Wed, Feb. 18, 1:06 PM
- As CIO of BMO Private Bank, Jack Ablin has recommended an overweight position in large-cap U.S.stocks since 2010. BMO is currently 50% overweight the U.S., but is getting ready to sell.
- "We're going to go from substantially overweighting the U.S. to neutral to underweight,” Ablin tells Howard Gold. "This is a major policy decision ... Over the next three to five years the U.S. is going to take a back seat to international markets.”
- His reasoning: U.S. stocks are too expensive, and while companies are beating Q4 estimates, analysts have sharply cut 2015 earnings growth forecasts to 2.6% from 8.1% as recently as late last year.
- ETFs: VUG, VTV, VV, SCHX, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FEX, JKD, EEH, JKE, IWY, EQL, EZY, PWB, IWL, IWX, FTC, JKF, SFK, IELG, ERW, FWDD, RWG, GVT, SYG, SYE, SYV, SBUS, ZLRG
Oct. 13, 2014, 10:30 AM
- "Active managers have totally panicked," says Ryan Detrick, commenting on the latest NAAIM survey showing a cliff-dive in equity exposure to its lowest level since May 2012.
- ETFs: VUG, VTV, VV, SCHX, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FEX, JKD, JKE, IWY, EEH, EQL, PWB, EZY, IWX, IWL, FTC, JKF, SFK, IELG, FWDD, ERW, RWG, GVT, SYG, SYE, SYV
Jun. 10, 2014, 3:19 PM
- "Relative to the past 50 years, this stock market has been abandoned and orphaned even as it had made participants wealthy," writes Bill Smead, drawing on a Howard Gold report showing only 37.7% of global investable assets were in equity at the end of 2012, the lowest since 1959 when records first began being kept.
- Why? The mass movement to fixed income, the trendy move towards wide-asset allocation at the expense of plain-vanilla large-cap U.S. equities, the rise of alternative investing, and the echo-boomers - born between 1977 and 1996 - have been much slower to get married, have kids, buy houses, and invest in stocks than previous generations.
- Smead's prediction: As rates rise over the next 10 years, fixed-income will sour and equity dividend payout ratios will normalize. Further returns from commodities and other esoteric asset classes won't match their once-in-a-lifetime moves from 1999-2012 and investors will lose interest. Rising rates will make LBOs less economic and private equity returns will decline.
- "The lack of affection for US large cap equities will mute declines and reward patient long-duration owners of quality common stocks."
- ETFs: VUG, VTV, VV, SCHX, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FEX, JKD, EQL, JKE, IWY, PWB, EZY, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, IWL, SFK, RWG, ERW, IELG, FWDD, GVT, SYG, SYE, SYV
Feb. 21, 2014, 2:48 PM
- Maybe sensing the moderate early-2014 selloff is done with, investors poured $13.4B into equities in the latest week, according to BAML - the strongest in 12 weeks and bringing YTD equity asset-gathering back to flat.
- Emphasizing the risk appetite theme, flows into high-yield bonds of $2.4B were the highest in 17 weeks, and money-market funds saw outflows of $40.45B after receiving inflows of $11.55B the previous week.
- Still, emerging market debt and equity continues to be sold. In fact, outflows from EM equities over the past four weeks have risen to 2.2% of AUM - just shy of the 3% level which signals a contrarian "buy" signal, says BAML.
- Turning into a pretty good contrarian signal himself, is Hugh Hendry, who dropped his multi-year caution in December to get "long pretty much anything." His Eclectica Fund subsequently lost 3.6% in January - its worst monthly tally ever.
- Related ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, NY, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, PWB, JKE, EZY, IWX, FTC, EEH, SPXH, JKF, SFK, TRSK, RWG, FWDD, FNDX, PXLC, ERW, PXLV, GVT, SYG, ALTL, PXLG, SYE, SYV, IELG
Jan. 8, 2014, 2:41 PM
- State Street Global Advisors, the industry giant behind popular SPDR funds such as SPY and GLD, will laund the SPDR MFS Systematic Core Equity ETF (SYE), Growth Equity ETF (SYG), and Value Equity ETF (SYV) on January 9th.
- Each employing different size and style specific strategies, these new funds will appeal to investors looking for capital appreciation and agility in the markets.
- The addition of 3 active ETFs is a large step for State Street, as there are currently only 5 ETFs in their portfolio that employ an active strategy: GAL, RLY, INKM, ULST, SRLN
- Other actively managed equity ETFs: SYLD, TTFS, HDGE, IELG, FWDD, ACCU, FWDI, HUSE, RWG, ONEF, IESM, GVT, RPX
Jan. 7, 2014, 1:12 PM
- The future looks like the recent past to Citi Private Bank, which - in its 2014 outlook - says stocks have room to run, but beware fixed income. Citi's projections are based on its Adaptive Valuation Strategies which looks at long-term valuation averages to gauge what an asset might offer in the coming decade.
- "Our long-term AVS return estimates for government, investment-grade corporate and high-yield bonds are only 1.9%, 3.4% and 2.9% respectively. The recent rise in bond yields has helped emerging markets where estimated returns have now risen to 5.1%."
- Don't toss away fixed-income entirely, says Citi, but instead cut duration exposure, look for credit risk instead of rate risk, diversify into MLPs, REITs, and dividend stocks, and favor floating-rate investments.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, ISTB, GVI, GBF, FWDB, MINC, GIY, AGND, AGZD
- Broad equity ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, MGV, FLAG, DOD, JKD, FEX, IWY, EQL, JKE, EZY, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, RWG, FNDX, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 26, 2013, 9:35 AM
- Bulls in the AAII Investor Sentiment Index rose 7.6 points to 55.1% in the week ended yesterday, the highest level since early January 2011. The long-term bullish average is 39%.
- Bearish sentiment slumped 6.5 points to 18.5%. The long-term average is 30.5%.
- Broad market ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 11, 2013, 12:08 PM
- "2014 is the year to squeeze more juice out of risk assets. But investors should be ready to discard the fruit when it starts running dry," says BlackRock's Ewen Cameron Watt in the firm's 2014 Investment Outlook. "Beware of traffic jams: easy to get into, hard to get out of."
- Behind the view is the idea central banks (U.S., U.K, Canada, China, to name a few) are poised to begin tightening monetary policy.
- BlackRock doesn't believe stocks are yet in a bubble, but its "risk indicator" - measuring enterprise value against earnings adjusted for volatility - is nearly as high as just before the dotcom bust. "The ratio of the two is the key. High valuations combined with low volatility can make for a lethal mix. This market gauge sounded the alarm well before the Great Financial Crisis."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, FWDD, PXLC, ALTL, PXLV, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 6, 2013, 1:13 PM
- "The great peril is not that the Fed finally tightens monetary policy and US stock prices suddenly tumble from what are very obviously overpriced levels," writes Hugh Hendry in his December letter, explaining his new-found bullishness. "The greater peril is that the current backdrop will turn out to mark a rapid acceleration in the ongoing move to the upside."
- In a highly entertaining essay drawing inspiration from the classic Bob Ryan character who popped up on HBO's Entourage for a couple of episodes, Hendry notes the eerie comparison to the markets of 1928, 1982, and 1998 - all ended badly, yes, but participants made plenty of money during the boom phase.
- "Just be long. Pretty much anything."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, PKW, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Jun. 5, 2013, 7:07 AMFirst Trust has decided to transform FDV into the First Trust Capital Strength ETF (FTCS) as FDV failed to attract significant investor interest. FTCS will offer exposure to U.S. large-caps with a low volatility growth tilt. | Comment!
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