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Tuesday, June 18, 8:54 AM "The biggest contrarian play in the market today is assets linked to China (FXI, CAF)," says Michael Hartnett, summarizing BAML's latest Fund Manager Survey, which shows money flowing out of commodities (DBC) and emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO). Where's the money going? The eurozone and the U.S. Where it's not going is fixed-income (AGG, BND) - 50% of managers say they're now underweight bonds as opposed to 38% last month. Comment!
Wednesday, May 8, 2:52 PM The recent selloff in commodities (DBC) is not a correction, says Stan Druckenmiller, now on stage at Ira Sohn, but instead the end of the supercycle. Avoid commodity markets - Brazil (EWZ, BRF, BRL), South Africa (EZA, SZR), Canada (EWC, FXC). "Frankly, I'd short the aussie (FXA)." His largest equity holding? "I can't imagine a better position than Google (GOOG)" - selling for 16x earnings and no exposure to China. 4 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Monday, May 6, 8:31 AM The commodity boom (DBC) is over, writes Morgan Stanley global macro chief Ruchir Sharma, as massive overinvestment - mostly to feed China's voracious demand - comes online just at the time said demand becomes considerably less voracious. Not only are China and emerging markets in general slowing, but the countries are striving to become more efficient (USO) as well. "If historical pattern holds, we are now entering a long period of falling commodity prices, which could last two decades." 2 Comments [Commodities]
Wednesday, May 1, 10:41 AM Commodities are lit up bright red as weak economic data (here and in China) is a good excuse to end the bounce of the last few sessions. Gold (GLD -1.8%), Silver (SLV -3.6%), WTI Crude (USO -2.6%). Copper (JJC -3.3%) moves to its lowest level in about 18 months at $3.08/lb. The metal hasn't had a 2-handle since the start of 2011. Broad commodity gauge (DBC -1.8%). 5 Comments [Commodities, On the Move]
Friday, April 12, 3:01 PM It's "death bells" for commodities, says Citigroup, calling 2013 the year in which it's realized the commodity supercycle is over and a new era in which the relative performance of how "stuff" performs against each other and other assets is what matters. Specifically on oil, Citi calls Q1's move higher without merit and expects the recent downtick in prices to continue. 70 Comments [Commodities]
Monday, March 11, 8:24 AM Speculators cut net long positions in commodity contacts by 9.2% last week, according to CFTC data. At 406K contracts, it's the lowest net long position since the epic March 2009 bottom. Not surprisingly, the positioning is following the trend in commodity prices, which have tumbled over the past few weeks. Goldman last week: Buy the dip. DBC thus far this year. 3 Comments [Commodities]
Friday, March 8, 7:06 AM Buy the dip in commodities, says Goldman, raising its 3-month outlook for raw materials after the recent price dip. "The recent selloff in commodities on worries about Chinese growth is overdone in our view and we upgrade to overweight on a 3-month horizon," says the bank's commodities research chief. DBC -2.4% YTD. Comment! [Commodities]
Wednesday, February 20, 11:28 AM Non-agricultural commodities sell off sharply across the board. GLD -1.4%, SLV -2.3%, USO -2%, JJC -1.1%. Lumber futures -2.5%. Chatter circulates of a troubled hedge fund being forced to exit. Broad commodity ETF: DBC -0.9%. 10 Comments [Commodities]
Wednesday, February 6, 11:36 AM Institutional investors pull back from commodity bets as the sector fails to deliver on its key appeal as an effective hedge against volatile stocks. Influential Calpers - which led the way into commodities a decade ago - leads the way out, pulling 55% of its holdings after years of losses. DBC flat Y/Y. 2 Comments [Commodities]
Wednesday, January 30, 11:10 AM This just in, commodity prices are falling, writes technician Michael Kahn. The CRB index is lower now than when the Fed launched QE∞ in September, and down 18% over a roughly 2-year period. Though still in tight supply, the grains (JJG) are off 16% since late summer, and softs like coffee, sugar, and cocoa are in multi-month bear markets. 4 Comments [Commodities]
Wednesday, December 26, 2012, 4:14 PM Corn has delivered the best 2012 performance of ten major commodities tracked by Bespoke: buoyed by strong Asian demand, its price has risen 17.3% YTD. Coffee has delivered the worst performance, declining 34.8% - expect that drop to provide a nice 2013 lift to the margins of SBUX, DNKN, and other coffee chains, as it becomes reflected in new contract prices. Oil is down 8%, its first annual decline since '08. 7 of the 10 tracked commodities are up on the year. Comment! [Commodities, Consumer]
Thursday, December 6, 2012, 4:44 PM The commodity super cycle has entered has entered a "renaissance" period, says Goldman, in which prices may not go a lot higher, but markets in "backwardation" - near-term prices greater than those further out - will create the opportunity for "significant investment returns." Comment! [Commodities]
Tuesday, December 4, 2012, 5:57 PM Phosphorus: The finite supply of it is why Jeremy Grantham predicts a grim future for much of the world's population. As production of the critical ingredient for fertilizer drops, so will crop yields, which will threaten the ability to feed the world's population. Grantham thinks the finite supply of fertilizer and limits of crop yields already are starting to affect food prices. 6 Comments [Commodities, Global & FX]
Monday, December 3, 2012, 4:57 PM The commodity supercycle isn't over yet, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, pointing to a contrarian RBA study arguing China's heavy consumption of key metals and oil is just getting underway. Consider how well the prices of these commodities have held up in 2012 despite slumping worldwide growth, especially in China. Toss in central banks printing away ... do you really want to sell commodities now? DBC +5% YTD. Comment! [Commodities]
Monday, November 19, 2012, 11:33 AM The commodity super cycle is over," says Ed Morse, head of commodity research for Citigroup, and even heavy central bank printing isn't bringing it back. "No longer will a pure long-only strategy bring in the returns expected in 2002-08. Nor will conditions approximating those of the last decade return any time soon." DBC +2.4% Y/Y. Comment! [Commodities]
Friday, November 16, 2012, 9:32 AM Industrial metals prices are set to rally into the middle of 2013, says Westpac's Justin Smirk, who has the hottest hand in forecasting of late. He's keeping it simple: Easy money in the U.S. and Europe will combine with a rebounding Chinese economy. Copper, zinc, nickel, and aluminum are all headed higher. Comment! [Commodities]

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