Q3 2009 Earnings Call

November 5, 2009 10:30 a.m. ET

• Fed stays put. The Fed Open Market Committee left target rates unchanged at 0-0.25% by unanimous vote, saying conditions are still "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The Fed acknowledged an ongoing pickup in economic activity, but warned things are likely to remain weak for a while. It noted "substantial" resource slack will continue to dampen cost pressures, and it continues to believe "inflation will remain subdued for some time." It also pared its expectations for buying agency debt and agency MBS to $175B compared to a former maximum of $200B, to wrap up by the end of Q1. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Wednesday's statement with the previous one. Stocks surged after the statement, but a late-day selloff sent major indexes back to breakeven.
Attention Wall Street Breakfast readers: We're looking for a freelance financial journalist to produce WSB and help with our Market Currents blog in Rachael's absence. More details here.
• Dodd's drastic detour on bank regulation. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd is reportedly readying legislation that would strip the Fed and FDIC of almost all their bank-supervision powers, creating in their place a new agency in charge of supervising all banks and bank-holding companies. Dodd's proposal would also create a council of regulators, overseen by the White House, to monitor systemic risks to the financial system. The suggestion is in stark contrast to approaches taken by the House and favored by the Obama administration, which have pushed to expand the Fed's powers. Dodd's model is likely to face heavy resistance, particularly from the banking industry, which is ironic since Dodd has been criticized for being too cozy with Wall Street bankers.
• Skype deal almost done. The private-equity investors that agreed to buy 65% of Skype from eBay (EBAY) for about $2.1B are on the verge of settling their dispute with Skype's founders in a deal that will give them 10% of Skype and a presence on its board, in exchange for giving up rights to the peer-to-peer technology they control and a significant amount of cash. An official announcement could come as soon as this morning.
• Senate shuffles taxes. The Senate passed legislation Wednesday that would give tax breaks to big companies impacted by the recession; increase taxes on multinational firms; extend and expand the homebuyers tax credit; and lengthen unemployment benefits. The proposed tax increases are aimed at offsetting the cost of the breaks, which business leaders worry may be a harbinger of more tax increases to come.
• Chambers sounds all clear. Cisco's (CSCO) net profit dropped 19% on lower sales (see data below), but CEO John Chambers gave an optimistic outlook on the economy and said businesses were ready to resume spending on technology. On Cisco's Q3 earnings call, Chambers told analysts the recovery "is well underway" and that economic improvements were "gaining momentum" worldwide. He also predicted Cisco's revenue would grow in Q4 after a year of contraction.
• Junk default rate hits post-Depression high. The global speculative-grade default rate rose to 12.4% in October, surpassing the record set in 1991 for the highest proportion of defaults since the Great Depression, Moody's said in a report this morning. Moody's believes the default rate may peak in November at 12.5%, noting the total number of defaults declined to eight in October, the lowest count this year.
• Big bonuses are back. Wall Street incentive pay is set to rise by about 40% according to a closely-watched survey to be released today, as stronger markets collide with the backlash over bonuses. Johnson Associates predicts incentive-based payouts will surge by as much as 60% from 2008, led by employees in rebounding businesses like fixed income and equities. In contrast, the firm predicts declines of 15-30% at hedge funds, private-equity firms and prime-brokerage operations which have seen a marked drop in AUM.
• Consumer bankruptcy strikes new high. Consumer bankruptcy filings hit 135,913 in October, an 8.9% jump from September, and 27.9% higher than a year ago, according to a study by the American Bankruptcy Institute. "The debt overhang from literally a decade or more of really high consumer spending and low savings rates has put families in a particularly vulnerable spot," ABI's Samuel Gerdano said. The rise outpaced a 7% month-on-month increase in business filings.
• Downgrade dominance declines. S&P said it downgraded only one more nonfinancial firm in October than it upgraded (24-23), a marked improvement considering the downgrade/upgrade ratio from Sept. 2008 to Aug. 2009 was 835-115. S&P said the large drop "supports our belief that aggregate credit quality, although weak, is stabilizing," and noted that the number of companies with a negative ratings outlook or on watch for downgrade has declined steadily. Meanwhile, more than $4B in new corporate bonds were offered Wednesday, including a $2B sale by DuPont (DD).
• BOE boosts bond buying: The Bank of England kept its target bank rate at 0.5%, as expected, but raised its bond buying program to £200B from £175B, which it expects to complete in about three months. "Banks’ funding conditions have improved, though financial conditions remain fragile," the Bank said, and noted "a number of indicators of spending and confidence, however, suggest that a pickup in economic activity may soon be evident."
• Private-sector jobs still sliding. ADP's October employment report showed private U.S. payrolls declined by 203,000, while revising September's loss to 227K from 254K - the seventh straight month of declining job losses. ADP's report comes two days before the government's official nonfarm payroll data, and has been reasonably well correlated with NFP data in recent months. Consensus estimates suggest 150–175K job losses in October and an unemployment rate of 9.9%.
• Online job seeking rises slowly. Monster's index of online job advertising inched up to 120, vs. 119 in Sept and 150 a year ago. Healthcare and public administration demonstrated solid growth, but retail and hospitality hiring retracted. "The rise in the October Index, along with an improvement in the annual rate, indicate a mild expansion in the underlying employer demand for workers," Monster said. "While the decline in consumer confidence has likely contributed to reduced job demand in the retail and hospitality sectors, employers are actively recruiting in the healthcare and public sectors, resulting in stability of the overall Index."

