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IAU Forum Topics
- All Comments on IAU
- General Discussion on IAU
- Independence Day: Decoupling Gold and Silver from the Dollar [view article]
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (8/25/08) [view article]
- Gold Speculators Rushing In? [view article]
- ETF Update: Pharma ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Carry Trade [view article]
- Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
- Support for Crude at $111? [view article]
- Gold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
- Oil Will Only Fall So Far [view article]
- Gold (and Gartman) Haunting Some Investors [view article]
- Gold and the Dollar: Putting the Relative Cart Before the Relative Horse [view article]
- The Bedrock Case for the Return of the Gold Bull [view article]
- This Gold Correction Has Further To Run [view article]
loading ...Recent IAU Articles
- ETF Update: Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar ETFs Strong; Silver ETF Up; Commodities Bottom
- Independence Day: Decoupling Gold and Silver from the Dollar
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (8/25/08)
- ETF Update: Pharma ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Carry Trade
- Gold Speculators Rushing In?
- Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy
- Support for Crude at $111?
- Gold Price Conspiracy?
- Gold and the Dollar: Putting the Relative Cart Before the Relative Horse
- This Gold Correction Has Further To Run
- Full List of Articles »
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Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
Paul, The so-called bear is starting to back away. That's called fundamentals. miki ReplyGold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
Its easy to find buth Silver & Gold Coins,but you will pay out the yang, to get it! But there is ways to past that crap, search Flea Markets, those that bought at the bottom years back, will sell you 1/10 to 1/2 oz AGEs at Spot! They make a big profit, these old boys had it planned out right,sell some at $1000.00, but sell more when folks can afford to buy more,at todays Spot! The 1986 AGE has the same amount of Gold as the 2008 & they have lots of them to sell. No wonder they can afford to drive & live in a fancy moterhome!!They sell the ASEs for $22 ea, or 20 for $420, not bad, just have to wait in line,because when the word got out,lines formed, these country Folks in TN knows what real money is, so week ends are flea Markets fun! Reply
Gold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
Fox V: Good for you! Keeping it at home. Where else, right? Just have a nice safe and have a Ruger LCP .380 in your pocket.JBP: Go to your local coin dealers. Them, or eBay. Those LARGE brokers just get into your pocket and you have to WAIT to get your bullion...IF you ever get it!
Something to think about: If you want PROFITS, buy SILVER. It will OUTDISTANCE gold by multiples. Its bulkier to store, but you will smile later down the road.... Reply
Support for Crude at $111? [view article]
Acknowledging myself as a novice in technical charting, I fail to see the double bottom at 111.50. ReplySupport for Crude at $111? [view article]
Having been an energy investor since the 1990's, I have found technical analysis almost useless. Oil is a demand story, and China's lowered demand are solely the result of Bejing slowing down it's industries and driving for the Olympics. China growth is still over 10% and while I don't expect $150 oil, I do expect oil to averaqe over $120 for late 2008 and 2009. My oil investments, including integrated, e&p and service companies made plenty of money on $65.00 oil, let alone $100 plus. Since this present correction, insider buying has increased which indicates to me that the guys who know the business best are still bullish. The biggest threat to the oil companies is Obama, who if elected will be a pawn for Harry Reid & Nancy Pelosi and try and tax the companies out of business. Check out E, the Spanish integrated oil company that yields over 6% and would be immune from American Tax policy. Also Petrobas would be a good choice if the American people are dumb enough to elect Obama. At 74, nothing would surprise me! ReplySupport for Crude at $111? [view article]
Tim, Goldman Sachs is standing by their prediction of $149 crude at year end 2008, although I suspect they're feeling some pressure. Watch what happens to prices when China turns Beijing back on. ReplyGold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
I'd suggest that you read James Conrad's SeekingAlpha article of a few days ago at: seekingalpha.com/artic... ReplySupport for Crude at $111? [view article]
Use ten year data for oil, not 20. We will never see the same market that existed 20 years ago. 10 years ago China was a net exporter of oil, now they are the #2 importer, consuming 8 million barrels per day. World spare capacity was nearly 10 million barrels per day. Now it's less than 2.Short term the stocks aren't waiting for your signal. DVN hit a low in the mid 80's and is 103. EOG has already moved from 94 to 106.
Carpe Diem
Reply
Support for Crude at $111? [view article]
Use ten year data for oil, not 20. We will never see the same market that existed 20 years ago. 10 years ago China was a net exporter of oil, now they are the #2 importer, consuming 8 million barrels per day. World spare capacity was nearly 10 million barrels per day. Now it's less than 2.Short term the stocks aren't waiting for your signal. DVN hit a low in the mid 80's and is 103. EOG has already moved from 94 to 106.
