Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

All Comments on HOG

  • commenter
    joyful
    alternative
    Jul 20 01:20 PM
    My Website
    Harley Davidson Reducing Dealer Inventories - A Positive Sign [view article]
    Early every Sunday morning the Harley dealership down the road has maybe a dozen people in helmets in the parking lot. They appear to be taking riding lessons. Reply
  • commenter
    ez rider (I
    wish)
    Jul 20 11:10 AM
    My Website
    Harley Davidson Reducing Dealer Inventories - A Positive Sign [view article]
    I think of the Harley business in terms of my memories of it from the 60s and 70s, when, in fact, it is much larger, more conservative and "big business" than I could have imagined.

    I looked into buying a Harley Franchise - as it seemed to embody everything I longed for from my youth, and looked like a job I'd enjoy getting up in the morning for . . .

    Not to happen. They have gotten too big, too corporate and highly profit driven. Not that that is a bad thing . . . it just doesn't encourage independent franchise owners . . . .

    I do have the stock, (which I believe in even more now!) and am considering my first bike at 56.

    Women on Harleys has become a good niche for them . . .     Reply
  • commenter
    BlueOkie
    Jul 20 08:20 AM
    Harley Davidson Reducing Dealer Inventories - A Positive Sign [view article]
    If you can afford a HOG $5 gas wouldn't bother you! In fact, you can justify your purchase with gas savings. Reply
  • commenter
    Richard Neva
    Jul 20 08:13 AM
    Harley Davidson Reducing Dealer Inventories - A Positive Sign [view article]
    I have a Vespa and I can't afford to ride that. It needs new tires and it does run on gasoline which I need to cut my weeded lawn very infrequently! Reply
  • commenter
    David Tsao
    Jul 19 01:30 AM
    My Website
    Harley's Beat: Was High Crude the Buffer? [view article]
    ronh,

    although Europe's auto business is showing weakness, moto's are a way of life over there. Have you ever hit any of the cities in Italy? People willing to shell out premiums for a Harley, will distinguish themselves from the Piaggio loving public over there. The same goes for India, where it's all about dinky Hero Honda bikes. I asked a fellow coworker when I was there last year if he would ride a Harley around the streets of Mumbai... "fantastic" is the word he used. Affording one is a different story, but in time things should look good for Harley in emerging markets.

    There is a good story the Chicago Tribune ran about Hog's versus Royal Enfields in India. An interesting read.

    www.chicagotribune.com...
     Reply
  • commenter
    David Tsao
    Jul 19 01:21 AM
    My Website
    Harley's Beat: Was High Crude the Buffer? [view article]
    I would tend to agree with Mallarde, but still picked up HOG a few weeks ago. Harley's aren't about function, they're about image and style. Higher gas prices, makes looking good and feeling good more costly.

    I still bought HOG because they will turn around when the economy turns around. It's not often you can buy a classic piece of Americana at this price.
     Reply
  • commenter
    User 218405
    Jul 18 11:48 PM
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    Where do you find what the price of oil closed at? Reply
  • commenter
    ronh
    Jul 18 04:45 PM
    Harley's Beat: Was High Crude the Buffer? [view article]
    also worth noting with respect to the overseas sales, that currency exchange added about 40M to their earnings this quarter. I am not sure that is sustainable. The dollar has strengthened somewhat recently, and the European market has shown weakness in the auto business.. Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jul 18 01:22 PM
    Harley's Beat: Was High Crude the Buffer? [view article]
    Todd is correct on one thing -- the double-digit growth overseas must continue.

    He is completely wrong that people trying to pinch pennies will buy a HOG. Todd, do you live in Wisconsin, or something? People trying to save money don't buy $20K motos. They usually by scooters or KLRs or beat-up Viragos.

    Also, how many HOG buyers use their bikes to go to the grocery store/work, and how many use them to putz around on Sunday? Or take a trip across the country? Most use them for recreation -- which means expensive gas makes their recreation even more expensive than just the HOG they sit on.

    Would expensive gas make an high-mpg yacht more marketable? OK, I have shouted myself out on this issue.

    HOG's weakness in its domestic market is deadly. Expensive oil will not save it, but hurt it.     Reply
  • commenter
    ronh
    Jul 18 11:31 AM
    Harley's Beat: Was High Crude the Buffer? [view article]
    while the results certainly appear to be good at first glance, a closer look reveals some much bigger issues.
    1. their inability to sell the financing paper has meant that they are financing the majority of their bikes and taking back the paper on to their balance sheet. They are holding 3.8B of finance receivables on their balance sheet, and increase of 600M qoq.
    2. The default rate on that paper, according to the cc was about 5%, and the ltv is very high (quite a bit of no down payment financing). They are at risk for large write offs down the road if the resale value of the bikes doesn't hold up and if their default rate spike at all. Big bikes are a luxury item for most people, and the default rates and resale value of the boat market would indicate that their are major risks in this regard for HOG.

    HOG's balance sheet now has 3.8B of total financing receivables for bikes, not including their inventory financing to dealers, on total assets of 6.8B.

    Investors in HOG need to appreciate that they are buying a finance company as well as a motorcycle company.     Reply
  • commenter
    ajhough
    Jul 18 10:01 AM
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    The rich are different from you and me! Reply
  • commenter
    sharksm
    Jul 18 09:07 AM
    My Website
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    How come foreigners can keep assets here and not be taxed on interest, capital gains, estates etc., but American's who do the same overseas are criminals? I guess we are against illegal immigration unless they are rich! Reply
  • commenter
    Right in
    San
    Francisco
    Jul 18 09:03 AM
    My Website
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    An interesting juxtaposition of articles:
    1. New rules against naked short selling by traders who are trying to bring down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and with them the entire home mortgage industry in the name of creative destruction, er. profit.
    2. One of the great Swiss banks has been helping US clients illegally avoid some $17 billion in taxes. I'm not sure what the UBS PR office has to say, other than that they will stop taking such clients in the US.
    There are a few changes that we can believe in.     Reply
  • commenter
    A.S.D.
    Jul 17 05:34 PM
    Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
    Any comments on Banro (BAA)?? Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jul 17 03:48 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Lots of good feelings about HOG. I am a little surprised that their domestic sales held up. Questions my mind are are the international sales increasing as fast as they thought and is there any channel-stuffing going on.

    Have not listened to the conference call.     Reply
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