Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

All Comments on HOG

  • commenter
    Kinchip
    Jul 06 02:10 AM
    General Discussion on HOG
    I have to believe that sales will plummet with the loss of HOLOC's and with HD Financial unable to offload it's worsening CDO Loans. HD Financial does the financing for 50% of all sales. No, I think that this will be another major downside surprise as investors come to realize that a Harley is a luxury with demand ins steep decline, not a fuel-efficient alternative to a car. Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jul 03 05:49 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Yes, it is always a question how plugged up the channel is. Channel-stuffing in the dealerships has been a practice with HOG -- a practice they claim they are ending.

    If they really want to hide slowing sales, they could take advantage of the large size of the dealerships. For example, my local HOG dealership has huge ceilings -- maybe 30-feet high. They could easily add an extra floor in the building, double their inventory and not increase their motorcycle per square foot ratio. (Hehe.)


    On Jul 02 07:24 PM FUJIMO wrote:

    > Mallarde. one unit = one motorcycle ,so in the Europe market ten
    > thousand one hundred fourty nine bikes were shipped to dealers in
    > the first QTR . How many have been sold by the dealers at this time
    > I don't know.     Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jul 02 07:24 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Mallarde. one unit = one motorcycle ,so in the Europe market ten thousand one hundred fourty nine bikes were shipped to dealers in the first QTR . How many have been sold by the dealers at this time I don't know. Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jul 02 03:02 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    What units are those in? Percentages? Or millions? No way billions.

    I always think of Levi's, for some reason, when I think of Harley selling overseas. They are selling a classic American brand, not a vehicle. It's a symbol of freedom and capitalism. It is also priced at a premium.


    On Jul 02 02:22 PM FUJIMO wrote:

    > Mallarde. I found some No's. HOG Europe region includes Europe, Africa
    > and the middle east.
    >
    > Europe sales first Qtr 2008 = 9.075 others 1.074 total 10.149 <br/>
    >
    > Asian market 1st Qtr sales = 5.300 total.
    >
    > Latin American region 1st Qtr = 1.857 total
    >
    > I find it very interesting on your view of Russia and China. Food
    > for thought
    >
    > I'am still very skeptical of lobbyist and the green back.
    >
    > later, back to business     Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jul 02 02:22 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Mallarde. I found some No's. HOG Europe region includes Europe, Africa and the middle east.

    Europe sales first Qtr 2008 = 9.075 others 1.074 total 10.149

    Asian market 1st Qtr sales = 5.300 total.

    Latin American region 1st Qtr = 1.857 total

    I find it very interesting on your view of Russia and China. Food for thought

    I'am still very skeptical of lobbyist and the green back.

    later, back to business     Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jul 02 12:47 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Fujimo, it was a small gesture by the Congressman (can't recall which one). I doubt HOG bribed him. It would be very easy for a Congressman that has no power to change anything to ask India to change its policy.

    I do have question in my mind about the foreign market, even though I understand your "novelty" statement. In Europe and Japan, I think HOG has tough going. But in places where Americana is big -- China, Russia, etc. -- I could see HOG selling bikes to the new class of capitalists that want to show their wealth. That is an interesting market for them.

    I do not think they could have achieved that much in the last quarter though in terms of overseas markets.

    As for Buell, a guy in my building had one. Man, the fit and finish on that was not good. I told the owner (who did not like it) that it looked like a lawnmower.     Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jul 02 11:34 AM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Mallarde. I was just dragging my chain to see if any one would pick it up . You are on the ball.

    Europeans are real motorcyclest [not bikers-posers] that know the real value of a motorcycle with agility and performance. To own a HD would only be a novelty, gee that sounds familier. ha. You don't think that some one in the UK would by a HD because there
    father had one do you.

    Somehere I have the export No's , I'll look for it. It is not earth shaking.

    I picked up on some of the manipulations that put HD into the India market and all for short No's in sales. [It had something to do with a fruit and a hog exchange] Typical political and media manipulation has been the standard for years and there are those who buy into it.

    Do you think that there is a politicion with some extra cash in thier pocket?     Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jul 01 04:22 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Euro market? What % is Euro market? If the U.S. market is as ugly as the automakers, and I think it could be, it seems really unlikely that the overseas market can pick-up the slack. As for the Buell, I like the founder of Buell, but that bike is so remarkably ugly that to compare it to a Ducati or anything Euro is a stretch.

