Thu, Apr. 16, 11:06 AM
- Housing starts bounced just 2% to 926K in March following February's supposedly weather-related plunge. Expectations had been for a 1.05M starts in March. Gains in the northeast and midwest in March were offset by declines in the south and west.
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.4%), Lennar (LEN -2.1%), Hovnanian (HOV -2.8%), PulteGroup (PHM -2%), Ryland (RYL -2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2%), KB Home (KBH -1.9%), Standard Pacific (SPF -2.7%), NVR (NVR -1.3%).
- Previously: Lame rebound for housing starts (April 16)
- Previously: Declines in the south and west hold back housing starts (April 16)
Tue, Mar. 24, 10:08 AM
- New home sales in February at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 539K is the fastest pace in seven years. With January's revision up to 500K (from 481K), it's the fist time sales have hit 500K for two or more consecutive months since early 2008.
- The median sales price rose 2.6% to $275.5K, and inventory stands at 4.7 months of homes on the market at the current sales pace, down from 5.7 months in January.
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB +1.1%, XHB +1.1%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.9%), Pulte (PHM +1.8%), Ryland (RYL +1.5%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +2.4%), Standard Pacific (SPF +1.4%).
- Full report
- Previously: New home sales fly past expectations in February (March 24)
Fri, Mar. 20, 11:38 AM
- A good week for the homebuilders gets better after KB Home's FQ1 cruised through estimates, and the company said recently contracting profit margins are set to turn the other way for the rest of the year (the stock's up 7%).
- ITB +2.3%, XHB +1.6%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.5%), Lennar (LEN +3.6%), Pulte (PHM +2.8%), M/I Homes (MHO +3.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.4%), Standard Pacific (SPF +2.8%).
- Previously: KB Home on the move after earnings beat, margin comments (March 20)
Thu, Mar. 12, 9:31 AM
- FQ1 (ending Jan. 31) adjusted EBITDA of $21.3M vs. $11.5M a year ago. Net loss of $14.4M or $0.10 per share vs. a loss of $24.5M and $0.17 a year ago.
- Homebuilding gross margin of 18.2% down 60 basis points.
- Deliveries of 1,220 homes up 7.2% Y/Y. Active selling communities of 199 up from 193.
- Dollar value of net contracts of $521.2M up 14.4%. Number of net contracts of 1,366 up 13.6%.
- Dollar value of backlogs of $965.2M up 6.7%. Number of homes in backlog of 2,487 up 1.3%.
- February action: Dollar value of contracts of $203M up 1.4% from February 2014, with the number of homes down 2% to 539.
- Earnings call at 11 ET
- Previously: Hovnanian misses by $0.04, beats on revenue (March 12)
- HOV -0.9% premarket
Thu, Mar. 12, 9:18 AM
Wed, Mar. 11, 5:30 PM
Mon, Mar. 9, 3:22 PM
- "The Texas risk is over-stated," says JMP's Peter Martin, upgrading D.R. Horton (DHI +0.2%), KB Home (KBH +1%), and Ryland Group (RYL +1.4%) to Outperform from Market Perform. Hovnanian (HOV -1.2%), however, is reiterated at Underperform due its 40% exposure in Texas and high level of debt.
- Homebuilders on average have almost 20% of their business tied to Texas, but Martin says the impact of lower oil prices will be more-than-offset by nationwide employment growth, low interest rates, and an increasing rate of household formation.
- D.R. Horton - which does about 17% of its business in Texas - is the cheapest large-cap homebuilder, says Martin, noting its particularly large exposure to first-time buyers.
- Ryland does about 25% of its work in Texas, while KB Homes does 32%. Martin calls KB oversold given frustration over company performance in the last year, but he expects the company to prove it can sustain positive earnings growth, and for the share price then to improve.
- Previously: Homebuilders upgraded at JMP Securities (March 9)
Tue, Feb. 24, 11:09 AM
- Toll Brothers cruised past FQ1 estimates and boosted guidance, and Meritage Homes reported big increases in new orders in January. Both of those names are ahead more than 3%.
- ETFs: ITB +1.85%, XHB +1.1%
- Others: Lennar (LEN +2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.7%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.4%), Ryland (RYL +1.8%), KB Home (KBH +2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +3%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.4%).
Mon, Feb. 23, 10:51 AM
- Existing home sales fell more than forecast in January, sliding to the lowest seasonally-adjusted annualized rate since April.
- Previously: Treasury yields head south following soft home sales report (Feb. 23)
- Compass Point throws in the towel on its Outperform calls on Standard Pacific (SPF -1.2%) and Beazer Homes (BZH -1.4%), downgrading both to Neutral.
- ETFs: ITB -0.7%, XHB -0.15%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -0.5%), Lennar (LEN -1%), Hovnanian (HOV -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.7%), Ryland (RYL -1.3%), D.R. Hoton (DHI -0.8%).
Fri, Feb. 6, 3:05 PM
- With the 10-year Treasury yield ahead by 12 basis points to 1.94% and short-term interest rate futures moving quickly to price in one more rate hike this year, the homebuilder names are instead choosing to focus on the strongest 3-months of job growth in this country in nearly 20 years.
