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HOV vs. ETF Alternatives
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc designs, constructs, markets and sells single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, mid-rise and high-rise condominiums, urban infill and active adult homes in planned residential developments.
Wednesday, Mar 129:54 AM
Wednesday, Mar 129:54 AM| 3 Comments
- The homebuilders are under pressure in early action amid another set of downgrades for individual names (Toll Bros., Pulte, Lyons today), and another slowdown in mortgage applications.
- The MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 2.1% last week, with the Purchase Index off 1% on the week and 17% from a year ago.
- Reporting on Credit Suisse's latest monthly agent survey, CNBC's Diana Olick says homebuyer traffic is falling and demand is "underwhelming," but the respondents cite higher rates and home prices, not the weather.
- XHB -1.3%, ITB -1.7%.
- Individual names: Hovnanian (HOV -1%), Lennar (LEN -1.2%) D.R. Horton (DHI -1.3%), Ryland (RYL -1.5%), KB Home (KBH -1.9%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.5%), MDC Holdings (MDC -1.9%).
Wednesday, Mar 510:11 AM
Wednesday, Mar 510:11 AM| Comment!
- Is it bad tidings from Hovnanian (HOV -5.9%) which reported a larger-than-expected loss in FQ1 (ended Jan. 31), with closings of 1,138 homes actually slipping 4.2% from a year ago (have any other homebuilders reported lower closings)?
- Revenue of $364M gained 1.6% Y/Y, with gross margin 180 bps higher to 18.8%.
- Net contracts during Q1 of 1,202 homes is off 10.6% from a year ago, with the dollar value down 1.6%. Contract backlog of 2,456 homes is up 6.7%, dollar value up 11.4%.
- SG&A expense of $60.4M or 16.6% of revenue compares with $49.3M or 13.8% of revenue a year ago.
- Ara Hovnanian: "Both sales and deliveries were impacted by poor weather conditions and deliveries were further impacted by shortages in labor and certain materials in some markets that have extended cycle times ... We have taken steps to spur additional sales in the spring selling season, including the launch of Big Deal Days, a national sales campaign during the month of March."
- Press release, FQ1 results
- CC at 11 ET
Wednesday, Feb 263:56 PM
Wednesday, Feb 263:56 PM| Comment!
- Presenting at an industry conference this morning, management indicated Q4 net absorptions were down about 10% and Q1 absorptions will be lower on a Y/Y basis. Weather played a small role, but steep price increases over the last couple of quarters caused the biggest hit to demand.
- The company has begun "tweaking" incentives in order to boost demand in the spring selling season and reports other builders are doing the same, says Deutsche's Nishu Sood.
- "Hovnanian’s (HOV +4.5%) results give us our first look into 2014 market conditions for the builders. The comments are a negative read-through for gross margins and pricing trends in the coming quarters as builders aim to get back to the normalized absorptions level." He maintains his Hold rating and $4.50 price target.
- Presentation slides
- Earlier: Big January new home sales print boosts builders.
Wednesday, Feb 2610:34 AM
Wednesday, Feb 2610:34 AM| 10 Comments
- Brutal winter weather has been the excuse for a long string of weak economic stats this year, but not January New Home Sales, which surged 9.6% from December to a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 468K - a 5-year high. Expectations were for a drop to 400K. December sales were revised higher from 414K to 427K.
- The median sales price rose 3.4% Y/Y to $260,100.
- The Northeast led the way with a 73.7 jump. Sales climbed 11% in the West, and 10.4% in the South. In the MidWest, they dropped 17.2%.
- Full report
- The homebuilders cheer. ETFs: XHB +1.9%, ITB +2.2%. Individual names: TOL +1.8%, HOV +2%, RYL +2.9%, KBH +2.5%, LEN +2.7%, PHM +2.3%.
Friday, Jan 3111:49 AM
Friday, Jan 3111:49 AM| 1 Comment
- The homebuilders continue a big move higher this week as the sector reports better-than-expected results from Q4, and now has the tailwind of lower rates behind it. Off four basis points to 2.66% today, the 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled about 35 basis points in January.
- A couple of upgrades has Jefferson Research raising D.R. Horton (DHI +3.5%) to a Buy and RayJay upping Pulte Group (PHM +4.5%) to Outperform.
- ETFs; XHB +1.4%, ITB +2.3%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3%), NVR (NVR +3.6%), William Lyons (WLH +1.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.2%), Lennar (LEN +3.4%)
- The New Home Company (NWHM) is up 10% from last night's IPO price of $11, but the pricing range had been expected at $15-$17 per share.