    I take HOG's stunt of having their Congressman beg India to lower tariffs as a negative sign. To me, this shows desperation because nothing happened. They literally were begging. Sort of like Bush going to Saudi Arabia and begging them to increase production.     Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jun 30 09:12 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Build it and we will buy it is what we hear from bikers when a motorcycle manufacturer builds a prototype. Truth is, US buyers talk but don't buy when the time comes. This is why many of those prototypes end up across the pond .Japanese manufactuers found this out the hard way years ago.

    Point being, the Euro market may be HD'S Savior and on a Sportster or the new 1125 Buell not a cruiser. Not too many people in Europe get caught up in the fact that two guys in an old shed built a motorcycle like Apple Computers did and many other original builders of bikes or whatever. HD has put updated motorcycles in front of HD riders in the US and they go ignored, Buell 1125 AND V-Rod.

    So untill the dollar comes back the Euro market looks good.


    Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jun 27 02:54 AM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Fujimo, you are the man. This stock might be like the fashion stocks I have sometimes watched in awe. You can almost sense that (for example) Tommy Hilfiger is going out of style. 6 mos later, the plumped up TH stock -- after TH has opened up 1,000 shopping mall outlets -- slams into a wall.

    Yes, HOG does not own the dealerships, but the same swing in trends can happen here. I think this brand has seen its day in the sun. It should hibernate for 10 years, start focusing on appealing to the next generation of riders and come up with something new.

    This quarter's results should be really fascinating. Maybe they pulled it off with international sales, but it would be impressive.     Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jun 26 05:47 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Several weeks back I was at a little area close to were I live. A roundabout surrounded By high end shops and curb parking. Laced with many tourist . So here sits three harleys with all there little lights on [greens, blues,reds] reflecting off all the added chrome and the owners sitting close by at a table drinking there coffe next to the bikes was a car then a new Victory vision.[like it or not]. There were several people taking photos of family and friends next to the bike. When they finished they passed in front of the harley dudes and one of the dudes commented to the lady with the camera that she can take photos with there bikes. The lady responded that she doesn't like psuedo macho posers and in a response the biker dude said ,I don't get it and she replied neither do I. Needles to say it made my night. Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Jun 26 04:33 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    So let's see how many U.S. wage earners dropped $20K to buy an enormous, showpiece motorcycle that gets mediocre gas mileage in the second quarter. Could we have a nose dive? Drumrolls! Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jun 26 04:13 PM
    Icahn Trades - Cramer's Mad Money (6/9/08) [view article]
    So i am all google eyed watching Cramers TV program just trying to figure out what makes this man tick. One of his callers asked Cramer what his opinion is on the callers diversified stocks a total of five as I remember. As I recall Apple,Ford ,HD, plus two others. In Cramers frantic fashion he circles a couple stocks to keep ,then go's to the two transportation stocks if you will. HD and Ford. putting a big X on Ford at six bucks And a [iffy] circle around HD at $36. then makes a small quote that he doesn't understand why HD is not moving because of fuel prices. Let me do my first grade or pre school math . I came up with the Idea that I would rather have 200 slices of Ford over HD. At this point in time. I'am not being condesending but Cramer and most people in the USA would not know the differance from a Kawasaki Vulcan, Harley or a Yamha Star if the logos were removed. The fact that most people don't follow the movement of the motorcyles and what is on the highway. To think that people are going to run out and buy a 700 lb motorcyle to save fuel is totaly absurd. So back to the math What are people going to buy a scooter that is less than 5 grand 300 lb and automatic or a 700 lb bike that most people would be scared to death just to activate the clutch. Good luck to all because we are in tough times. Be wise. Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jun 25 01:46 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    So many tempting buys but my GPS is broke and have no idea which way to go. Reply
  • commenter
    bryanc
    Jun 18 05:33 PM
    Icahn Trades - Cramer's Mad Money (6/9/08) [view article]
    I don't think Harley will benefit from a "scooter" craze, because the only thing they really have in that area as far as cost/displacement is the Buell Blast.

    But, there are a lot of people who will turn to motorcycling as a way to save money. HOG might benefit from a lot of people buying motorcycles to save $$$, and they could buy HD as an option if they are interested in a bike that maintains its resale value a little better. So Sportster sales may spike.

    Sure, there are a lot of people who wil buy scooters, but there are far more who would not buy a scooter because a) it may be too small b) they want something that can run at true highway speed c) they have a longer commute.

    So don;t discount HOG just because they do not sell scooters. Still, my bet would be on HONDA for this one -- cheaper bikes, very reliable, and plenty of scooters available.     Reply
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