Sat, Jan. 17, 8:25 AM
- Cowen analysts this week offered a how-to guide for playing the oil price fluctuation, identifying more than 60 stocks that could benefit in a declining oil price environment.
- Among the various nuggets of wisdom, the report notes that given the minimal contribution of petroleum to U.S. electricity generation, there is little, if any, displacement of coal burn; within the coal sector, lower crude prices mean lower diesel fuel prices, which Cowen thinks favors the operating cost structure of surface mining producers in the Powder River Basin, particularly Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) given its diesel hedge strategy which protects it from elevated diesel levels and enables it to benefit fully in the downside of fuel costs.
- Also best able to cope with falling oil prices: ARLP, CLD, CNX, FELP, HNRG, JEC.
- Among airlines, American (NASDAQ:AAL) should not suffer the cost headwinds related to mark-to-market hedge losses, unlike peers that hedge jet fuel; Delta (NYSE:DAL) can expect a $2B hedge-related loss, Southwest (NYSE:LUV) should see a $500M loss and United (NYSE:UAL) a $200M loss.
- Cowen thinks consumers are on pace for 2015 gas savings of $100B-$150B, but the upside will not be distributed equally among retailers; the firm sees broadline retailers, namely Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Target (NYSE:TGT), as best positioned to benefit from gas deflation.
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- Hallador Energy's (HNRG) Sunrise Coal subsidiary agrees to acquire Vectren's (VVC) coal mining unit for $296M plus additional working capital adjustments, not to exceed a total of $325M.
- Vectren Fuels owns three underground coal mines in Indiana which have sold 10.1M tons of coal in the past 12 months; current 2015 coal sales commitments are 9.5M tons.
- VVC says the transaction will result in a Q2 book loss of $0.24-$0.26 per share.
Nov. 20, 2012, 12:45 PM
Oct. 9, 2012, 11:37 AMHallador Energy (HNRG +8.5%) is initiated with a Buy rating at Brean Murray, which sees the pure‐play Illinois Basin coal producer gaining on several favorable fundamental drivers. HNRG is "structurally well positioned in one of the most attractive domestic thermal coal basins, has lower costs than its peers, and trades at a more compelling valuation," the firm says. | 1 Comment
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