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- Global P&E Ratios and Dividend Yields [view article]
- International ETF Update: China, Japan, Austria [view article]
- Interview with Kevin Carter, AlphaShares CEO [view article]
- Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
- Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
- ETFs: Implications of Goldman Sachs Predictions [view article]
- Want to See a Bursting Bubble? [view article]
- International ETF Update: China, India [view article]
- What China's Stock Market Implosion Means for Oil [view article]
- ETF Update: China, South Africa, Japan [view article]
- Going Long China: Seeing Is Believing [view article]
- China, Russia Exceptions to Global Economic Slowdown [view article]
loading ...Recent GXC Articles
- Interview with Kevin Carter, AlphaShares CEO
- Global P&E Ratios and Dividend Yields
- Six Reasons To Buy China Soon
- Want to See a Bursting Bubble?
- International ETF Update: China, Japan, Austria
- International ETF Update: China, India
- ETFs: Implications of Goldman Sachs Predictions
- ETF Update: China, South Africa, Japan
- Getting Through the Mess in the Markets
- The Case for Buying China Now
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Global P&E Ratios and Dividend Yields [view article]
Are the P/E's in Europe low because people think the Euro is overvalued? ReplyGlobal P&E Ratios and Dividend Yields [view article]
Aberdeen Australia fund (IAF), even with the potential of a distribution drop will still be yielding about 8-9% IMO and is an excellent vehicle for participation in Asian growth. ReplyInternational ETF Update: China, Japan, Austria [view article]
Every day, in IBD, there is a chart on an ETF. However, the volume on some of these issues is relatively small. Question: Is there a critical point under which it makes no sense to follow a particular ETF? A few days ago, I took a small position in FXI, which generally has large volume and, thus, small bid-ask spread. Comments? ReplyInterview with Kevin Carter, AlphaShares CEO [view article]
thanks- great informative article ReplyGlobal P&E Ratios and Dividend Yields [view article]
AOD with 17% interest is full of fine quality European stocks. It is a relatively new ETF and untested, but they have managed to pay excellent rates without resorting to Auction Rate Securities. ReplySix Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
when do countries like china ever escape the manufacturing mode and produce high quality goods that create real growth and a real competitive opportunity? i dont see that trend so where is the sustainable growth from a country with an anti-capitalism culture? ReplySingle Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
They left out the Swiss Helvetica Fund (SWZ, I think) the only single country CEF for Switzerland I know of. ReplySix Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
Toxxum, great comments. China is not consumer economy. It is based mainly on exports. I would not touch China unless we really know how economic situation really looks like. That means fall of communist regime. It's good that author is buying into regime's happy numbers. Makes their economy go, economy keeps going. lalala-all is well. ReplyETFs: Implications of Goldman Sachs Predictions [view article]
I agree that the world is developing but I still don't think America and Europe will not have periods of expansion. A lot of the emerging economies will experience thier growing pains of booms and busts and if you do not have an industry you are done. ReplySix Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
I was living in China for quite a few years and I wouldn't touch Chinese equities with a broom. Rapidly ageing population (in 2020, there will be more pensioners than people under employment); the environmental damage is estimated to eat up 10% of its GDP; the huge currency reserves are a result of the government printing money and then buying foreign currencies to keep the Yuan low; increasingly civil unrest (51,000 incidents last year alone); banking sector is burdened with huge non-perperforming loans; statistics are notoriously unreliable and mostly fake (how do you collect GDP data from the authorities of 30 provinces which are not fully computerized, yet publish monthly stats on the 2nd day of the following month??); the central government is desperately trying to hold to its powers by spending huge amounts on censorship (ever heard of the "China Great Electronic Wall"?); 70% of the population live on less than USD 1,000 per year etc etc.Be careful before you invest. I was running a company with a few hundred people and I can assure you that what you read in your local newspapers does not reflect reality! Reply
Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
TechyFor the starters, India calculates Inflation using Wholesale Price Index (WPI): www.rediff.com/money/2....
I am being shocked at what I see at the retail level, at the Department Stores. On your next visit here, you will be surprised too. :)
When did we start excluding Housing from Inflation? Housing's share is about 20% worldwide ( or even more, can someone please supply the statistic?). I see no reason in excluding Housing from the basket as you are suggesting. Actually if you look at it, it is even more the reason to consider it seriously at this juncture: All this while, irrespective of the Housing Prices appreciation , the renting costs remained low, with the rents not having gone up noticably (I am no "Elitist" as you were suggesting - only a handful pockets of people were experiencing the housing price increase in the last 5 years, mainly in the technology areas). But now, everyone is starting to see and feel it. My own parents have started seeing people withholding from renting unless they are being rewarded with huge rent increases (around 20%). www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifp0...
