Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

All Comments on HOG

  • commenter
    StupidityAnd
    Greed
    Aug 11 03:56 PM
    Have We Reached the Turning Point? [view article]
    Oops I take that back. I didn't realize the headline was sarcastic. Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Aug 11 01:48 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    HDDEALER.
    How many days accumulate before a dealer starts paying on there floor plan and is the plan flexible?.

    If you would how doe's the Euro market affect your market ?

    I find this interesting. It was stated by HD that the reason they bought MV Agusta was to penetrate the Euro market because the average buyer is much younger and sport bike oriented .I'm assuming that there cruiser market is close to being saturated,
    If the repo bikes are bringing such a high dollar then the dealer should be able to undercut on a zero mile new bike,correct?


    I'am assumming that a repo auction is the same in every state where as the unit has to be on hold and notice to the public for sale X amount of days before public auction and at time of sale a sizeable non refundable deposit is required. If a buyer has good credit plus the cash for deposit then why would you buy a used bike at 128%over book.
    Please bring us up to date with a good reply. Thanks and good luck.
    Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Aug 11 01:37 PM
    Harley Davidson Financing Leading the Pack [view article]
    HDDEALER.
    How many days accumulate before a dealer starts paying on there floor plan and is the plan flexible?.
    If you would how doe's the Euro market affect your market ?
    I find this interesting. It was stated by HD that the reason they bought MV Agusta was to penetrate the Euro market because the average buyer is much younger and sport bike oriented .I'm assuming that there cruiser market is close to being saturated,
    If the repo bikes are bringing such a high dollar then the dealer should be able to undercut on a zero mile new bike,correct?
    I'am assumming that a repo auction is the same in every state where as the unit has to be on hold and notice to the public for sale X amount of days before public auction and at time of sale a sizeable non refundable deposit is required. If a buyer has good credit plus the cash for deposit then why would you buy a used bike at 128%over book.
    Please bring us up to date with a good reply. Thanks and good luck.

    On Aug 11 11:12 AM HDDEALER wrote:

    > I am a dealer for HD and they are making a killing on their repos
    > sold at auction. All repos are selling for 128% of retail book value.
    > They are enjoying this favorable position because of the vibrant
    > market in Europe and their domestic dealers are suffering, because
    > they are priced out of this market for used product. Where on the
    > balance sheet do these numbers from Repo Sales show up? Or do they?     Reply
  • commenter
    HDDEALER
    Aug 11 11:12 AM
    Harley Davidson Financing Leading the Pack [view article]
    I am a dealer for HD and they are making a killing on their repos sold at auction. All repos are selling for 128% of retail book value. They are enjoying this favorable position because of the vibrant market in Europe and their domestic dealers are suffering, because they are priced out of this market for used product. Where on the balance sheet do these numbers from Repo Sales show up? Or do they? Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Aug 08 01:50 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    You don't need to get snippy. I am not an accountant and do not want to figure out how to "analyze delinquency roll rates..." etc. (Know any more accounting terms that we don't?) Instead, I will apply common sense and my gut instinct, which has been correct at least in terms of predicting U.S. demand for 900 pounds of chrome with a couch cushion stacked on top for $22K.

    If you think their loan portfolio is so peachy, how do you explain the fact that they were unloading their loan portfolio on the market -- just like the mortgage companies? And now they no longer can do it, because no one wants to buy the loans? And if no one wants them, why should HOG -- that is not a finance company -- want to hold them?

    Lastly, loan losses approaching five percent does not seem real encouraging to me. (GMAC recently reported loan delinquencies of only 2.77%.) If they have to keep a substantial portion of their loans, this cuts to the bottom line. Hope their margins are still what they were if they need to start absorbing a 5-percent hit to their rolling sculptures for Oakland Raiders fans.


     Reply
  • commenter
    User 183867
    Aug 08 08:01 AM
    Harley Davidson Financing Leading the Pack [view article]
    Mallarde,
    You asked about the quality of the on-balance sheet portfolio, so I gave you the answer because you apparently cannot access or interpret the data yourself. Sorry you don't like the answer, but the implication of your question about retaining the crap they couldn't sell is without merit.

