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iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

5/20/2013, 8:49 AM ET

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Thursday, July 14, 2011, 10:58 AM Though expecting a Chinese hard landing and a 2012 recession, Gary Shilling remains positive on U.S. Treasuries, due to his view of the American economy as "the best of a bad lot." Shilling expects 30-year yields, currently at 4.2%, to eventually drop to 3%. Meanwhile, Shilling is bearish on equities and "agnostic" on gold. 2 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Friday, June 24, 2011, 1:39 PM Bearish economist Gary Shilling is ... bearish, flatly predicting another recession in 2012 as housing inventories continue to drag. Not surprisingly, his favorite picks are Treasurys - the longer term the better. "I think they're going to 3%," he says of the 30 year, currently yielding 4.2%. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 22, 2011, 8:08 AM The FOMC is due to wrap up a two-day meeting today, when it is likely to keep rates at 0-0.25% and confirm it will end its $600B bond buying scheme at the end of June. The key words in its statement will be 'extended period,' signalling the Fed has no plans to raise rates any time soon. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Monday, June 20, 2011, 9:58 AM Even as China, Russia, the Fed, and Bill Gross (apparently) shun or slow their purchases of Treasuries, yields continue to fall. If the economy remains weak and global financial conditions shaky, buyers will emerge for U.S. paper. 2 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Friday, June 17, 2011, 11:22 AM Treasury yields may rise after QEII ends, but not because the Fed has concluded its massive purchases. Instead, current weak economic data almost assures a bounce in July, with yields likely to follow. Still, with fund managers able to finance a bond portfolio at 0.25%, any rise in long term yields will be modest. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Saturday, May 14, 2011, 7:15 PM Turning to trading, Stan Druckenmiller says it's "complete nonsense" to believe low Treasury yields reflect a market copacetic with the state of government finances. "The market isn't saying anything about the future. It's saying there's a phony buyer (the Fed's QE) of $19 billion of Treasurys a week." Druckenmiller is long Treasurys.
8 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, May 10, 2011, 7:42 AM Bill Gross's initial attempt at shorting U.S. Treasurys didn't work out so great (they had their biggest rally in eight months) - so he's doubling down. Pimco's $241B Total Return Fund is now -4% in government debt, from -3% in March. Cash and equivalents soared to 37% from 31%. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Friday, May 6, 2011, 1:48 PM You can have Bill Gross' short position in Treasurys when another recession pries it out of his hands. After weeks of the bonds' gains, Gross tells Reuters that yields are low, but "perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be weak economic growth or a future recession" that dents inflation. The 30-year yield up slightly, +0.02 to 4.28%, but otherwise still falling: 10-year -0.01 to 3.14%; five-year -0.03 to 1.85%. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 5, 2011, 3:35 PM Ten-year Treasurys take out their low yield for the year, now sitting at 3.17%. Amid S&P downgrades, famous short sellers, and chatter about a default if the debt ceiling isn't raised, money finds its way into U.S. government securities when trouble arises. TLT +1.0%, TBF -1.1%. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy, On the Move]
Monday, April 18, 2011, 4:41 PM Forget the S&P rating action, says Cullen Roche; the only news that matters today is an FT article that the Fed will soon signal the end of QE. The price action - stocks down, bonds up, dollar up - is exactly what one would expect for the end of the QE trade. 3 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas, Global & FX]
Monday, April 18, 2011, 12:59 PM Jeff Gundlach says the S&P warning is good for Treasuries because it will push lawmakers into action on fiscal reform. Lower government spending combined with the end of QEII is the recipe for a deflationary environment and thus, lower bond yields. 2 Comments [Quick Ideas, U.S. Economy]
Thursday, April 14, 2011, 12:30 PM A pretty fair Bond King of his own, Jeff Gundlach simply explains why Bill Gross is wrong about bonds selling off at the end of QEII: QE is inflationary, which is bad for bonds, therefore the end of QE has to be deflationary, which is good for bonds. The charts make it difficult to argue otherwise. Did anybody actually sell Treasurys based on Gross? 15 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 11, 2011, 5:05 PM Does anybody disagree with Bill Gross? Maybe Gross himself. Once a card player, the PIMCO chief knows better than to give away his hand to an opponent. "It should set off all contrarian alert systems," writes John Carney. "Conventional wisdom on Wall Street usually turns out to be dangerous, wrong, or dangerously wrong." 2 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Monday, April 11, 2011, 7:22 AM "A giant ponzi" scheme is former PBOC advisor Yu Yongding's description of the U.S. Treasury market, who contends the Fed is the only thing standing between current bond prices and reality. Letting the yuan float would lessen the need for China to purchase U.S. debt, says Mr Yu. Comment! [Global & FX]
Friday, April 8, 2011, 12:22 PM With QEII making the Fed the marginal buyer of Treasuries, its ending means Bernanke will soon have to hike interest rates in order to attract real money buyers, says Don Coxe. This will put strain on a financial system unable to handle it. Commodities will benefit, as will the loonie, "the new Swiss franc." 6 Comments [Global & FX]
Friday, April 1, 2011, 11:10 AM The greenback returns to its pre-NFP levels as NY Fed President Dudley puts the kibosh on all the loose talk about tighter monetary policy. Bonds settle down as well, the yield on the 10 year returning to 3.46% from 3.51%, the 2 year at 0.84% from 0.88%. 2 Comments [Global & FX]