Thursday, Jan 309:44 AM
Thursday, Jan 309:44 AM| 4 Comments
- Another pair of big Q4 results from the homebuilders - today Pulte and Ryland - has the entire sector on the move. ITB +1.5%, XHB +1.1%.
- Yes, mortgage rates put a crimp in sales, but higher prices more than made up for the difference, and D.R. Horton management suggests the sales pace has picked back up in January. Pulte reported new orders off 18% from a year ago, but the value of orders barely fell. Closings in Q4 were down 4% from 2012, but revenues gained 9%.
- Taylor Morrison (TMHC +0.2%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC +1.2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +1.4%), KB Home (KBH +3.3%), Hovanian (HOV +0.8%), Toll Brothers (TOL +0.9%)
Tuesday, Jan 2810:15 AM
Tuesday, Jan 2810:15 AM| 3 Comments
- The homebuilders have their tails in their air following D.R. Horton's big earnings results which showed reports about the end of the housing recovery may be premature (DHI +8.5%). The company reported average sales price gains of 10%, orders by value up 14%, and the value of properties under contract up 20%.
- "Our weekly sales pace has accelerated in January," says Chairman Don Horton.
- XHB +1.6%, ITB +3%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3.2%), Lennar (LEN +4.3%), KB Home (KBH +3.8%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.3%), Ryland (RYL +3.2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +3.2%), Comstock (CHCI +3.9%), Pulte (PHM +2.7%), NVR (NVR +1.4%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC +3.6%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +4.2%)
Friday, Jan 179:49 AM
Friday, Jan 179:49 AM| 1 Comment
- December housing starts of 999K fell 9.8% from November, but are up 1.6% from a year ago. SIngle family starts of 667K fell 7% from last month. For the full year, an estimated 923.4K housing units were started, up 18.2% from 2012.
- Building permits of 986K declined 3% M/M, rose 4.6% Y/Y. For the full year, an estimated 974K units were authorized, up 17.5% from 2012.
- Full report
- XHB -0.75%, ITB -0.8%.
- Builders: Toll Bros. (TOL -1.1%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.1%), Ryland (RYL -1.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), Pulte (PHM -1.4%), KB Home (KBH -0.9%).
Monday, Dec 232013, 2:22 PM
Monday, Dec 232013, 2:22 PM| 3 Comments
- Homebuilders and private mortgage insurers are partying thanks to incoming FHFA chief Mel Watts' weekend move to postpone an increase in fees which would have raised significantly raised mortgage costs for those with good, but not stellar credit and less than 20% to put down.
- "This is a victory for the housing finance industry," says FBR's Edward Mills. "We believe that this is the first of a series of decisions by incoming Director Watt to preserve/expand mortgage credit availability ... We view this announcement as positive for housing generally, but specifically for private mortgage insurers, originators, and homebuilders."
- Homebuilder ETFs: XHB +2%, ITB +2.8%.
- Homebuilder names: Toll Brothers (TOL +3.9%), Putle (PHM +5%), Lennar (LEN +3.2%), KB Home (KBH +6.9%), Hovnanian (HOV +4.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF +4%).
- Mortgage insurers: Radian (RDN +4.1%), MGIC (MTG +1.1%), Genworth (GNW +1.6%), Old Republic (ORI +0.7%), NMI Holdings (NMIH +1.1%). Essent Group (ESNT -0.6%) is off a hair, but up 29% since its late-October IPO.
- Not showing much reaction today, but potentially set up to disappoint if the GSEs do not allow any private oxygen in mortgage finance are Redwood Trust (RWT -0.2%) and PennyMac Financial (PFSI +1.2%).
Wednesday, Dec 112013, 2:59 PM
Wednesday, Dec 112013, 2:59 PM| 1 Comment
- The two worst-performing sectors on a down day are industrials (XLI -1.4%) and homebuilders (XHB -1.5%), (ITB -1.9%).
- Industrials are taking a hit after Joy Global (JOY -6.3%) missed earnings estimates and provided disappointing guidance. "With a limited number of projects that can book in time to help 2014, we continue to see both the need and opportunity to lower the cost base in our business," says the company. Caterpillar (CAT -1.2%).
- Homebuilders continue to digest Toll Brothers' (TOL -1.8%) "leveling in demand" comments from yesterday's earnings results - in the 19 weeks since August 1, business has been flat vs. last year, and in the first 5 weeks of FQ1 (beginning Nov. 1) business has also been flat from 2012 (though Hurricane Sandy makes a tricky comparison).