- Previously: Rate hike expectations to shift after big jobs report? (Feb. 6)
- The ITB is up 1.95% and the XHB - more weighted towards suppliers rather than homebuilders - is up 0.6%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +0.9%), Lennar (LEN +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Ryland (RYL +1.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.2%), KB Home (KBH +2.8%).
- Standard Pacific (SPF +5.7%) is the strongest of the bunch after beating Q4 estimates last night. Net new orders of 978 in Q4 rose 11% Y/Y, with the ASP up 10% to $491K.
- Previously: Standard Pacific beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (Feb. 5)
Thu, Jan. 29, 10:18 AM
- Both PulteGroup (PHM +5.3%) and Ryland (RYL +3.8%) beat earnings estimates, with Ryland's gross margins nicely higher, but Pulte's slimming some.
- Pending home sales unexpectedly cooled in December, but Y/Y comps are starting to get easier, and the 11.7% Y/Y gain was the highest since June 2013.
- ETFs: ITB +2.2%, XHB +1.3%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.6%), KB Home (KBH +4.9%), Beazer Homes (BZH +2.9%).
- Previously: PulteGroup edges higher after earnings beat (Jan. 29)
- Previously: Ryland selling prices and margins rise from last year (Jan. 29)
- Previously: Pending home sales unexpectedly drop (Jan. 29)
Mon, Jan. 26, 10:49 AM
- D.R. Horton (DHI +7.4%) earlier reported FQ1 (ending Dec. 31) results which beat estimates and also said the sales pace has picked up in January.
- On the earnings call, management guides for 2015 gross margins of roughly 20% - earlier this month, both Lennar and KB Home warned on margins in 2015.
- ITB +1.7%, XHB +1.3%
- Lennar (LEN +2.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.7%), Toll Brothers (TOL +1.4%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.2%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.9%), Ryland (RYL +1.5%)
Tue, Jan. 20, 9:43 AM
- Hovnanian (HOV -5%), M/I Homes (MHO -3.1%), and Taylor Morrison (TMHC -4.3%) are all cut at JMP Securities, with MHO and TMHC now Market Performs, and HOV now Underperform.
- Credit Suisse, meanwhile, also cuts Taylor Morrison. Alongside, the team downgrades Ryland Group (RYL -3.2%), Meritage Homes (MTH -3.4%), and PulteGroup (PHM -3.3%) to Underperform, noting margin declines (see KB Home and Lennar earnings) and a slowdown in Texas thanks to oil's plunge.
- There's one upgrade, and that's NVR (NVR), which is boosted to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: KB Home: "Work to be done" to meet goals; -12.6% (Jan. 13)
- Previously: Lennar leads homebuilders lower after earnings (Jan. 15)
Thu, Jan. 15, 11:31 AM
- The company earlier reported bottom-line results which beat estimates, but the top line slightly missed.
- FQ4 (ending Nov. 30) deliveries of 6,950 homes gained 23% from a year ago. New orders of 5,492 homes up 22%, up 24% in dollar terms. ASP of $329K vs. $307K a year ago. Incentives of 23.1K per home, or 6.6% of home sales revenue vs. $20.6K and 6.3% a year ago.
- Backlogs of 5,832 homes up 21%, up 22% in dollar terms.
- Gross margins of 25.6% fell 120 basis points from a year ago. Operating margin of 16% down 90 bps.
- Like KB Home earlier this week, Lennar (LEN -4%) warns of lower gross margins for fiscal 2015.
- ITB -2.9%, XHB -2.2%
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.7%), Hovnanian (HOV -5.3%), D.R. Horton (DHI -4.9%), Ryland (RYL -4.7%), KB Home (KBH -5.5%), Pulte (PHM -4.3%) M.D.C. Holdings (MDC -5.9%), NVR (NVR -2.5%), Standard Pacific (SPF -3.2%)
- Previously: Lennar beats by $0.11, misses on revenue (Jan. 15)
Tue, Jan. 13, 11:48 AM
- Up earlier after reporting a strong FQ4, KB Home (KBH -12.2%) goes into the tank as the earnings call begins and management warns on margins.
- Webcast here
- Some homebuilders are red, some are green, but all are well off session highs in sympathy: Hovnanian (HOV -2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL +0.3%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.6%), Ryland (RYL +0.2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: KB Home up 4.4% after strong FQ4 results (Jan. 13)
Wed, Jan. 7, 11:04 AM
- Bloomberg is reporting the president as set to announce a 50 basis point reduction in FHA fees to 0.85% at an event in Phoenix tomorrow. The news isn't good for private mortgage insurers who have been happily raking in market share gains at the expense of the government agency, but the homebuilders are a different story.
- Previously: Mortgage insurers tumble on report of cut in FHA premiums (Jan. 7)
- ETFs: ITB +3%, XHB +2.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2.7%), Lennar (LEN +3.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +4%), Ryland (RYL +2.9%), KB Home (KBH +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.6%), PulteGroup (PHM +3.9%).
HOV vs. ETF Alternatives
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc designs, constructs, markets and sells single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, urban infill and active adult homes in planned residential developments.
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