allocation Expert Says Go Big on Commodities
- How Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD?
- 'Index Speculators' Responsible For Commodity Prices?
- Quantifying Commodities Speculation
- Commodities Speculation Symptom of Larger Problem
- Commodities Speculation Symptom of Larger Problem
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Commodities Boom and Rotation [view article]
The equity and bond markets have benefited from a long period of low inflation, but ongoing and massive central bank liquidity injections point to a far less benign environment of elevated inflation ahead. Research from Agcapita Partners LP (Calgary Canada private equity firm) shows that investors must be prepared to rotate into asset classes with different characteristics.During the last commodity bull market/high inflation period in the 1970s equities materially underperformed farmland. The S&P 500 index returned less than 2% per year nominal (negative 50% in inflation adjusted terms), funds in a money market account returned 6% in inflation adjusted terms (barely staying ahead of inflation over 10 years) while western Canadian farmland went from around $100/acre to $550/acre (550% nominal return, 176% in inflation adjusted terms).
The world is still in the early stages of the current commodity bull market. When agriculture commodities prices are compared against their previous inflation adjusted highs they are significantly discounted implying scope for further price increases:
Corn is US$ 5/bushel currently compared to US$16/bushel in 1974,
Wheat is US$ 7/bushel currently compared to US$27/bushel in 1974
Canadian farmland is C$ 660/acre currently compared to C$1,100/acre in 1981
Reply
Don't Get Caught in the Dot Commodity Bubble [view article]
With hindsight your article has proven its worth. Commodity bubble has burst. Reply25 ETFs That Actually Are Making Money [view article]
And with ETFs these days you don't get much . . . You could have saved us a lot of time if in the opening sentence (the only sentence!) you had said, "Don't bother with ETFs!" Reply25 ETFs That Actually Are Making Money [view article]
I think baller miss understood Jim Wiandt's point re ETF fees. By comparison with mutual fund fees, all the leading ETFs are cheaper. His point is that the fees of leading ETFs were higher than under performing ETFs. Well, you get what you pay for (sometimes). Reply25 ETFs That Actually Are Making Money [view article]
At last, someone has stepped up to the plate and admitted to the qudmire this market has been since Otober. The combination of only shorting or playing commodities ( which have trapped many with the sudden downturn (steel)) combined with the high fees these ETFs charge have driven many of us to the sidelines scratching our head or trying to daytrade (gasp)!Where are the foreign markets that are supposed to be decoupled from the US market and provide us some returns(adequate) while we are in a downturn?
Or where is the defensive sector of our US market that should provide a similiar relief.
Thanks for a good article that shows the true picture.
Reply
Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
Would anyone recommend a livestock ETF or ETN?Taxation as US investor...any opinions? (reading prospectus)
Do these have enough liquidity...I cannot seem to locate avg. volume?
Looking at:
CATL, ETFS Live Cattle...trades on London
COW, iPath Livestock Reply
Making Sense of Commodity Products [view article]
This analysis leaves out an extremely important component: sector allocation. DJP is tempting despite its weaker returns due to it's 33% cap at rebalancing (annual) for each. However, with the recent run up in energy - it has underperformed due to this diversification. ReplyCommodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
I'm missing RJI, RJN, and RJZ. ReplyCommodities Speculation Symptom of Larger Problem [view article]
'Politicians/authors who try to blame speculators to make oil cheaper will just make things worse.'The Economist, Jul 2008
You point to the linkn between the volume of transaction on the futures market and the price of oil. You could not be more wrong to give that as evidence for the recent rise in oil prices. Please have a look at Nickel which has equally seen increasing amounts of volume but a near halving in price.
An important point is that neither speculators nor index funds ever buy any physical oil. They buy futures and options which they settle in a cash payment. Since no oil is ever held back for these contracts, there will be no impact on the spot price of oil.
If futures prices get insanely high, then it is likely that companies and producers might be hoarding oil, but there is no sign of that.
Someone please read Friday's Lex Column in the FT or The Economist before listening to politicians and authors who claim speculators are responsible for high oil prices.
Thank you
Please get your facts straight here. Since delivery in the futures market is mostly cash settled (most are rolled over), speculators do not buy the actual oil Reply
Curve
Investor in the Woods, Part I [view article]
I’m hoping someone will discuss what percent of a retirement portfolio a person might put into commodities ETFs & ETNs. At present I have ~ 5%. I own DBA, DBC, GCC, RJA, & RJI, and Pimco’s Total Return. I don’t intend to buy & sell within these positions but to hold them as a cushion. Meanwhile, I deliberately have attempted to diversify the individual commodities and hold oil and gas in energy overweighted mutual funds. Anyone want to offer a little more theory or critic this approach –particularly for a retired person? ReplyHow Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD? [view article]
seekingalpha.com/autho... ReplyHow Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD? [view article]
More on commidity ETFs- SLV and GLD ReplyHow Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD? [view article]
Thank you. I will report this error to SA editors. They should correct it soon, but if you are in a hurry, you can see the enlarged image at my blog qvmgroup.com/invest ReplyThe Wind
How Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD? [view article]
Very difficult to read your insert - when I clicked on it, it was the same size as in the article. I gave up. Reply'Index Speculators' Responsible For Commodity Prices? [view article]
US Declining: Hmm. Well, if so, we have a TON of declining to do. Ranks by GDP.1 United States 13,843,825
2 Japan 4,383,762
3 Germany 3,322,147
4 China 3,250,827
5 United Kingdom 2,772,570
6 France 2,560,255
7 Italy 2,104,666
8 Spain 1,438,959
9 Canada 1,432,140
10 Brazil 1,313,590
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