Earnings: Thur. Before Open

• Allied Capital (ALD): Q3 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $M in-line. Shares -1.3% premarket. (PR)
• Biovail (BVF): Q3 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $212M in-line. (PR)
• Cardinal Health (CAH): FQ1 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $24.8B (+5.9%) vs. $24B. (PR)
• Canadian Natural Resource (CNQ): Q3 EPS of C$1.21 misses by C$0.04. Revenue of C$2.82B (+2.7%) vs. C$2.99B. (PR)
• CenturyTel (CTL): Q3 EPS of $0.90 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.87B (+188.3%) in-line. (PR)
• CIGNA (CI): Q3 EPS of $1.13 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $4.52B (-6.9%) in-line. (PR)
• CVS Caremark (CVS): Q3 EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $24.6B (+17.7%) in-line. Shares +1% premarket. (PR)
• Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Q3 EPS of -$0.35 misses by $0.24. Revenue of $23.9M (-66.8%) vs. $21.9M. "We are extremely disappointed with the results of the Gray well, but exploration drilling carries with it significant risks." Shares -12.8% premarket. (PR)
• DirecTV Group (DTV): Q3 EPS of $0.37 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $5.47B in-line. (PR)
• Dr Pepper Snapple (DPN): Q3 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.43B (-4%) in-line. Sees full-year EPS of $1.92-1.96 vs. $1.97. ""While the economy is showing some signs of recovery, it's still too early to see this translate into higher beverage sales. For the quarter, liquid refreshment beverage trends remained negative." Shares +0.7% premarket. (PR)
• Dynegy (DYN): Q3 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $673M (-61.7%) vs. $877M. (PR)
• Frontier Oil (FTO): Q3 EPS of -$0.26 misses by $0.11. Revenue of $1.1B (-45.4%) in-line. (PR)
• King Pharmaceuticals (KG): Q3 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $463M (+19.3%) vs. $445M. (PR)
• Lamar Advertising (LAMR): Q3 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $167M (-13%) vs. $164M. (PR)
• Macerich (MAC): Q3 FFO of $0.97 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $201M (+49.8%) in-line. (PR)
• Manulife Financial (MFC): Q3 EPS of C-$0.12 misses by C$0.32. Revenue of C$13.75B. (PR)
• MGM Mirage (MGM): Q3 EPS of $0.02 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $1.71B (-12.7%) vs. $1.47B. Las Vegas Strip RevPAR fell 21%. Amends credit facility to refinance existing debt and provide more debt of up to $1B. Shares +5.7% premarket. (PR)
• MetroPCS Communications (PCS): Q3 EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $895M (+30.4%) vs. $869M. (PR)
• MF Global (MF): FQ2 EPS of $0.01 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $493M (-40.9%) vs. $273M. (PR)
• Nasdaq (NDAQ): Q3 EPS of $0.42 in-line. Revenue of $691M (+3.3%) vs. $355M. (PR)
• Petrohawk Energy (HK): Q3 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $238M (-22%) vs. $305M. (PR)
• Plains Exploration & Production (PXP): Q3 EPS of $0.30 misses by $0.23. Revenue of $313M (-56.5%) vs. $376M. Shares -0.6% premarket. (PR)
• Sara Lee (SLE): FQ1 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $2.59B (-7.4%) vs. $3.16B. Shares +0.2% premarket. (PR)
• Sirius XM Radio (SIRI): Q3 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $630M (+2.8%) vs. $609M. Ends quarter with 18,515,730 subscribers, +102,295 from Q2. Shares +3.9% premarket. (PR)
• Spectra Energy (SE): Q3 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $933M (-13.6%) vs. $986M. (PR)
• Teradata (TDC): Q3 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $425M (-3.2%) in-line. (PR)
• Thomson Reuters (TRI): Q3 EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3.21B (-3.6%) in-line. "While the weak year-to-date net sales experienced in recent quarters are now flowing through into revenues, we expect this dip to be shallow and limited to the next few quarters." (PR)
• Time Warner Cable (TWC): Q3 EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $4.5B (+3.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Watson Wyatt (WW): FQ1 EPS of $0.84 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $401M (-5.8%) vs. $394M. Sees FQ2 EPS of $0.81-0.86 vs. $0.89 (PR)
• Wendy's Arby's Group (WEN): Q3 EPS of $0.06 in-line. Revenue of $903M vs. $916M. Shares +3.8% premarket. (PR)