Carpe Diem
Reply
Gold (and Gartman) Haunting Some Investors [view article]
Brad, you don't need delta when AT THE MONEY. You receive one dollar of insurance for each dollar move against the underlying position. The cost of that insurance is the time value and it is directly related to volatility. We can ignore the greeks completely as they all disappear at expiration of the option, which is the time period we are seeking to insure. In other words, you wouldn't pay more in time premium than you would expect the underlying could move between now and expiration of the option.I understand this wasn't the point of your article and I did read Hedging Gold's Volatility. I also understand how one could try to strip out alpha using such a method. But there are problems with the method as presented. I'll pick just three. First, you chose a "convenient" timeframe where DZZ was generating returns, not dragging on them. This made the return and risk-to-reward of the hedged portfolio artificially high compared to real world results. Second, I don't see where you took into account the fact that it took about $20,000 to acquire the hedge. In other words, $20,000 Hecla with a $20,000 DZZ hedge should be compared to $40,000 Hecla. I presume this would make the hedged returns when gold is climbing (which is most of the time in a bull market) even more pathetic. Third, you've created alpha but that doesn't mean it will always be positive. That's because you don't have ANY beta in the hedged portfolio at all. So, when beta is large and positive, you are going to have a large and negative alpha. And that would buy you exactly one calendar quarter as head of a hedge fund. Reply
Gold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
JBP - To elaborate on Fitz's answer. Gold is treated as a collectible and therefore gains are subject to a maximum 28% tax rate. So, it's taxed at your tax bracket rate, or 28% (whichever is lower), regardless of holding period. Most stocks etc. are subject to a 15% max when held more than one year. IRS link for better explanation:www.irs.gov/publicatio...
The precious metals ETF's are subject to the same tax treatment as physical metals. I have no idea how strictly this is enforced.
I have been told that LEAPS contracts are eligible for the 15% max (regardless of the underlying asset), if held more than 1 year. So you could buy a LEAPS on GLD.
The tax treatment of precious metals tells me that the government wants to discourage people from owning them (which makes me want them more).
Reply
Gold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
100goldblogs: how is it a conspiracy of the US and UK to confiscate gold by keeping the price *down*? there is still gold available on the market, and its cheaper now. my piece was about why gold's price is down, when there are so many reasons for it to be high(er). i tend to buy the explanation given by the article i referred to in my first comment to this post. also, you say it is not "safe" to hold gold?? i think it's dangerous NOT to have some gold. too much debt, too much inflation, too many printing presses on overtime...JBP: try American Precious Metals Exchange APMEX.com. also, i believe gold is treated taxwise as a collectable.
gollwoods22: gold to tumble? hard for me to buy inflation with energy & food raging. that said, when it comes to housing, you have a good point. that's what we are in: energy driven inflation, and weak economic deflation. stagflation. we go back and forth. that said, with the oil crisis we're facing, a weak currency, a huge fiscal deficit, and bernanke running the printing presses full-time in order to pay-off all the wall streeters...i'll keep some of my hard earned dollars in gold. "some". certainly not all. sorry about your job situation. i have no idea why the american big 3 auto companies went SUV when it was clear there was an oil crisis coming. short term profits over long term strategy. of course, the management still walks away mutli-millionaires. what a country.
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Gold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
"I think honestly gold is going to tumble. I mean along with the $it seems people don't understand the magnitude of deflation"
The magnitude of the deflationary pressure is what engenders the magnitude of the inflationary response. Reply
Oil Will Only Fall So Far [view article]
Old Wizard,The Saudis did in fact welcome the American military in 1991, as did other the Arab countries. Saddam Hussein had made a career out of killing his fellow Muslims, and the Americans were certainly seen as the lesser of two evils at that time. The problems arose when we stayed long after the war had ended.
I certainly don’t mean to portray Al Qaeda as “noble guardians” of Islam. They are radical extremists who twist moral and religious principles to suit their own narrow vision of a new world order. Nor do I think that the American military presence in Arabian Peninsula was remotely sufficient to justify the attack on the World Trade Center.
For a brief time after 9/11, world opinion was largely in the American court. Even the Muslim world was horrified by the hatefulness of these attacks. But in the seven years since, the United States has squandered the opportunity to win hearts and minds, attacking first Afghanistan, then Iraq. The result has been untold suffering and uncounted thousands of deaths in these two unfortunate countries--in addition to another four thousand Americans lives lost.
All for what?
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Gold Price Conspiracy? [view article]
I think honestly gold is going to tumble. I mean along with the $it seems people don't understand the magnitude of deflation
no one will have any cash NO ONE.
producers will go bankrupt with products to sell because there will be no cash.
I don't have enough gold to cover my living expenses completly fo extended periods and I work for one of the former bug three auto companies I'm toast Reply