Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday November 9th):

... A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine connected to the door that he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can’t open it again without going back into the box, which would scare away any turkeys lurking on the outside. One day he had a dozen turkeys in his box. Then one walked out, leaving eleven. ‘I should have pulled the string when there were twelve inside,’ he thought, ‘but maybe if I wait, he will walk back in.’ While he was waiting for his twelfth turkey to return, two more turkeys walked out. ‘I should have been satisfied with the eleven,’ he thought. ‘If just one of them walks back, I will pull the string.’ While he was waiting, three more turkeys walked out. Eventually, he was left empty-handed. His problem was that he couldn’t give up the idea that some of the original turkeys would return.

Q3 2009 Earnings Call

November 4, 2009 2:00 pm ET

This is the second quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.

Next up is Philip Falcone's Harbinger Capital Partners. Harbinger is a $6 billion hedge fund that started back in 2000 with $25 million in seed capital from Harbert Management. Recently, Falcone bought out Harbert to gain ownership of Harbinger. And, he is 'commemorating' his purchase by returning to his roots and launching a new Harbinger hedge fund focused on distressed assets. Harbinger returned 117% in 2007 when Falcone notoriously shorted subprime mortgages. His investment style focuses on intensive research on credit, bankruptcies and proxy fights. While he obviously holds equity positions, Falcone definitely is well versed in different asset classes.

Q2 2009 Earnings Call

August 6, 2009 9:00 am ET

This is the 1st Quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings series preface.

Harbinger Capital Partners is a $6 billion firm ran by Philip Falcone. Harbinger was started in 2000 with seed capital from Harbert Management ($25 million). We've learned that Falcone is buying out Harbert to be the owner of the firm. Falcone made a name for himself in 2007 when he started shorting subprime mortgages and returned 117%. He focuses on intensive credit research, on bankruptcies and proxy fights, and was previously involved with high yield debt trading. Lately, he's been focused on equities it seems, but Harbinger's new fund will redirect his focus back to his roots.

Yesterday there were a couple of posts about how tech stocks are currently especially attractive because they hold plenty of cash and tend to have little debt. Paul Kedrosky initially caught my eye with his post "Tech Cash is King" which in turn pointed me to a story on Bloomberg by Eric Martin.

I ran a screen last night that looked at both cash and debt. Specifically, I screened for a Price-to-Cash ratio under three, a Debt-to-Equity ratio under three and a Market Cap greater than $2.5 million. Based on these criteria, I obtained a list of 136 stocks.

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up, we have Harbinger Capital, a $13 Billion firm ran by Philip Falcone. Harbinger was started in 2000 with seed capital from Harbert Management ($25 million). And, just recently, we've learned that Falcone is buying out Harbert to be the owner of the firm. Falcone made a name for himself in 2007 when he started shorting subprime mortgages and returned 117%. He focuses on intensive credit research, on bankruptcies and proxy fights, and was previously involved with high yield debt trading. Lately, Falcone has been focused on equities it seems, but Harbinger's new fund will redirect Falcone's focus back to his roots.

By Jeff St. John

Hughes Network Systems (HUGH) is the latest communications provider to see gold in the growing field of giving utilities the communication tools they need to make the smart grid a reality.

Q4 2008 Earnings Call

February 26, 2008 11:00 a.m. ET

This is the Third Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F filings here.

The other funds we've already covered include:

Q3 2008 Earnings Call

November 6, 2008 11:00 am ET

Market Analysis Commentary:  Relative Price Volume Momentum Tracks scans the Russell 3000 components for stocks that are moving up or down on relatively strong surging volume. Such stocks may signal institutional buying or selling and have a tendency to continue further in their current market direction. From a contrarian perspective, buying and selling on extreme volume also has a tendency to produce short term reversals of a stock’s market direction on the following day of trading.

Moving Up on Surging Volume

Author's Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here.

It's time to continue the Hedge Fund tracking series. If you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, Boone Pickens' BP Capital, Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management, Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp, Bruce Kovner's Caxton Associates, and Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital. And, if you want to hear some insightful thoughts from many of the hedge fund managers listed above, head over to my post on Hedge Fund manager interviews.

This week, I'm taking a slightly different approach to the hedge fund tracking series. I'm doing so because the 13F SEC filings are filed on a quarterly basis, so these materials are time sensitive and the next ones are due out in November. I stated in my series preface that you need to treat these as a lagging indicator, because that's what they are. The holdings discussed below reflect portfolio holdings as of June 30, 2008. So, since these forms are so tedious to sort through, I've condensed the rest of the hedge funds I track to summarize their major moves and top holdings.

Four times a year, hedge funds & asset managers with > $100 million AUM (assets under management) are required to report to the SEC their holdings from the previous quarter. I check these 13F filings quarterly just to get a sense as to where these funds are putting their money sector wise. If you just sit down and do some simple number crunching between last quarter's 13F and this quarter's 13F, you can see exactly where these funds have been moving their money. 

Please note, these 13F's should be treated as a lagging indicator simply because the 13F's that were just released August 10-15th 2008 show the funds' holdings as of June 30th 2008. So, in the past month and a half, they could have completely changed their portfolio. But, at the same time, its easy to see which sectors they are flocking to. See more of my introduction to the current series here.

Q2 2008 Earnings Call

August 7, 2008 11 am EST

Since my fund concentrates on new issues (IPOs) and companies issuing additional stock, and my blog usually covers stocks that fit in this area, I thought I would share some insights on the syndicate calendar and how the dynamics are changing.

After six months of very little activity, April saw much needed liquidity finally hit the markets. Since many companies had been waiting for better conditions to offer their stock, there was a glut of supply that came to market once the window opened. Initially, there was plenty of demand to soak up all the additional supply and deals performed very well. Stocks like Colfax Corporation (CFX), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) and Visa Inc. (V) all saw buying push their stocks significantly higher. Even more established names further away from their IPO’s were in demand. China names in particular such as China Finance Online Co. (JRJC), E-House (China) Holdings Limited (EJ), and Giant Interactive Group Inc. (GA) saw their shares appreciate dramatically.

Q4 2007 Earnings Call

March 3, 2008 2:00 pm ET

Flippers, Start Swimming by Robin Goldwyn Blumenthal