Earnings: Wed. After Close

• Allstate (ALL): Q3 EPS of $0.99 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $7.6B (+4%) vs. $8.5B. Shares -2.1% AH. (8-K)
• Amdocs (DOX): FQ4 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $707M (-14%) vs. $679M. Sees Q1 EPS of $0.51-0.55 vs. $0.50, on revenue of $705M-725M vs. $676M. Shares +6.2% AH. (PR)
• Cisco Systems (CSCO): Q3 EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $9B (-13%) vs. $8.7B. Shares +2.8% AH. (PR)
• Corrections Corp. of America (CXW): Q3 EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $426M (+6%) vs. $423M. Shares -2.7% AH. (PR)
• Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE): Q3 EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $42M (-19%) in-line. Shares -5.7% AH. (PR)
• Evergreen Solar (ESLR): Q3 EPS of -$0.40 misses by $0.32. Revenue of $78M (+251%) vs. $74M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
• Goldcorp (GG): Q3 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $692M (+25%) vs. $614M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
• Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): Q3 EPS of -$0.87 misses by $0.70. Revenue of $24M (-61%) vs. $52M. Shares -7% AH. (PR)
• Health Care REIT (HCN): Q3 FFO (normalized) of $0.77 in-line. Revenue of $145M (+4%) vs. $143M. Sees full-year EPS of $3.10-3.12 vs. $3.13. Shares +1.6% AH. (PR)
• ION Geophysical (IO): Q3 EPS of -$0.06 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $102.4M (-53%) vs. $102.6M. Shares -8.4% AH. (PR)
• Microchip Technology (MCHP): FQ2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $227M (-16%) vs. $218M. Sees FQ3 EPS of $0.33-0.35 vs. $0.24, on revenue of $236M-245M vs. $224M. Shares +1.6% AH. (PR)
• Murphy Oil (MUR): Q3 EPS of $0.98 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $5.2B (-37%) vs. $4.4B. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.75-0.90 vs. $1.18. Shares -2% AH. (PR)
• News Corp. (NWS): FQ1 EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $7.2B (-4%) in-line. Shares +3% AH. (PR)
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN): Q3 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $473M (-19%) vs. $455M. Shares +4% AH. (PR)
• Prudential Financial (PRU): Q3 EPS of $1.59 beats by $0.26. Revenue of $6.6B (+4%) vs. $6.65B. Shares +0.4% AH. (PR)
• Qualcomm (QCOM): FQ4 EPS of $0.48 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $2.7B (-19%) vs. $2.8B. Sees Q1 revenue of $2.55B-2.75B vs. $2.84B. Shares +1% AH. (PR)
• Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO): Q3 FFO of $0.14 in-line. Revenue of $176M (-20%) vs. $180M. Shares +2% AH. (PR)
• THQ (THQI): FQ2 EPS of -$0.08 beats by $0.40. Revenue of $101M (-39%) vs. $92M. Shares +11.5% AH. (PR)
• Whole Foods Market (WFMI): FQ4 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.8B (-2%) in-line. Same-store sales down 0.9%. Shares -7.7% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Asian markets were mixed Thursday. Europe is lower at midday, and futures are flat.

• Good chance they beat on 3Q volumes. They traditionally have either come in anywhere from center of guidance range to extremely high to guidance. Haynesville wells have exaggerated this habit. Either way they will be able to say they topped 0.5 Bcfepd for the first time, up huge (like 60%) from 3Q08 levels.
  
  • Mission accomplished. 0.512 Bcfepd largely due to better Haynesville well production.

• Probably a reiteration of the 30 to 40% growth in 2010 they announced last quarter.
  
  • Wrong: They Boosted 2009 numbers and then boosted 2010 to 43% above that bigger base.

• The Street is expecting bigger wells from them in the Eagle Ford. It would seem likely they deliver a modestly higher rate set of wells (just north of 10 MMcfepd, with a focus on more liquids rich wells) as they announced that JV with SFY which begs the question, why do that if the returns don’t justify it? Answer is that the returns due justify it and that the E.F.S. is every good a shale play as the Haynesville from a rock and organic content standpoint.
  
  • Nope, IP's contracted relative to their prior wells - hot topic for the call. They did announce additional acreage in the core and in the oilier Dimitt County area.

• Probably some Haynesville wells, look for drilling time to have fallen again and well costs to be down again. CHK saying some at $6mm now, last HK said was $8.5 mm.
  
  • $9.5 mm year to date average, trending to $8 to 9 mm.

• Budget talk to remain constrained to $1.3 billion next year.
  
  • Close but they upped it to $1.45 billion. But See Next Bullet.
    

• NO DEAL. No debt, no equity, no deal.
  
  • And I quote:
    

The plans outlined today aim to balance 2010 cash flow and expenditures and accelerate drilling in these core shale plays, eliminating the need for future capital raises to fund their development.

• Total production for the first time since May 2006 is down on a year over year basis without the aid of hurricane related shut ins.
• U.S. Lower 48 natural gas production was 58.9 Bcfgpd
  • Down 0.2 Bcfgpd from year ago levels
  • Down 0.6 Bcfgpd from June
  • Since the Spring 2009 peak, Lower 48 produciton is off 0.9 Bcfgpd (1.4%)
• Texas, the largest piece of the U.S. production pie (32% of production), continues to show noticeable declines.
  • Texas production is down 1.5 Bcfgpd from its November 2008 peak (down 7%).
  • Production is down 1.0 Bcfgpd since March 2009.
  • Rigs have recently stabilized but I don't expect a meaningful bounce until gas prices are firmly above $6 / MMBtu.
  • Caveat: There are lots of drilled but not completed wells in Texas (100s) so expect to see a slower decline as prices creep higher and these wells are quickly turned to sales.
• Louisiana: Hockey stick action - Haynesville Shale completions continue to impress.
  • At 7% U.S. production, this is one of the few growth drives at current prices.
  • Company after company plans to hike their well count by the beginning of 2010, regardless (or nearly so) of prices (from HK's mouth today) but CHK and others are looking to add rigs despite low prices to get acreage into HBP status.
• Other States production is plateauing.
• Wyoming - production took a dive, numbers are probably in part related to crude shut ins that occured over the summer as the Bakken play bumped up against capacity and weak gas prices in late Spring. This probably bounces back a bit later this year.
• New Mexico - trending lower.
• Oklahoma - Blame NFX and FST and host of others for following their Woodford Shale success with a non shale horizontal play in the Granite Wash.

Nutshell: The long awaited production declines are beginning to become more noticeable. As basis differentials shrink in various regions, it becomes clear that curtailments are not the only limiting factor in the recent smaller than expected.weekly storage data.

This is the second quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.

