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HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC)

- NYSE
  • Nov. 5, 2013, 5:30 PM
  • Oct. 15, 2013, 11:35 AM
    • Shares of refining companies move higher after Howard Weil's positive note on the sector, whose relative underperformance provides an opportunity for investors who felt they had missed their opportunity to participate in the U.S. energy renaissance to have another shot.
    • The firm singles out three stocks for upgrades: HollyFrontier (HFC +2%) and Valero (VLO +0.2%) are upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform, while Marathon Petroleum (MPC +1.6%) is made a Focus Stock.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 11, 2013, 11:46 AM
    • Refiners continue to rise a day after news of a leaked EPA proposal that would significantly scale back biofuel blending requirements next year.
    • The EPA's rationale for a cut in the volume of ethanol that must be blended echoes an argument the oil industry has made for months: The U.S. fuel chain cannot absorb more ethanol.
    • Let the lawsuits begin: "Any plan to roll back the targets... under the guise of addressing the blend wall would be patently unlawful," says the head of the Renewable Fuels Association.
    • TSO +4.4%, VLO +3.4%, PSX +3.1%, MPC +2.2%, WNR +4.5%, HFC +2.2%, ALJ +6.8%, CVI +2.6%, NTI +2%, DK +7.8%, CLMT +1.8%.
    | 18 Comments
  • Oct. 10, 2013, 2:18 PM
    • Chevron (CVX -0.4%) is lower after warning "significantly lower" earnings from its refining division would send Q3 EPS down Q/Q.
    • J.P. Morgan believes investors were anticipating relatively soft downstream results given the currently weak refining margin environment; perhaps that's why refiners are holding up very well today: VLO +4.4%, TSO +3.7%, PSX +2.3%, ALJ +6.7%, MPC +4.5%, WNR +3.7%, HFC +4.2%, CVI +4.6%.
    • Citigroup worries about CVX's upstream business too; it was expecting a much larger increase in Q3 production which would put CVX on track to meet its full year guidance of 2,650M boe/day.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 7, 2013, 6:26 PM
    • HollyFrontier's (HFC) credit rating is upgraded two notches to Baa3 - into investment grade - at Moody's, citing the refiner's low leverage and history of conservative financial policies.
    • HFC "will continue to be one of the industry leaders in through-the-cycle profitability given its crude procurement advantages emanating from the locations of its refineries near the major shale plays in the U.S.," the ratings agency says.
    | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 7, 2013, 2:47 PM
    • Refining stocks are lower as HollyFrontier (HFC -0.7%) is hit with a downgrade from Imperial Capital, which dropped its rating to In-Line from Outperform, reduces its price target to $41 from $49, and cuts its 2013 EPS estimate to $3.83 from $4.83 and 2014 EPS estimate to $3.50 from $4.00.
    • The firm sees continued contraction in refining margins and crude price differentials, especially as the southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline commences operation later this month.
    • Other refiners: VLO -0.6%, TSO -0.8%, MPC -1.4%, PSX -1.5%, WNR -1.4%, ALJ -2.5%, CVI -2.5%.
    | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 4, 2013, 3:23 PM
    • Refiners generally face a "deteriorating earnings outlook," and any potential stock gains in the next six months may not be enough to offset "the inherent downside risk from weaker earnings," Oppenheimer says.
    • The firm downgrades HollyFrontier (HFC flat), Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.1%), Phillips 66 (PSX -0.5%), Tesoro (TSO +1%) and Valero (VLO +0.9%) to Perform from Outperform, and removes price targets for the stocks.
    • On a more positive note, the firm says refiners it follows are now in their best shape operationally and financially in years.
    • Outlooks for refiners have been mostly pessimistic, although Citigroup upgraded VLO and TSO earlier this week.
    | 9 Comments
  • Oct. 2, 2013, 4:57 PM
    • More on Citigroup's take on oil refiners: The firm expects to see a bottoming of earnings in Q4 for most names, but companies overweight the Midcontinent and/or Midwest could experience a difficult earnings environment through Q1 2014.
    • The diverging earnings performance will result in positive price appreciation for some refiners - such as Valero (VLO) and Tesoro (TSO), which earn upgrades to Buy - but underperformance for others, such as on Alon USA (ALDW), CVR Refining (CVRR), Holly Frontier (HFC) and PBF Energy (PBF), which will remain pressured by narrowing price differences between WTI and Brent crude.
    • TSO will benefit next year from a tighter gasoline market in California, and VLO will benefit from wider heavy-light differentials in H2 2014 as increased Canadian heavy crude flows to the U.S. Gulf coast, Citi says (earlier: I, II).
    | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 2, 2013, 3:26 PM
    • It's a pretty good day for refiners, even as most energy stocks slip, as Phillips 66 (PSX +2.1%), Valero (VLO +1.2%), Tesoro (TSO +0.2%), Western Refining (WNR +1.2%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +1.2%) and HollyFrontier (HFC +0.4%) all post gains.
    • PSX rises the most among energy companies in the S&P 500 after announcing a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend, VLO and TSO are upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup (I, II), and WNR rolls out a 12.5M-share IPO of its logistics unit.
    • Refiners generally have come in for criticism recently; Barclays, for one, believes most refiners will miss consensus earnings expectations by a wide margin, with VLO the exception.
    • ETFs: IEO, IEZ, IYE, PXE, PXI, XES, XLE, XOP, VDE, RYE, FXN, OIH, PXJ, PSCE, ERX, DIG, ERY, DUG, DDG.
    | 2 Comments
  • Sep. 10, 2013, 3:17 PM
    • It's still not time to buy the refiners, Deutsche Bank says, even after the beat-down which has sent  Valero (VLO) -7.3%, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) -17%, Tesoro (TSO) -21%, Phillips 66 (PSX) -13% and HollyFrontier (HFC) -7.7% in the past three months.
    • The firm sees a potential entry point around October/November, but a Q3 round of earnings downgrades likely will bring lower equity prices; it's better to wait, "as global oil markets have become weakened by super-high oil prices and demand may be too damaged to allow for a strong winter for refining."
    • Several sell-side firms have expressed similar trepidations recently.
    | 9 Comments
  • Sep. 9, 2013, 2:23 PM
    • Refiners (PXE, RYE, IOIL) are broadly underperforming the rest of the energy sector today after a Simmons downgrade to Neutral from Overweight, expecting continuing challenges to EPS and refining margins in Q3 and into 2014 after a dismal Q2.
    • Individual stocks lowered by the firm: Marathon Petroleum (MPC -1.5%), Tesoro (TSO -0.6%), Delek US (DK -1.3%), Alon USA (ALJ -0.5%), CVR Energy (CVI -1.8%), CVR Partners (CVRR -1.2%).
    • HollyFrontier (HFC -1.8%) breaks down to fresh multi-week lows after a downgrade from Morgan Stanley.
    • Also, Barclays says at its Energy-Power conference that it believes most refiners will miss current consensus expectations by a wide margin, with Valero (VLO +0.7%) the exception (Briefing.com).
    | 1 Comment
  • Aug. 29, 2013, 12:44 PM
    | 1 Comment
  • Aug. 15, 2013, 10:56 AM
    • "The real problem for small inland North American oil refiners is that the improvements to continental oil distribution networks are cutting away their advantage on feedstock prices," Reuters says, in an attempt to explain ACON and TPG's partial sale of their controlling stake in the general partner of Northern Tier Energy (NTI -2.2%).
    • Because NTI is "well-positioned to profit from anticipated dislocations in North American oil prices," speculation is that the private-equity divestiture says something about how likely such dislocations are to return and how tough the fight will be going forward for small, inland oil refineries if they do not.
    • Other inland refiners: CVI -2.3%, WNR -0.4%, HFC -1.1%
    • More on inland refiners and the Brent-WTI spread here.
    | 4 Comments
  • Aug. 7, 2013, 10:01 AM
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  • Aug. 7, 2013, 8:37 AM
    • HollyFrontier (HFC) Q2 earnings fell 48% as refinery margins narrowed amid lower production, but says the proximity of its refineries to U.S. crude-producing regions would keep refining margins healthy.
    • Refinery gross margin dropped 28% to $20.28/bbl from $27.43 a year ago.
    • Planned and unplanned maintenance at its Tulsa, El Dorado and Cheyenne refineries contributed to lower production.
    • Declares a special dividend of $0.50/share in addition to the regular $0.30 quarterly dividend.
    • Shares -2.8% premarket.
    | Comment!
  • Aug. 7, 2013, 7:06 AM
    • HollyFrontier (HFC): Q2 EPS of $1.40 misses by $0.04.
    • Revenue of $5.30B (+10% Y/Y) beats by $0.75B. (PR)
    | Comment!
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Company Description
HollyFrontier Corp is an independent petroleum refiner. It produces high-value light products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. It operates in two segments; Refining and HEP.