    How discretionary are their charge-offs? Why don't you figure out how to analyze delinquency roll rates, frequency of loss, severity of loss, and reserving and then get back to us on that.     Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Aug 07 05:39 PM
    Harley Davidson Financing Leading the Pack [view article]
    I think what you are saying is that they are already accounting for their loan losses on their balance sheet. Wow, they really seem to have a handle on the quality of their loan portfolio.

    And how discretionary is it when they take "charge-offs"...


    On Aug 07 08:37 AM User 183867 wrote:

    > For those with the patience to power through the above article, here
    > is where the smoke and mirrors comes in:
    >
    > ---
    >
    > Uh, net charge-offs ran at 0.6% of the on-balance sheet portfolio
    > and loan loss provisions ran at 226% of net charge-offs. These are
    > annualized numbers, so dividend by four for the quarterly rate. Loan
    > loss allowances at the end of the quarter were equal to 157% of the
    > annualized net charge-off rate. Given these numbers (look it up in
    > the Q), I wonder about what kind of smoke and mirrors Mallarde is
    > using.     Reply
  • commenter
    User 183867
    Aug 07 08:37 AM
    Harley Davidson Financing Leading the Pack [view article]
    For those with the patience to power through the above article, here is where the smoke and mirrors comes in:

    ---

    Uh, net charge-offs ran at 0.6% of the on-balance sheet portfolio and loan loss provisions ran at 226% of net charge-offs. These are annualized numbers, so dividend by four for the quarterly rate. Loan loss allowances at the end of the quarter were equal to 157% of the annualized net charge-off rate. Given these numbers (look it up in the Q), I wonder about what kind of smoke and mirrors Mallarde is using.     Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Aug 06 07:01 PM
    Harley Davidson Financing Leading the Pack [view article]
    For those with the patience to power through the above article, here is where the smoke and mirrors comes in:

    " Managed retail loans include loans held by HDFS as well as those sold through securitization transactions. "

    So based on my reading, the loan losses did not increase all that much (to 4.65%). HOWEVER, the loan losses that make up that figure include losses from the loans that HOG packaged and sold to third-parties.

    Hmmm... Wonder if the loans HOG was able to package and sell differ in any way from those it was forced to keep on its books... And if there is a difference, wonder if the loan loss ratio will start to creep into the double-digits for loans HOG still holds.     Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Aug 06 05:15 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    With all the high-end retailers getting hit due to the so-called "aspirational market" falling on hard times, I am feeling better and better about HOG as a short. Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Aug 01 01:46 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    It seems we remain in this tight trading range, which I like. Shorted more today at $37.75. Will wait until we see $42 before I short again. Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jul 31 12:05 PM
    Harley Davidson Reducing Dealer Inventories - A Positive Sign [view article]
    I find past trend numbers hard to read in an unstable year.


    On Jul 27 06:43 PM Saj wrote:

    > I don't know the exact answer to that Fujimo, but based on some HDFS
    > and A/R numbers of Harley's, it would appear pretty flexible. I would
    > guess that most if not all bikes on the floor are fully financed
    > (with a less than market interest rate).     Reply
  • commenter
    omooc
    Jul 29 08:42 PM
    My Website
    FCC Says Yes (Finally) - Cramer's Mad Money (7/28/08) [view article]
    Bearish on BIDU? The stock was up 13.76 today (7/29)! Reply
  • commenter
    FUJIMO
    Jul 29 07:52 PM
    General Discussion on HOG
    Mallarde. It's been a tough day and this has me rolling on the floor. You hit the nail on the head.

    I would leave a couple "classic" models with the primitive engine so the low-IQ brigade could continue tinkering with them. (Just joking, Harley-riders.)
    Reply
  • commenter
    Saj
    Jul 27 06:43 PM
    My Website
    Harley Davidson Reducing Dealer Inventories - A Positive Sign [view article]
    I don't know the exact answer to that Fujimo, but based on some HDFS and A/R numbers of Harley's, it would appear pretty flexible. I would guess that most if not all bikes on the floor are fully financed (with a less than market interest rate). Reply
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