Mon, May 11, 11:49 AM
- It's time to "take profits and... a summer vacation" in onshore oil services stocks such as National Oilwell Varco (NOV -2.8%), Weatherford International (WFT -2.7%), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN -3.7%) and RPC (RES -4%), Citigroup's Scott Gruber says.
- The onshore service stocks are discounting at least 400 horizontal rigs returning to service, yet quick-to-market tight oil means supply concerns likely will manifest as soon as the rig count begins to rally, the firm says.
- Citi downgrades NOV to Sell from Neutral given risk of backlog cancellations, continued EPS compression and valuation, and believes a recovery multiple is not warranted for the stock until backlog growth resumes; the firm also cuts RPC to Sell, reiterates its Sell rating on Helmerich & Payne (HP -2%), and lowers WFT and PTEN to Neutral from Buy.
Thu, May 7, 11:59 AM
- UBS says it's time to buy the big three names in land drilling - Helmerich & Payne (HP -2.6%), Nabors Industries (NBR -4.2%) and Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN -2.6%) - as they take market share from the weaker companies while lower oil prices wash out the weaker hands.
- The firm also notes the group is not taking the public relations beating that some of the fracking giants are from the likes of David Einhorn.
- The three companies are taking it on the chin today, but they recently reported better than expected Q1 results on improved rig revenues, even as revenues typically fell due to reduced rig activity.
Mon, Apr. 27, 5:30 PM
- Land drilling activity cuts that began late last year are nearing an end with the bottom likely this quarter, Goldman Sachs says as it upgrades land drillers Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ:PTEN), Nabors Industries (NYSE:NBR) and Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) to Buy from Neutral.
- Goldman believes the sharp reduction in rig activity - with rig declines reaching 900-plus rigs on average in Q2 2015 v- has started the self-correcting mechanism in oil supply, and that oil production should flatten in Q2 and is unlikely to grow Y/Y by Q4; the firm now expects the U.S. land rig count to increase by ~430 rigs by year-end 2016, with the horizontal rig count increasing by nearly 300 rigs.
- Earlier: Helmerich & Payne upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Mon, Apr. 27, 10:58 AM
- Helmerich & Payne (HP +3.2%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with an $85 price target, raised from $51, at Goldman Sachs, which notes HP's high exposure to increased demand for high-spec U.S. land rigs in 2016.
- The firm foresees 1,500HP or larger rigs to see the sharpest increase in utilization, increasing from 62% currently to the mid-80% range by late 2016, and that HP will be the biggest beneficiary of the demand pick-up since it controls nearly 50% of such available rigs.
- Goldman also likes HP's pristine balance sheet, with estimates 2016 net debt/capital of less than 1% vs. a 20% average for land drilling peers, and projects HP to generate substantial free cash flow in 2016 which can be used for dividend increases or share buybacks.
Thu, Apr. 23, 6:12 AM
Wed, Apr. 22, 5:30 PM
- ABBV, AEP, ALK, ALXN, ASPS, AVT, BAX, BBT, BCC, BEAV, BHE, BKU, BMS, BTU, CAB, CAM, CAT, CFX, CLFD, CLI, CMS, COL, COR, CSL, DAN, DGX, DHR, DLX, DNKN, DOW, DPS, DPZ, DST, EQM, EQT, ERIC, FAF, FCX, FNB, GM, GMT, GPK, GRA, HP, HSY, HUB.B, IQNT, IR, IVC, JAH, JCI, JNS, KKR, LAZ, LLY, LTM, LUV, MDP, MDSO, MHO, MJN, MMM, MO, MTH, NDAQ, NUE, NVS, NWE, ORI, PENN, PEP, PG, PHM, PII, PNK, PRLB, PTEN, RS, RTIX, RTN, SFE, SNA, SQNS, STC, SUI, SWK, SXC, SYNT, UAL, UNP, USG, UTEK, WBC, WCC, WNS
Thu, Apr. 16, 10:58 AM
- Ensco (ESV -4.8%) reveals in its April fleet status report that it agreed to lower dayrates on seven of its jackups working for Saudi Aramco in the Middle East, with reductions ranging 10%-20% and an average decline of 15% across the seven rigs.
- Cowen analysts believe further rate negotiations are ongoing and could affect other operators with units contracted to Saudi Aramco, noting that Rowan (RDC -4.2%) may be the most exposed since it has nine rigs currently working with Aramco; RDC secured three-year contract extensions in Sept. 2014 on four of the jackups, which could see reductions, as well as four units currently under negotiation extensions.
- Other contractors with units working for Aramco are Noble Corp. (NE -4.9%) with four units, Hercules Offshore (HERO -3.9%) with two (after the termination of the Hercules 261), and Seadrill (SDRL -3.9%) with three.
- Other offshore drilling contractors also are lower: RIG -3%, ATW -2.3%, DO -4.1%, HP -2.7%, ORIG -2.5%, PACD -4.2%.
Thu, Apr. 9, 5:48 PM
- Sell-rated Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) has the greatest risk for negative revisions among its oilfield services peers, Citi analyst Scott Gruber writes, since earnings compression is happening faster at peers; 2016 estimates are above consensus for Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ:PTEN), RPC (NYSE:RES) and Superior Energy (NYSE:SPN), partly reflecting improvement in pressure pumping margins given a lack of contract roll.