Next up is David Stemerman's hedge fund Conatus Capital. This is just the third time we've covered Conatus' portfolio because this is literally only its third 13F filing. It is obviously a newer fund, but its manager and analysts certainly have quite the pedigree. Conatus raised $2.3 billion and began trading last year after David Stemerman left Lone Pine Capital to start his own hedge fund. Conatus is an interesting story to follow because, as we all know, Stemerman's old employer, Lone Pine Capital, is a prominent 'Tiger Cub' hedge fund. And now many years later, Lone Pine is seeing its own progeny spin off their own funds. Matt Iorio also left Lone Pine to start his own firm, White Elm Capital, which we will also track for the first time in the coming days. We find it appropriate to track these two gentlemen because they are well-versed in the successful bottom-up 'Tiger' investing style and have contributed to Lone Pine's solid track record.

Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

August 5, 2009 9:00 am ET

• Bottlers get a pop from Pepsi deal. PepsiCo (PEP) reached a deal to buy its two largest bottlers, Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) and PepsiAmericas (PAS), for $7.8B, a 20% premium over its previous offers in April. PepsiCo will pay $36.50/share for Pepsi Bottling Group and $28.50/share for PepsiAmericas; the news sent Pepsi Bottling Group up 8.5% and PepsiAmericas up 9% in trading yesterday. PepsiCo says the purchases will speed the decision-making process and increase efficiencies.
• Sony's very cheap e-reader. Sony (SNE) is raising the stakes in its battle with Amazon (AMZN), introducing a new e-reader for $199, with a larger touchscreen version available for $299. The lower-priced e-reader will be the cheapest one sold in the U.S. as Sony looks to take a bigger share of the small but fast-growing market. The devices will go on sale in retail outlets like Best Buy and Wal-Mart, and Sony will also lower the prices it charges for downloads of best-sellers and new releases to bring its pricing largely in line with Amazon's.
• SEC ban could come in a flash. The SEC is considering a ban on flash trading to "eliminate the inequity that results from flash orders." Sen. Charles Schumer, who is strongly pushing for an end to flash trading, said SEC's Mary Schapiro assured him a ban is imminent. NYSE Euronext (NYX), which is the only one of the four major U.S. exchanges that doesn't use flash trading, hopes a ban will help it regain marketshare from fast-growing rival Direct Edge Holdings.
• More Microhoo details. As part of their search partnership, Microsoft (MSFT) will hire at least 400 Yahoo (YHOO) employees, affecting around 3% of Yahoo's workforce. According to a regulatory filing, Microsoft will also pay Yahoo $150M over three years to help cover Yahoo's costs in getting the partnership started. Yahoo's 88% revenue share could rise to 93% or drop to 83% in five years, depending on whether Microsoft terminates Yahoo's exclusivity for premium search advertising.
• GE settles civil suit. General Electric (GE) agreed to pay $50M to the SEC to settle civil fraud and other charges that its 2002 and 2003 financial statements misled investors. The SEC alleged that GE used improper accounting methods to raise earnings and avoid disappointing investors. GE neither admitted to nor denied the allegations.
• GMAC turns to Fed for money. Battered lender GMAC reported that its Q2 loss widened to $3.9B, with revenues falling 22% to $1.03B and loan loss provisions rising 50% from the year before to $1.16B. GMAC also confirmed it's in discussions with the Federal Reserve over $5.6B in new capital it needs to raise by November to satisfy the government's stress test requirements. Since the government has already invested $12.5B in GMAC, the lender is unlikely to find external investors willing to help with capital raising.
• Lloyds' loss. Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) reported a loss of £3.1B ($5.2B) in H1, in large part from its HBOS acquisition in January, but said loan loss provisions will come down 'significantly' in H2 and will continue to fall in 2010. The bank set aside £13.4B in H1 to cover bad loans vs. consensus of £11.3B. Shares +12% premarket (7:00 ET).
• GM position weakens on Opel bid. General Motors' opposition to Magna's (MGA) Opel bid is weakening, said German officials, and it will be up to Chancellor Angela Merkel to step in and remove any final obstacles holding up a deal. An agreement between the U.S., GM and Germany could be reached by the end of the week.
• Personal income falls. Personal income fell 1.3% in June as the effects of one-time stimulus checks wore off, marking the largest drop since January 2005 and a sharper decline than the expected -1%. Spending rose slightly more than expected, coming in at +0.4% vs. consensus of +0.3%. High unemployment, tight credit and falling home values contributed to the fall in personal incomes, and will continue to hurt consumer spending.
• MBA apps rise. Mortgage applications rose 4.4% from last week, MBA said. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 5.17% from 5.36%.
• Retail sales. Chain store sales fell 1.6% in the first four weeks of July, Redbook said, worse than the -0.9% expected. According to ICSC, weekly sales were down 0.2%, and 0.7% Y/Y. A later sales-tax holiday trimmed comparisons but should lift sales this coming week.
• Home sales rise. June Pending Home Sales increased +3.6% from May to 94.6, the fifth straight monthly gain. May's index was revised from 90.7 to 91.3. The last five-month streak was in July 2003. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun noted activity is much stronger for lower-priced homes.

