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Buying Hovnanian Enterprises At Current Prices Is Likely A Poor Business Decision
- HOV was dependent on the issuance of common shares in the market to prop up the value of the firm.
- Negative equity means that the company may be worse off than if it were to just start from nothing. There is a hole to climb out of first.
- The net income from 2013 may be overstated since impairment values are almost arbitrary and being overly conservative with inventory value will show overly optimistic income numbers later on.
- Even considering the full potential value of deferred tax assets, the share price at this level does not leave anything on the table for an investor at current prices.
- Hovnanian beat estimates with its earnings report for the third quarter of 2014, and some of the other information in the report was positive, such as growth in margins.
- The homebuilder sector has been in recession for several years, and may remain there, but Hovnanian has survived so far and has returned to profitability.
- Hovnanian is a highly speculative turnaround play for the aggressive investor.
- The whisper number is $0.09, in-line with the analysts' estimate.
- Hovnanian has a 48% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 11 of the 23 earnings reports for which we have data).
- The overall average post earnings price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
Hovnanian: Avoid This Shareholder Diluting Homebuilder
Hovnanian: Volatility Increases Amid Option Optimism
Mon, Nov. 10, 10:08 AM
- Releasing preliminary FQ4 results ahead of a conference presentation, Toll Brothers reported sizable year-over-year sales gains both in terms of units and dollars. The ASP of homes delivered of $747K was up 6.3% from a year ago. The ASP of signed contracts in FQ4 of $757K was up 5%.
- PulteGroup (PHM +2.6%) is also benefitting from an upgrade to Buy at BofA. Others: Lennar (LEN +2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Ryland (RYL +3.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.4%), KB Home (KBH +3.1%).
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Wed, Oct. 22, 10:27 AM
Wed, Sep. 17, 10:04 AM
- Lennar's sizable earnings beat included a 23% gain in new orders - a strong result given the slowdown seen from some other builders.
- Previously: Lennar up 4.3% after reporting big quarter
- ETFs: ITB +2.6%, XHB +1.8%
- Individual players: Ryland (RYL +4.8%) Pulte (PHM +3.8%), Toll Bros. (TOL +3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +4%), Hovnanian (HOV +5.8%), KB Home (KBH +4.4%), Comstock (CHCI +4.2%), Standard Pacific (SPF +3.8%).
Wed, Sep. 3, 10:16 AM
- The homebuilders are lower in early action following Toll Brothers beating earnings estimates, but expressing caution on pricing power, and cutting guidance for full-year home deliveries.
- ITB -0.8%, XHB -0.5%.
- Individual names: Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), Lennar (LEN -1.5%), KB Home (KBH -1.8%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.4%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.1%), Ryland (RYL -1.5%), NVR (NVR -1.1%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.1%).
Tue, Aug. 19, 10:31 AM
- A far-faster-than-expected 15.7% gain in housing starts in July has the homebuilders sharply higher. Lenner (LEN +2.6%), Comstock (CHCI +5.8%), Ryland (RYL +2.4%), Hovnanian (HOV +3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Toll Bros. (TOL +1.4%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%).
- Commenting on the number, Bill McBride notes starts in Q1 averaged 925K on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, 997K in Q2, and that Q3 appears to be off to a solid start (1.093M in July). By year's end, McBride expects 2014 housing starts to increase by a double-digit pace over a weak 2013.
Thu, Jul. 24, 10:09 AM
- The ITB is lower by 1.5% and the XHB by 0.7% with earlier earnings misses from Pulte (PHM -1.5%) and D.R. Horton (DHI -5%). and just-released disappointing new home sales data weighing. Also reporting this morning was M/I Homes (MHO -3.2%), and that company beat estimates.
- June single-family new home sales of 406K fell 8.1% from May's rate of 442K (which was revised down from 504K). Expectations for June sales were 479K.
- The supply of new homes rises to 5.8 months at June's sales pace from 5.2 months previously.