No disrespect but just noticing something: You are being a true techy: Being a non-US investor, you were saying that it doesnt worry you what the underlying Economy's inflation rate is, since you feel currency exchange appreciation takes care of the equation: Please dont invest with out consideration of the fundamentals. That will not bode well for long term returns. In that case may be you should invest in Zimbabwe :) ( Disclaimer: I am just kidding, no serious offense).
It is true that one doesn't need to worry abt local currency's inflation if we are valuing companies in $. I just happened to start noticing something about one company's market capital and then it stuck me: That the WACC could be extremely high. RIL's market cap is around 3Trillion (local currency - I am not kidding). I dont know what kind of growth rate would support that kind of market cap. May be, all Indian companies should now start loading up on Debt.
One other thing: India was able to grow fast, as it had enormous amounts of labor available with out companies resorting to wage increases (not a lot other than technology and BPO). I believe they were able to satisfy Aggregate Demand with out major price level increases in the last few years - without resulting in major inflation. I mean with out Aggregate Supply curves shifting that much. The economy was humming and exports were good. Now I believe the times have dawned for major shifts. Anticipated inflation itself is 13% so I dont understand how it cannot feed into major AS curve shifts. In fact, this maynot bode well for Developed economies like US which were fed by cheap exported goods. (I think this is also true of China eventhough the underlying economies have major differences - structural?)
Even though Indians saved massively earlier, I am not sure the same will continue. Flow of foreign capital was good (even though it may have dried up now - need to locate real figures now), but with a negative real rate of savings, will they keep saving? ( I am suspecting they will not from whatI am seeing - there is a huge splurge). If domestic savings dry up and with Govt competing for foreign Capital, what will be the ramifications?
Overall, I dont think the times have come to start taking long term positions in India. Wait and you will be rewarded.
PS: Techy, I am no Elitist. Wagres should increase. But I am worried about unwinding of a spiral - of price level increases. I just happened to read this article and about India and thought I should express some of my concerns. India is long term story, but may be not now. I am passing it. Reply
Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
As Jim Rogers says investing in China in 2008 is like invsting in the United States in 1907.The prospects are brilliant for medium to long term players. Visit a good Jim Rogers Blog at jimrogers-investments.... Reply
Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
www.investorsinsight.c...people tend to extrapolate trends and usually do not expect major interruptions or deviations. The business cy<cle is neiter dead nor can it be cheated over longer periods of time. China is going to get a heavy recessionary fallout from the recession that arrives in the usa and europe. the stock market there is signalling it all year.
in that downturn it will be seen how robust and of what quality china#s growth really is/was. and regarding the forex reserves: they may soon find themselves in a position where they will have to spent billions and billions to rescue once again their own banking system. the us-subprime sector looks like prime when compared to china#s lending standards. watch out below.
therw ill be a time to buy china with both hands. it hasn't arrived yet. similar with india - though their economy has different problems than the chinese and might overall weather the coming months better Reply
Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
China is a Tiger - NOT a Dragon.In terms of Inflation India is probably nearer 15% - 16%
It has to be said that 1000% increase in property price also reflects a very worrying statistic. China has seen 500% gains. Anything over that (regardless of fundamentals) really reflects enviroment of extreme inflation.
I also believe that India and China are two completly different economies. And that analysing the future of one to predict the other is useless. I believe the single most important thing about where China is heading has to do with the huge reserves the government has and the pro-growth/pro-employm... government officials back-pockets policies.
China just spent 80 billion USD on the Olympic Games to show the rest of ther World its power etc etc.
They really would not think twice about spending 200-400 billion USD out of the 2+ trillion they have to stimulate demand during the next few years of hardship.
China's cushion is huge.
Reply
Six Reasons To Buy China Soon [view article]
I am not bullish on india, but i kind of disagree with "From India" on that inflation being 25%.i hope he is not including the price of a house...which has gone up 1000% in some locations in the past 4-5 years.
according to me the biggest cost of of living in india is commodities and energy.
and if i am not wrong, the cost of commodity and energy is almost same all over the world (+-5%), so if inflation in india is 25%, then it has to be atleast 15% all over the world.
i am not in india but i have family and friends and if we exclude the housing thing, inflation is definitely not 25%, yes it is more than 7-8%, but that is mostly due to commodities and energy skyrocketing all over the world.
by the same measure real inflation must more than 6-7% even in usa. (cost of gas itself is more than 30% YoY)
another thing, if the currency of india is not depreciating against USD, then it does not matter if inflation is 20% or 40%, for a non-indian investor.
and in the past 2-3 years, indian currency has appreciated against the dollar.
From India: you sound like an elitist.....when you say wages are rising....what do you expect, inflation is high but wages to stay stagnant?? Reply