Earnings: Wednesday Before Open

• Agrium (AGU): Q2 EPS of $2.35 beats by $0.54. Revenue of $4.1B (+6%) vs. $3.4B. (PR)
• Avnet (AVT): FQ4 EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $3.8B (-19.5%) vs. $3.7B. (PR)
• Baker Hughes (BHI): Q2 EPS of $0.41 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $2.3B (-22%) vs. $2.25B. Shares -0.9% premarket (6:40 ET). (PR)
• Boyd Gaming (BYD): Q2 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $423M (-8%) vs. $432M. (PR)
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP): Q2 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.7B (+63%) vs. $2.2B. (PR)
• Dean Foods (DF): Q2 EPS of $0.43 in-line. Revenue of $2.7B (-14%) vs. $2.8B. (PR)
• Devon Energy (DVN): Q2 EPS of $0.71 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $2.1B (-41%) vs. $1.9B. (PR)
• Fortress Investment (FIG): Q2 EPS of -$0.41 vs. consensus $0.07 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $117M (-29%) vs. $108M. Daniel Mudd becomes CEO effective August 11, 2009. (PR)
• Foster Wheeler (FWLT): Q2 EPS of $0.98 beats by $0.36. Revenue of $1.3B (-23%) vs. $1.4B. (PR)
• Garmin (GRMN): Q2 EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.32. Revenue of $669M (-27%) vs. $657M. (PR)
• Marsh & Mclennan Companies (MMC): Q2 EPS of $0.33 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.6B (-13%) vs. $2.8B. (PR)
• Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG): Q2 EPS of -$0.29 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $283M (-34%) vs. $260M. (PR)
• Owens Corning (OC): Q2 EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.40. Revenue of $1.2B (-23%) vs. $1.3B. (PR)
• PetroQuest Energy (PQ): Q2 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $55M (-40.5%) vs. $54M. (PR)
• Polo Ralph Lauren (RL): FQ1 EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.26. Revenue of $1B (-8%) in-line. Shares +1.7% premarket (8:20 ET). (PR)
• Procter & Gamble (PG): FQ4 EPS of $0.80 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $19B (-11%) in-line. (PR)
• Quanta Services (PWR): Q2 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $813M (-15%) vs. $861M. Issues downside Q3 EPS guidance $0.23-0.24 vs. $0.28 consensus; sees Q3 revenue of $840-870M vs. $1.04B consensus. (PR)
• Radian Group (RDN): Q2 EPS of $2.82 vs. consensus of -$1.58 (may not be comparable). Revenue of $577M (58%) vs. $284M. Shares +22% premarket (8:20 ET). (PR)
• R.R. Donnelley & Sons (RRD): Q2 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.4B (-19%) in-line. (PR)
• Transocean (RIG): Q2 EPS of $2.79 misses by $0.24. Revenue of $2.9B (-8%) in-line. Shares -5.4% premarket (7:50 ET). (PR)

Earnings: Tuesday After Close

• Avis Budget Group (CAR): Q2 EPS of -$0.06 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.3B (-17%) vs. $1.4B. (PR)
• BMC Software (BMC): FQ1 EPS of $0.59 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $450M (+3%) vs. $441M. Sees full-year EPS of $2.47-2.57 vs. $2.42. Shares +0.3% AH. (PR)
• Boston Beer Company (SAM): Q2 EPS of $0.83 beats by $0.21. Revenue of $118M (+1%) vs. $121M. (PR)
• BRE Properties (BRE): Q2 FFO of $0.70 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $86M (flat) vs. $81M. Shares +8.6% AH. (PR)
• CBL & Associates Properties (CBL): Q2 FFO of $0.71 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $267M (-2%) vs. $256M. (PR)
• Central European Distribution (CEDC): Q2 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $362M (-14%) vs. $338M. Shares +2.7% AH. (PR)
• Cephalon (CEPH): Q2 EPS of $1.44 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $539M (+11%) vs. $541M. Sees full-year EPS of $6.30-$6.40 vs. $5.64. Shares -3.8% AH. (PR)
• Coinstar (CSTR): Q2 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $314M (+43%) vs. $305M. Sees full-year EPS of $0.80-0.86 vs. $0.77. Shares +3% AH. (PR)
• Ctrip.com (CTRP): Q2 EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $70M (+27%) vs. $65M. (PR)
• Denny's (DENN): Q2 EPS of $0.09 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $156M (-18%) in-line. Shares -1.6% AH. (PR)
• Electronic Arts (ERTS): FQ1 EPS of -$0.02 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $816M (+34%) vs. $730M. Sees full-year EPS of $1.00 vs. $0.97. Shares +3.7% AH. (PR)
• Exco Resources (XCO): Q2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $288M (-15%) vs. $270M. (PR)
• Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT): Q2 FFO of $0.97 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $130M (+1%) vs. $131M. Sees full-year FFO of $3.82-3.87 vs. $3.50. (PR)
• GT Solar (SOLR): FQ1 EPS of $0.05 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $72M (+26%) vs. $86M. Shares -0.2% AH. (PR)
• HealthSouth (HLS): Q2 EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $484M (+6%) vs. $472M. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $1.15-1.25 from $0.85-0.90 vs. $1.05. Shares +3.5% AH. (PR)
• Jack in the Box (JACK): FQ3 EPS of $0.57 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $576M (-3%) vs. $585M. Q3 same-store sales down 1%. Shares -0.8% AH. (PR)
• Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL): Q2 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $576M (-13%) vs. $582M. (PR)
• Kraft (KFT): Q2 EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $10.2B (-6%) vs. $10.4B. Shares -0.9% AH. (PR)
• Papa John's International (PZZA): Q2 EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $277M (-2%) vs. $273M. Sees full-year EPS of $1.38-1.44 vs. $1.47. Shares -2% AH. (PR)
• Petrohawk Energy (HK): Q2 EPS of $0.10 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $227M (-25%) vs. $258M. Shares -5.7% AH. (PR)
• Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD): Q2 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $371M (-42%) vs. $376M. (PR)
• Protective Life (PL): Q2 EPS of $1.16 beats by $0.39. Revenue of $726M vs. $732M. Shares -1.8% AH. (PR)
• Sotheby's (BID): Q2 EPS of $0.18 misses by $0.10. Revenue of $167M (-48%) vs. $153M. (PR)
• Tessera Technologies (TSRA): Q2 EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.23. Revenue of $62M (+11%) vs. $60M. Shares +3.3% AH. (PR)
• UDR Inc. (UDR): Q2 FFO of $0.35 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $152M (+9%) vs. $148M. Sees full-year FFO of $1.23-1.35 vs. $1.22. Shares +0.1% AH. (PR)
• Unum Group (UNM): Q2 EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $2.6B (-2%) vs. $2.5B. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $2.50-2.60 vs. $2.48. (PR)
• ValueClick (VCLK): Q2 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $130M (-18%) vs. $128M. Sees Q3 EPS of $0.19-0.20 vs. $0.15. Shares +1% AH. (PR)
• Whole Foods Market (WFMI): FQ3 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.9B (+2%) in-line. Same-store sales down 1.1% in first four weeks of new quarter. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.16-0.18 vs. $0.14. Sees full-year EPS $0.80-0.82 vs. $0.75. Shares +7.7% AH. (PR)
• Yamana Gold (AUY): Q2 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $270M vs. $299M. Shares +1.4% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Asian markets closed mostly down, European markets are showing small gains and U.S. futures are sending no clear signals.