- CEO Doug Yearley on the earnings call (transcript): "There's just not a lot of action [this time of year]. We still feel like pent-up demand is building, demographics are on our side, affordability is in place, and we are cautiously optimistic about the spring season, which begins the end of January."
- Lennar (LEN -2.3%), D. R. Horton (DHI -3%), KB Home (KBH -3.1%), Hovnanian (HOV -3.3%)
Tuesday, Nov 262013, 9:34 AM
Tuesday, Nov 262013, 9:34 AM| 2 Comments
- Homebuilders have their tails in the air following this morning's housing starts report which beat expectations and also included a big building permits print - up 6.2% from September and 13.9% from a year ago.
- Full report
- ETF: XHB +0.7%, ITB +0.7%.
- Toll Bros. (TOL +1%), Pulte (PHM +1.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.3%), Lennar (LEN -0.7%)
Thursday, Oct 242013, 3:47 PM
Thursday, Oct 242013, 3:47 PM| Comment!
- With interest rates already sharply lower than during Q3, investors look past the slowdown in new home orders last quarter at PulteGroup (PHM +7.6%) . Also reporting today, M/I Homes (MHO +7.6%) records a similar gain after new contracts of 869 homes gained 15% from a year ago.
- Not unnoticed is the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling 15 bps last week to a 4-month low of 4.13%.
- Other builders: Toll Brothers (TOL +2.5%), KB Home (KBH +2.9%), Ryland RYL, Hovnanian (HOV +2.5%), Standard Pacific (SPF +2.5%).
- ETFs: ITB +3.1%, XHB +2.4%.
Tuesday, Sep 242013, 11:40 AM
Tuesday, Sep 242013, 11:40 AM| 1 Comment
- The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB +2.6%) gains following earnings reports from Lennar (LEN +5%) and KB Home (KBH +4.5%) - both of which showed interest rate hikes taking at least some bite out of results. Also, Case-Shiller data pointed to a slight slowing in home price increases. Homebuilders have been knocked for a loop since rates started going up in May - perhaps some sell the rumor, buy the news action is warranted today.
- In other homebuilder news, RBC Capital initiates coverage on Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP +4.1%) with a Buy and $27 price target.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +3.7%), M/I Homes (MHO +3.9%), Ryland (RYL +6%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.1%).
- Other ETFs: XHB, PKB.
Monday, Sep 92013, 11:48 AM
Monday, Sep 92013, 11:48 AM| Comment!
- Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV +2.2%) move higher today, despite missing consensus estimates on its FQ3 earnings report.
- Net earnings fell 76% Y/Y as improving sales and margins were overshadowed by a year-earlier period that included a combined $42.7M in tax benefits and debt-extinguishment gains.
- Looking forward, the company says it sees solid profitability, with the combination of pent-up housing demand and positive long-term demographic trends for housing driving increased demand for new homes.
- On its call, HOV says the vast majority of its tax valuation allowance could potentially be used at end of FY14, adding that it has has no near term plan for any stock offering.
Friday, Aug 232013, 10:12 AM
Friday, Aug 232013, 10:12 AM| 29 Comments
- July new home sales fell 13.4% to an adjusted annual rate of 394K, far below expectations of 487K. The 394K pace is still 6.8% above the pace of one year ago. Given the current pace of sales, inventory rose to 5.2 months worth of homes from 3.9 in June.
- The U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB -3%). Weighted more heavily on building suppliers than the builders themselves, the S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB -1.9%).
- Lennar (LEN -3.8%), Toll Brothers (TOL -4.1%), Ryland (RYL -5.1%), KB Home (KBH -4.4%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.7%), Hovnanian (HOV -3.3%).
- Treasury prices cut sizable losses and turn green, TLT +0.3%.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
Thursday, Aug 152013, 11:40 AM
Thursday, Aug 152013, 11:40 AM| Comment!
- The NAHB builder sentiment index rises to nearly an 8-year high of 59 in August - the last time it was higher was 61 in November 2005. The move comes with the pace of new home sales nearing 500K annually, 38% higher than a year ago, but off from the 700K consistent with a healthy market.
- The HomeBuilders ETF (XHB -0.4%) continues its summer decline, though it has bounced significantly since the NAHB print hit the tape.
- Other ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB.
- A few stocks: Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), M/I Homes (MHO +3%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Pulte (PHM +2.2%), Lennar (LEN +3.1%), Ryland (RYL +1.3%), Beazer (BZH +2.9%).