- Other names: Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Ryland (RYL -2.3%), Standard Pacific (SPF -2%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), Toll Brothers (TOL -2.2%).
Tue, Jun. 24, 10:09 AM
- May's adjusted annual pace of 504K new home sales is the fastest print in six years. The number is 18.6% above April's pace and 16.9% higher than a year ago. The supply of new homes on the market at the current sales pace dropped to 4.5 months worth from 5.3 months in April.
- Sales in the Northeast jumped to 34K from 22K in April, and those in the West to 130K from 97K.
- Full report
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB +1.2%, XHB +0.7%.
- Toll Bros. (TOL +1.2%), Lennar (LEN +1.4%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.7%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.3%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.3%)
- Previously: New home sales soar past estimates
Fri, Jun. 20, 10:38 AM
- The averages are nudging higher, but not the homebuilder names after Owens Corning cuts 2014 guidance on continued weakness in its roofing business.
- Soft action in Q1 continued through April and May, says the company, which now sees H1 roofing volumes as much as 20% lower than 2013. Owens still expects H2 to be better, but is less confident of that forecast today than it was a few months ago.
- ETFs: ITB -1.3%, XHB -1.2%
- Toll Bros. (TOL -1.6%), TriPointe Homes (TPH -1.3%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Ryland (RYL -1.8%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.8%)
Tue, Jun. 17, 9:44 AM
- Hit particularly hard in early action are the homebuilders after May housing starts missed expectations, but a fast CPI print has interest rates higher.
- Previously: Treasury prices slip after fast CPI report
- ETFs: ITB -1.1%, XHB -0.7%
- D.R. Horton (DHI -2.3%), KB Home (KBH -1.3%), Ryland (RYL -1.1%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.2%), Lennar (LEN -0.7%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.7%)
Wed, Jun. 4, 2:02 PM
- Deliveries of 1,331 homes in FQ2 (down 6.5% Y/Y)
- Gross margin percentage of 20.2% (up 130 basis points)
- Dollar value of net contracts including unconsolidated JVs of $703M (up 1%)
- Number of contracts including unconsolidated JVs of 1,907 homes (down 2.2%)
- Backlog including unconsolidated JVs of 3,032 homes (up 7.3%)
- SG&A expense of $62.4M is 13.9% of total revenue (up 170 basis points)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $32.2M vs. $37.1M a year ago.
- CEO Ara Hovnanian: "Our sales pace during April and May was choppy and the total monthly sales pace per active selling community in both months fell short of last year's levels."
- HOV -0.9%
- Previously: Hovnanian misses by $0.08, misses on revenue
Wed, May. 28, 3:01 PM
- Jay McCanless and Annie Worthman at Sterne Agee say without the benefit of a lower tax rate other non-operating boosts, Toll Brothers (TOL +2.1%) would have missed the team's EPS estimate of $0.31 per share. They continue to rate the stock an Underperform with $28 price target.
- The bullish team at MKM Partners note Toll "essentially raised" guidance by boosting the low end of its average expected sale price this year to $690K from $675K. "Given the company’s long build cycle, we suspect that the higher guidance is likely more of a statement on the anticipated mix of closings rather than a signal that prices are being raised more aggressively."
- Amid the big gain by Toll and sharply lower interest rates, some other builders: Hovnanian (HOV +1.7%), Beazer Homes (BZH +1.4%), KB Home (KBH +0.8%), Lennar (LEN +0.2%), PulteGroup (PHM), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.2%).
- ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB
- Previously: High home prices boost Toll results
- Previously: Toll Brothers beats by $0.09, beats on revenue
Thu, Apr. 24, 1:21 PM
- The iShares DJ U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB +2.7%) gains as earnings roll in from D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Ryland, and M/I Homes. While PulteGroup saw slowdowns in closings and new orders, but offsetting increases in prices, D.R. Horton reported sales, new orders, and prices all on the rise. DHI is ahead 8%, Pulte 3%, Ryland (RYL +2.2%), M/I Homes (MHO +5.9%).