This is the 1st Quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings series preface.

Next up is David Stemerman's Conatus Capital. This is only the second time we've covered Conatus and is a new addition to the group of funds we cover. Conatus filed its first 13F ever in our last tracking series and so we finally get to see what it's been up to comparatively speaking. David Stemerman left Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital to run his own fund, as we noted here. The result is Conatus Capital which raised $2.3 billion and started trading last year. Numerous other prominent funds have seen managers leave to start their own funds and we're also monitoring those as well.

As posted in my blog, historically oil and gas both peak in the summer months. As we can see from last year's chart, oil peaked in mid July.

Whenever someone mentions the idea of an economic recovery, I immediately start thinking about what would happen if natural gas rose back towards late 2007 and early 2008 levels. This won’t happen in the near term as it is anticipated that we will be in a weak hurricane season and there are still a few more shoes to drop in the economy. However, long term energy demand predictions and the loose fiscal and monetary policy of the United States have paved the way for another energy bull-run.

Natural gas is currently trading around $3.70. With the forward curve looking at price closer to $5.70 by the end of this year, there is no better time to get in than now if you have faith in the commodity over the long term.

This is the 1st Quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings series preface.

Next up, we have John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Now, Griffin is similar to Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global and Stephen Mandel at Lone Pine Capital in that they are all 'Tiger Cubs' (pupils of Julian Robertson during their time at Tiger Management). Griffin though, is more well-known because he was Julian Robertson's right hand man. So needless to say, he knows his stuff.

Bullish Calls:

BP (BP): "BP's got a great yield. I think it's safe. As long as oil is staying around $50, that yield will be safe."

