iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF)

All Comments on ICF

  • commenter
    vreporter
    Sep 06 04:57 PM
    My Website
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    To add to all the valid comments above:
    Most buyers looked at the bottom line on an after tax basis. The deduction on mortgage interest and other incidentals was the final kicker for greed.     Reply
  • commenter
    mallarde
    Sep 06 03:58 PM
    Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away [view article]
    How can no one mention our population explosion? Remember that whole supply-demand concept?

    And what about dual income families? The newest generation of homebuyers is the first in which most women work and are often professionals earning comparable salaries. Once you have enough such dual income couples, the market has to adjust.

    I hope Credit Suisse is correct, because I am renting and am waiting and watching.     Reply
  • commenter
    watertanker
    Sep 06 03:46 PM
    A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
    job well done and very easy to follow Reply
  • commenter
    John Egan
    Sep 06 02:50 PM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    A body in free-fall will only reach a maximum descent based on either the 32 feet p/second rule or wind resistance. In this case, I feel a mighty wind! jegan ;-) Reply
  • commenter
    X-15
    Sep 06 11:56 AM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    Rents are starting to go up---but then unemployment is also. Home ownership has been priced out by the US FED policy. The FED policy was really a grab for increase in taxes due to massive Real Estate price expansion. The policy backfired and is now responsible for a Real Estate decline that is wiping out Trillions of dollars. Taxpayers are going to pay bigtime-thank you Greenspan & Bush.. the parade of incompetence goes on. I used to think Jimmy Carter was the most incompetent (21% inflation) President of my time..Whoa Bush has just nosed him out. Reply
  • commenter
    wildbill
    Sep 06 11:23 AM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    BTW, if the teaser rate ARM game is no longer an option, the implication is that the above referenced home buyer can only afford to pay for a home that allows them to have a 220k fixed rate loan at 6% for the 1,319 a month they can afford to pay. This means, on average, that housing prices will have to fall 38% +/- from the peak. Worse if you factor in that now they have to have a down payment while before they could get 100% financing. Reply
  • commenter
    wildbill
    Sep 06 10:48 AM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    It's not that complicated to understand what happened. As ReEconomist said: "People were buying (monthly) payments not price."

    Prices dramatically increased starting in 2001 because the Fed opened the floodgates; by reducing short term interest rates and actually encouraging folks to shift to ARMs instead of fixed rate loans, it made it possible for someone to pay much more for a home for the same monthly payment they would pay for a fixed price loan.

    ARMs had "teaser" rates of 1-2%. At 6% for a fixed rate 30 year mortgage on a 220k loan your monthly payment was 1,319.00; it did not take a genius to figure out that with a 2% ARM, assuming amortization over the same 30 years, you could buy a 356k home for the same monthly payment. People rode this horse as long as they could sell their appreciated home or refinance into another ARM before their loan reset.

    This strategy is no longer viable; but while it was, it enabled a lot of people to grab the brass ring.     Reply
  • commenter
    brettlee
    Sep 06 02:40 AM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    nice points!No market goes straight up or down.Owning a house is very expensive.Most people would justify a premium for ownership cause they were getting a healthy amount of appreciation.
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    brettlee
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  • commenter
    brettlee
    Sep 06 02:37 AM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    nice points!No market goes straight up or down.Owning a house is very expensive.Most people would justify a premium for ownership cause they were getting a healthy amount of appreciation.
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    brettlee
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  • commenter
    The hand
    Sep 06 02:11 AM
    My Website
    Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away [view article]
    While the credit crisis started this housing death spiral, where the drop in housing values will end has more to do with the oversupply of houses. Reply
  • commenter
    ReEconomist
    Sep 05 06:35 PM
    My Website
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    Chris B,

    Opinion as to why people were willing to spend a higher percentage of income on housing in recent years?

    Rationalizing this for many people was pretty easy when appreciation was delivering 4-10% a year. Why not get as much house as you can when it's going up every year was the thinking of many buyers. People were buying payments not price. No thought was given to what it would take to actually pay off the mortgage.

    In the years ahead, home prices are more likely than not to be stagnant and flat. This will get rid of the "I'm going to make money on this house" mentality. For a while housing may begin to be viewed as just another consumption item we buy without the expectation of making money off of it. Mortgage pay down and equity build up will be back in style.

    The generation of people now in their 70's and older aspired to have a paid off mortgage at retirement. This was a goal to work toward and an accomplishment to take pride in.

    In recent times, the younger generation viewed the situation of a paid off mortgage as wasteful. The thinking became, why have all that equity in a dormant state? Borrow it out and invest it in more real estate.

    I would expect people to become more conservative in the amount of money they spend on housing. Everyone now knows, real estate can go down and leverage can work against you and when it does it can cause severe financial shock. Most people also know now, they need to use other sources than the self-serving real estate industry when it comes to market information. How can it always be a good time to buy? It can't. There is a more optimal time to be selling and buying residential real estate.

    Getting rid of or reducing the appreciation component and a return more conservative approach to housing spending will be good for the housing market in the intermediate and long term.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Chris B
    Sep 05 05:11 PM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    Excellent points! Those of us who believe in reversion to the mean can practically watch these stats drop to the actual bottom.

    The kicker will be if rents rise instead of prices falling, thus locking in high housing costs.

    It's interesting that in recent years people have been spending so much higher percentages of their income on housing. How do we explain this economic decision by millions of people? I know that in recent years, trading up to a McMansion has been popular, even with households of 2-3 people. Did disaffection with the stock market losses of 2000-2001 make people determined to invest in tangible things? Did inflationary signals indicate that housing and commodities were the only safe investment, as in the 70's? Did 9/11 really inspire a cocoon effect of this magnitude? How much of the price run-up could be predicted on the basis of mortgage rates at 30 year lows? Did subprime / liar loan lending really create that much demand?

    Theories anyone? Or is it still too early for a post-mortem?     Reply
  • commenter
    The Hammer
    Sep 05 02:11 PM
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    Nice site ReEcon.

    It is quite obvious that renting is absoluting cheaper by wide margin vs buying in my area or even vs an income property. Cap rate at current RIP off asking prices is something like 3%. All that headache for 3% cap rate.
    LOL!
    It is amazing to me how the whole group collude together to talk up house prices or will be hesitant to mention huse prices are completely out of wack with incomes. Of course incomes and house prices are different across the country so 3-4 times median income vs house price seems to be a good general rule. You'll see in many areas that is 7-8-9-10 times incomes.
    It does not compute. We have a bunch of fools in this country who like debt slavery.     Reply
  • commenter
    WAKEUP
    Sep 05 02:02 PM
    Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away [view article]
    HARM is correct: "Humpty-Bubble&qu... is a goner. Only a few last-ditch, real estate-profiteering pogues still refuse to see it. Reply
  • commenter
    Greg Weston
    Sep 05 01:27 PM
    My Website
    Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [view article]
    I agree that housing has clearly not hit bottom. Good fair-minded article that considered both sides of the argument. Reply
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