- The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB +1.2%) is more of a homebuilding supply play.
- Other builders: NVR (NVR +3.4%), Lennar (LEN +3.5%) Standard Pacific (SPF +2.8%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC +3.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.5%), Toll Bros (TOL +4.2%).
Wed, Apr. 23, 10:19 AM
- The seasonally adjusted new home sales pace of 384K in March is 14.5% below that of February and 13.3% lower than a year ago. It's the slowest pace since July, and 14.5% is the 3rd-largest decline in 20 years. The median sales price of $290K is up 12.6% Y/Y. The supply of new homes on the market is 6 months at the current sales pace, up from 5 months in February.
- Homebuilder ETFs: ITB -1.7%, XHB -1.2%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL -1.6%), Lennar (LEN -1.9%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.5%), Pulte (PHM -1.6%), KB Home (KBH -3.3%), Beazer (BZH -2.4%), Ryland (RYL -2.6%)
- The 10-year Treasury yield dips two basis points to 2.69%. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%
- Full report
Wed, Mar. 12, 9:54 AM
- The homebuilders are under pressure in early action amid another set of downgrades for individual names (Toll Bros., Pulte, Lyons today), and another slowdown in mortgage applications.
- The MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 2.1% last week, with the Purchase Index off 1% on the week and 17% from a year ago.
- Reporting on Credit Suisse's latest monthly agent survey, CNBC's Diana Olick says homebuyer traffic is falling and demand is "underwhelming," but the respondents cite higher rates and home prices, not the weather.
- XHB -1.3%, ITB -1.7%.
- Individual names: Hovnanian (HOV -1%), Lennar (LEN -1.2%) D.R. Horton (DHI -1.3%), Ryland (RYL -1.5%), KB Home (KBH -1.9%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.5%), MDC Holdings (MDC -1.9%).
Wed, Mar. 5, 10:11 AM
- Is it bad tidings from Hovnanian (HOV -5.9%) which reported a larger-than-expected loss in FQ1 (ended Jan. 31), with closings of 1,138 homes actually slipping 4.2% from a year ago (have any other homebuilders reported lower closings)?
- Revenue of $364M gained 1.6% Y/Y, with gross margin 180 bps higher to 18.8%.
- Net contracts during Q1 of 1,202 homes is off 10.6% from a year ago, with the dollar value down 1.6%. Contract backlog of 2,456 homes is up 6.7%, dollar value up 11.4%.
- SG&A expense of $60.4M or 16.6% of revenue compares with $49.3M or 13.8% of revenue a year ago.
- Ara Hovnanian: "Both sales and deliveries were impacted by poor weather conditions and deliveries were further impacted by shortages in labor and certain materials in some markets that have extended cycle times ... We have taken steps to spur additional sales in the spring selling season, including the launch of Big Deal Days, a national sales campaign during the month of March."
- Press release, FQ1 results
- CC at 11 ET
Wed, Feb. 26, 3:56 PM
- Presenting at an industry conference this morning, management indicated Q4 net absorptions were down about 10% and Q1 absorptions will be lower on a Y/Y basis. Weather played a small role, but steep price increases over the last couple of quarters caused the biggest hit to demand.
- The company has begun "tweaking" incentives in order to boost demand in the spring selling season and reports other builders are doing the same, says Deutsche's Nishu Sood.
- "Hovnanian’s (HOV +4.5%) results give us our first look into 2014 market conditions for the builders. The comments are a negative read-through for gross margins and pricing trends in the coming quarters as builders aim to get back to the normalized absorptions level." He maintains his Hold rating and $4.50 price target.
- Presentation slides
- Earlier: Big January new home sales print boosts builders.
HOV vs. ETF Alternatives
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc designs, constructs, markets and sells single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, mid-rise and high-rise condominiums, urban infill and active adult homes in planned residential developments.
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