Q1 2009 Earnings Call

May 06, 2009 10:30 AM ET

• BoA's growing capital shortfall. Bank of America (BAC) reportedly needs around $34B in new capital, significantly more than the $5-10B shortfall expected for Citigroup (C), while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) apparently won't need more capital at all. Last month, CEO Ken Lewis told analysts "we absolutely don't think we need additional capital," but the bank is now considering selling part of its stake in China Construction Bank immediately to raise around $8B. Since the size of the shortfall could exceed what the bank can raise through asset sales or a public share offering, Bank of America could potentially be left with no choice but to convert the government's preferred shares into common stock. For its part, Citigroup is trying to accelerate a brokerage venture with Morgan Stanley (MS) to lock in a $5.8B gain. BAC -11.2%, C -1.8% premarket (7:00 ET).
• Basel may call for larger bank reserves. Independent of the U.S. stress tests, banks worldwide may be asked to raise minimum capital reserves by several percentage points to better position themselves for the next financial crisis. Nout Wellink, chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, believes current requirements are 'still not enough' and said the Basel proposal may be completed in the first half of next year.
• TARP exit guide. U.S. officials will soon lay out guidelines for how banks can repay TARP funds. One key condition will likely be that banks must be able to participate in credit markets without the help of government facilities, such as the FDIC's debt guarantee program. Other repayment conditions are still unclear, as Geithner previously said repayment policies must take into account "the soundness of the entire financial sector." An announcement could come as soon as today.
• Bernanke is cautiously hopeful. Speaking before Congress, Bernanke said he expects "economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year... Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while..." He made a cautious prediction of 2% GDP growth in 2010 and 4% in 2011, under the assumption that financial markets stabilize and strengthen. On the issue of Bank of America's (BAC) silence over its Merrill Lynch acquisition, Bernanke said he "absolutely did not in any way ask Mr. [Ken] Lewis to obscure any disclosures or fail to report information he should be reporting." (Read Bernanke's prepared testimony)
• Chrysler bankruptcy plan approved. A bankruptcy court approved Chrysler's plan to auction most of its assets by May 27 with an offer from Fiat as the lead bid. The judge also approved a $35M breakup fee for Fiat if it's outbid. However, the judge rejected a claim by Chrysler's lenders that their safety was at risk because of anger over the bankruptcy. The lenders, who had requested secrecy, must reveal their identities today.
• GM's shareholders wipe-out. General Motors (GM) detailed plans to issue up to 60B new shares in a bid to pay off debt to the government, bondholders and UAW union. The move would essentially wipe out the holdings of remaining shareholders, leaving them with just 1% of the equity in a restructured automaker. The unusual plan would need only the approval of the Treasury to proceed, since the government would be the majority shareholder of the new GM. Shares -17.3% premarket (7:00 ET).
• Fed eyes derivatives regulation. For the first time, the Federal Reserve signaled it plans to break Wall Street's hold over the $684T over-the-counter derivatives market and to increase the market's regulation and transparency. Theo Lubke, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York official responsible for oversight of the market, called it 'simply unacceptable' that the OTC derivatives market 'can be controlled by a handful of large dealers,' and said the lack of transparency 'is not something that can continue.'
• SEC gets more aggressive. The SEC accused the father-and-son team that managed the Reserve Primary Fund of securities fraud, alleging the two had lied to investors, the fund's board and rating agencies after the flagship fund 'broke the buck' last fall. The civil lawsuit also seeks an order to distribute the fund's remaining $62B of assets to investors. Separately, the SEC brought its first-ever case alleging insider trading in credit default swaps.
• Aid recipients gained from subprime lenders. A newly released study revealed that 21 of the 25 largest subprime lenders were owned or financially supported by Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and other lenders that received U.S. aid. The watchdog group that released the report said it showed "mega-banks that funded the subprime industry were not victims of an unforeseen financial collapse, as they have sometimes portrayed themselves. These banks were deliberate enablers that bankrolled the type of lending that’s now threatening the financial system."
• Boston Globe reaches union deal. The Boston Globe (NYT) reportedly reached a tentative deal with its largest union early this morning, with the union agreeing to a substantial pay cut, unpaid furloughs, and modifications to the lifetime job guarantee provisions that cover nearly 200 employees. The Globe now has the $20M in concessions its parent company demanded a month ago. Details of the negotiations will be released tomorrow.
• Wal-Mart expands in China. Wal-Mart (WMT) said it launched a pilot program to open convenience stores in China, hoping to boost its presence in the fast-growing retail market. The company opened three convenience stores in a south China city in December and will analyze market acceptance and customer preferences before deciding on future plans.
• Europe retail sales plunge. Euro-area retail sales suffered their largest drop on record in March, falling 4.2% from a year ago, worse than the -2.6% expected. Economists say growing unemployment is crimping spending, and consumer confidence remains near record lows. "This adds to other signs that the recession is still in full swing in the euro zone," economist Jennifer McKeown said. "It is difficult to be very optimistic about the future."
• More underwater mortgages. U.S. home values continued to fall in Q1, and nearly 22% of homeowners are now underwater on their mortgages. Real estate website Zillow.com reported home values fell 14.2% Y/Y, leading to a $704B drop in value in Q1.
• Retail sales. Retail chain store sales rose 0.7% from a week ago, ICSC said, and fell 0.8% Y/Y. Sales got a lift from drug stores, department stores, discounters, wholesale clubs, electronic stores and office supply. According to Redbook, chain store sales rose 0.3% in the first four weeks of April, and rose 0.5% Y/Y.
• Non-mfg contraction moderates. Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in April, registering 43.7% on the ISM Index vs. March's 40.8%. This is the seventh month in a row of contraction, though the contraction was at a more moderate pace.
• Mortgage apps rise. Mortgage applications rose 2% from a week ago, MBA said. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages inched up to 4.79% from 4.62%.

Earnings: Wednesday Before Open

• Agrium (AGU): Q1 EPS of $0.04 misses by $0.20. Revenue of $1.75B (+58.4%) vs. $1.2B. Issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $2.00-2.40 vs. $2.77 consensus. (PR)
• American Capital (ACAS): Q1 EPS of $0.31 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $195M (-33.2%) vs. $186M. (PR)
• Aqua America (WTR): Q1 EPS of $0.14 in-line. Revenue of $154.5M (+10.9%) vs. $151M. (PR)
• The Blackstone Group (BX): Q1 EPS of -$0.07 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $47M (-31.2%) vs. $64M. Shares +2.2% premarket (8:00 ET). (PR)
• Boyd Gaming (BYD): Q1 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $435M (-7.7%) in-line. Shares +3.9% premarket (7:10 ET). (PR)
• Devon Energy (DVN): Q1 EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $2.0B (-31.8%) vs. $1.8B. (PR)
• Diana Shipping (DSX): Q1 EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $63M (-20.5%) vs. $61M. (PR)
• Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG): Q1 EPS of -$0.71 misses by $0.66. Revenue of $122M (-39.1%) vs. $87M. Shares +10.5% premarket (7:20 ET). (PR)
• Foster Wheeler (FWLT): Q1 EPS of $0.59 misses by $0.09. Revenue of $1.3B (-29.6%) vs. $1.5B. (PR)
• Garmin (GRMN): Q1 EPS of $0.25 misses by $0.17. Revenue of $437M (-34.2%) vs. $532M. Shares -1.8% premarket (7:20 ET). (PR)
• Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC): Q1 EPS of $0.42 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $2.6B (-13.5%) vs. $2.9B. (PR)
• Petrohawk Energy (HK): Q1 EPS of $0.02 in-line. Revenue of $263.5M (+22.6%) vs. $247M. (PR)
• Quanta Services (PWR): Q1 EPS of $0.11 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $738.5M (-12.5%) vs. $796M. Issues downside EPS guidance for Q2 of $0.14-0.15 vs. $0.22 consensus, sees Q2 revenue of $850-890M. (PR)
• Quicksilver Resources (KWK): Q1 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $186M (+18%) vs. $184M. (PR)
• R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company (RRD): Q1 EPS of $0.24 misses by $0.14. Revenue of $2.46B (-18.1%) vs. $2.47B. (PR)
• Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH): Q1 EPS of $0.44 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $69M (+38.4%) vs. $67M. (PR)
• TETRA Technologies (TTI): Q1 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $195M (-13.3%) vs. $198M. Shares +1.7% premarket (7:45 ET). (PR)
• Transocean (RIG): Q1 EPS of $3.75 beats by $0.24. Revenue of $3.1B (+0.3%) in-line. (PR)
• Western Refining (WNR): Q1 EPS of $0.86 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.4B (-46.4%) vs. $3.0B. (PR)