- Gruber also thinks consensus estimates are too optimistic, pricing in a full recovery in one year; the Street expects HP’s land business to generate $400M in sales in FY 2016, which Gruber estimates would require a spot dayrate of more than $30K/day or a rig count of ~270, which would be within 5% of the prior peak.
- HP currently trades at 1.7x 2016 consensus price to book value vs. 1.1x for PTEN, 1.1x for Precision Drilling (NYSE:PDS) and 0.9x for Nabors Industries (NYSE:NBR); Gruber says history suggests downside risk to 1x as HP's return on equity likely will fall to 3% in 2016.
Thu, Mar. 19, 2:26 PM
- It's a rough day for offshore drilling contractors following Transocean's (RIG -7.1%) announcement last night that it will scrap four rigs and stack four more it previously had idled, taking a $300M-$325M charge.
- Most notably, the Deepwater Expedition, which was working for $650K/day in 2014, will be scrapped; overall, the number of rigs the company plans to scrap is now 16, with possibly more to come.
- RIG was awarded a $300K/day contract for one rig for work off the coast of Nigeria, and idles another rig.
- In cutting its stock price target to $16 from $17, RBC expects just 10%-20% of available rig days will be contracted eventually given current market conditions vs. Wall Street expectations for ~35%.
- Also: ESV -4.3%, NE -5.3%, RDC -0.6%, DO -3.1%, SDRL -2.4%, ATW -5.7%, PACD -4.5%, HP -1.8%.
Fri, Feb. 27, 12:45 PM
- Hercules Offshore (HERO -28.2%) shares are crushed after this morning's downgrade to zero by Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Urban, who had maintained a Buy rating on the oil drilling services company for more than two years.
- Urban says he had remained positive on HERO relative to his negative view on the offshore driller sector because he did not foresee a lot of new competition to enter the shallow Gulf of Mexico area where the company had a commanding market position; that dominant position is no longer enough, he says, because "the collapse in oil prices has eviscerated demand.”
- Other stocks in the sector are rising today: RDC +3.6%, ATW +2.5%, RIG +2.4%, DO +2%, PKD +1.6%, HP +1.3%, ESV +1%.
Thu, Jan. 29, 5:46 PM
- In its earnings conference call today, Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) confirmed it may cut 2,000 jobs as it begins to idle rigs amid lower crude oil prices.
- "The rig count reduction thus far has been more swift than many expected," CEO John Lindsay said during the call.
- HP also said it would now build only two high-tech FlexRigs per month this year, down from the four rigs it had planned.
- HP shares fell as much as 10% to a 52-week low $54 before recovering somewhat to end -3.7%, as a weak forecast for 2015 margins and revenue overshadowed better than expected FQ1 earnings.
Thu, Jan. 29, 9:59 AM
- Helmerich & Payne (HP -6.9%) opens sharply lower after reporting better than expected FQ1 earnings due to compensation from the early termination of contracts, and warning that results for the rest of 2015 would be hurt by lower oil prices.
- In FQ2, HP expects revenue days (activity) in the U.S. land segment to decrease by ~25% Q/Q, with average rig revenue per day falling from $28.6K in FQ1 to $27K-$27.5K; in the offshore segment, HP sees revenue days remaining flat Q/Q, with average rig margin per day of ~$19.5K from $20.7K in FQ1.
- Citigroup downgrades HP shares to Sell from Neutral and cuts its price target to $55 from $71, believing "the defensive shine on the stock is tarnished by a collapse in rig pricing and utilization, as well as rising risk of contract cancellations/resets."
Thu, Jan. 29, 6:17 AM| 2 Comments
Wed, Jan. 28, 5:30 PM
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Wed, Jan. 28, 3:59 PM
- Energy stocks are broadly lower as Nymex crude oil futures fell another $1.68/bbl (-3.6%) to $44.53 after today's inventory report showed the largest weekly supply buildup since 1982, but drilling contractor are whacked with especially large losses.
- Examples: NBR -11.7%, PTEN -8.6%, PES -10.9%, PDS -12.3%, KEG -6.5%; Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), which reportedly has launched a round of steep layoffs, -6.3%.
- Among independent producers: DNR -9.7%, NFX -4.6%, SM -8.6%, SGY -10%, SD -9.7%, EOG -5.3%, PXD -6.8%, QEP -6%, APC -4.2%, XEC -3%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, Jan. 9, 12:40 PM
- Nabors Industries (NBR -3.4%) and Helmerich & Payne (HP -1.7%) are both downgraded to Hold form Buy at KeyBanc (I, II) following this week's business update from HP, which reveals how quickly and dramatically U.S. rig activity is reacting to the drop in oil prices.
- The firm expects the impact of a reduced number of working rigs and a drop on spot market dayrates to significantly hurt profitability at the two companies, at least until demand stabilizes; customers are sharply curtailing their drilling programs and releasing rigs as they come off contract.
- KeyBanc forecasts NBR's contracted rigs in the lower 48 states falling from an average of ~200 in Q4 2014 to 170 in Q1 2015, and to average 155 for full-year 2015.
HP vs. ETF Alternatives
Helmerich & Payne Inc is engaged in contract drilling of oil & gas wells for others in the ownership, development & operation of commercial real estates. Its business comprises of three reportable segments: U.S. Land, Offshore & International Land.
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