Earnings: Tuesday After Close

• American Capital Strategies (ACAS): Q1 EPS of $0.31 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $195M (-33.2%) vs. $186M. (PR)
• ArvinMeritor (ARM): FQ2 EPS of -$0.12 vs. consensus of -$0.68. Revenue of $1.1B (-38.2%) vs. $1.24B. Total exposure to Chrysler: $7M. +10.4% AH. (PR)
• Atmel (ATML): Q1 EPS of $0.04 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $271.5M (-34%) vs. $289M. Sees Q2 revenue growth of 1-4% sequentially. Shares -3.4% AH. (PR)
• Centex (CTX): FQ4 EPS of -$3.26 vs. consensus of -$1.27. Revenue of $823M (-64.4%) vs. $895M. Shares -3.5% AH. (PR)
• Charles River Laboratories International (CRL): Q1 EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $301M (-10.7%) in-line. Shares +8.4% AH. (PR)
• Cephalon (CEPH): Q1 EPS of $1.47 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $520M (+17.3%) vs. $533M. Shares -2.9% AH. (PR)
• Disney (DIS): FQ2 EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $8.09B (-7.2%) in-line. "We had a difficult second quarter due to the weak economy and other factors... At the same time, we remain focused on our core business strategy and believe our creativity, brands and businesses will serve us well as the economy recovers." Shares +4.1% AH. (PR)
• Electronic Arts (ERTS): FQ4 EPS of -$0.37 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $609M (-33.7%) vs. $632M. Reaffirms full-year guidance. Shares -3.3% AH. (PR)
• Exco Resources (XCO): Q1 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $189M (-43.1%) vs. $279M. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• Harris (HRS): FQ3 EPS of $1.02 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.36B (+2.4%) vs. $1.21B. Sees 2010 full-year EPS of $3.10-3.40 vs. $3.92. Shares -8.3% AH. (PR)
• HCC Insurance (HCC): Q1 EPS of $0.73 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $601M vs. $587M. (PR)
• Helix Energy Solutions (HLX): Q1 EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.35. Revenue of $571M (+29.2%) vs. $463M. Shares +9.9% AH. (PR)
• Kinross Gold (KGC): Q1 EPS of $0.11 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $533M (+61.3%) vs. $492M. Margin per ounce of gold a best ever $478. Shares -0.7% AH. (PR)
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS): Q1 EPS of $0.01 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $1.08B (+0%) in-line. Shares -3.9% AH. (PR)
• Lincoln National (LNC): Q1 EPS of $0.66 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $2.25B (-13.4%) vs. $2.54B. Shares +5.5% AH. (PR)
• Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD): Q1 EPS of -$0.13 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $484M (-17.3%) vs. $349M. (PR)
• Pitney Bowes (PBI): Q1 EPS of $0.55 misses by $0.08. Revenue of $1.38B (-12.3%) vs. $1.47B. Sees full-year EPS of $2.40-2.60 vs. $2.63. Shares -5% AH. (PR)
• Stone Energy (SGY): Q1 EPS of -$0.20 misses by $1.00. Revenue of $134M (-11.3%) vs. $132M. Shares -11% AH. (PR)
• TheStreet.com (TSCM): Q1 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $90.3M (-25.9%) vs. $90.9M. Shares -0.4% AH. (PR)
• Titanium Metals (TIE): Q1 EPS of $0.11 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $203M (-30.7%) vs. $239M. Shares flat AH. (PR)
• True Religion Apparel (TRLG): Q1 EPS of $0.32 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $63.6M (+19.1%) vs. $58.7M. Reaffirms full-year guidance. Shares +6.7% AH. (PR)
• UDR Inc. (UDR): Q1 FFO of $0.37 beats by $0.04. Sees full-year FFO in-line with consensus. Shares +7.8% AH. (PR)
• ValueClick (VCLK): Q1 EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $135M (-20.2%) vs. $130M. Shares +4.4% AH. (PR)
• Yamana Gold (AUY): Q1 EPS of $0.12 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $224 vs consensus of $231. Shares +2.4% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Asia markets were higher Tuesday. In Europe, stocks are up modestly. Futures are in the red, and sit in the middle of their overnight range.

Energy earnings start each season with the release of Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) today. As every seasoned investors knows, energy stocks are one of the most volatile sectors to play when companies release their quarterly results. Oftentimes, it is a question of tracking how crude oil and natural gas preformed during the quarter in order to determine how the earnings season will treat the energy names, but this time around I believe there will be a lot of money to be made with counter-intuitive thinking. Before getting into that, it is important to track where we have been during the course of the quarter.

Believe it or not, crude oil actually rebounded slightly during the first quarter of 2009 rising from $44.60 to $49.66 for a gain of 11.34%. Oil strength was mostly due to a rebound across all asset classes, especially after oil had dropped more than 70% from its July 2008 highs.

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up is John Burbank's Passport Capital. This is the first time we've covered Passport's filings, so let's get to some quick background.

The seven-year low in natural gas prices is possibly the opportunity of a lifetime. The decline has been attributed to several occurences:

1. A significant decrease in demand from the industrial sector

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up is Touradji Capital ran by Paul Touradji. Touradji is one of many well-known 'Tiger Cubs' who started their own firms after leaving Julian Robertson's Tiger Management. We've already covered many of the 'Tiger Cub' funds including Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global, Chris Shumway's Shumway Capital Partners, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital.