iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF)

All Comments on IEF

  • commenter
    OldLimey
    Aug 25 10:47 AM
    The Return of Extreme Bullishness? [view article]
    Notwithstanding how entertaining it can be to put one mirror in front of another and check out how far you can see, I'm afraid I couldn't read beyond those "this time might be different" words. On to the next post.... Reply
  • commenter
    sohony
    Aug 24 09:09 AM
    The Return of Extreme Bullishness? [view article]
    could this be another explanation for high call volume and a lower vix: that there's a huge number of people who want to WRITE calls, and that's where all the volume is coming from--which is also lowering the vix as call writers are having to accept much lower prices? this could be consistent with a view that the market is going sideways rather than up or down for a while. just my 2c. Reply
  • commenter
    Bill James
    Aug 23 07:28 PM
    My Website
    I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
    We can start our way out of this by changing the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity. Oil is finite. The more we depend on ingenuity, the more ingenuity we get. Here are 4 links:
    1. PRT to preempt oil in urban transport: seekingalpha.com/artic...
    2. End Urban Planning, we should have learned from the Soviets that planned economies are brittle facing changing circumstances: economiclifeboat.com/w...
    3. Plans versus Performance Standards: seekingalpha.com/artic...
    4. Wrong problem, we have a planning not an energy problem: www.earthtoys.com/emag...     Reply
  • commenter
    mlyn
    Aug 23 01:28 AM
    I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
    Like IThinkBig, I also believe a risk event will push us over the precipice. I think Buffet did not answer well the question about the U.S. dollar. He said something about foreigners can sell us back our dollars or sell to some other country as though it has no impact on value. I don't think people understand what it means to have the international reserve currency; it has its benefits but we've also abused our responsibility. A major risk event is when/if the U.S. dollar is dumped for another currency as the reserve currency like the euro. As it is, Russia wants to dump Fannie and Freddie shares; a Chinese economist says that the loss of Fannie and Freddie would change the international financial system . . . that means the end of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Reply
  • commenter
    iThinkBig
    Aug 22 07:31 PM
    My Website
    I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
    I am in the camp that it won't be "future" generations problem. The problem and fiscal crisis of the century is here, it is now and will cumulate by 2011-2012. Any geopolitical event mostly out of our control will crash the entire financial system. And the bad news is that our enemies know this. When a government begins acting Karl Marx, you get the rope from your enemies to hang yourself with. But, after shocking the black dark pool hard enough, the water will turn blue again. Take care of your family and neighbors. It will be alright but the easy days are over for a time. Reply
  • commenter
    caveatBettor
    Aug 22 11:22 AM
    My Website
    I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
    increasing taxes increases poverty. I think that leaves us with one solution. Indexing Social Security to morbidity fits into that category. Reply
  • commenter
    Richard Shaw
    Aug 22 10:18 AM
    My Website
    War in Georgia: How Markets May Feel the Effects [view article]
    Since August 7, the Russian Ruble is down 3.21% versus the USD. Their stock market indicated by the exchange traded fund RSX is down 4.35%, and the country's foreign reserves (measured in Dollars) is down 2.74%. The US stock market indicated by SPY is up 0.62% in the same period.


    These comments from the BBC August 22,2008 describe the foreign reserves status.

    Investors pulling out of Russia

    Russia has seen foreign reserves decline, a sign that the market is more nervous about investing in the region since the recent conflict in Georgia.

    Central Bank figures show reserves were sharply down in the week ending 15 August, marking a fall of $16.4bn (£8.8bn) from $597.5bn a week earlier. ...

    ... "Investors are realising that the bear has put its paw on the pipeline, and geopolitical risk is likely to remain a theme for the next month or so," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, investment director at Seven Investment Management.     Reply
  • commenter
    RobertsJim
    Aug 22 10:03 AM
    I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
    There are three ways out of this mess: reduce spending, increase taxes or both. Reply
  • commenter
    adan
    Aug 22 09:26 AM
    My Website
    I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
    my wife and i saw the movie last night - my own bottom line about it is it will stimulate, finally, discussion of the problems so many of us have either been unaware of, or thought impossible to address

    surprising, to myself, was how hopeful the movie actually made me feel (along w/the panel discussion afterwards)
    Reply
  • commenter
    J. Howle
    Aug 21 10:56 PM
    My Website
    High Yield Credit Spreads at Post Bear Stearns High [view article]
    Not an eye opening observation. What should be taken away from this graph is the fact that credit spreads are continuing to widen and will probably do so until they take out the July 15th low in the inverterd chart. Because the common is simply a long term option on the assumed future cash flows and are junior to the bonds they should be more volatile and lead the turns in the market. Reply
  • commenter
    User 4166
    Aug 21 05:03 PM
    High Yield Credit Spreads at Post Bear Stearns High [view article]
    Good post on high yield credit spreads.......please continue such posts and their associated charts. Reply
  • commenter
    Whidbey
    Aug 21 03:36 PM
    High Yield Credit Spreads at Post Bear Stearns High [view article]
    Inverse correlation is not causation. I suspect that both credit spreads and the SPX are both responding to perceptions of risk. Stocks fall when credit risks rise. The fear of more financial write downs is likely the lynch pin. Are you men economists, or just sensation seeks? Poor post. Z Reply
  • commenter
    locke
    Aug 20 10:46 PM
    High Yield Credit Spreads at Post Bear Stearns High [view article]
    Looks like the stock market is leading the bond market in this pic... Reply
  • commenter
    sanserve
    Aug 19 08:52 AM
    My Website
    Why I'm Against Fixed Income ETFs [view article]
    All Index funds are risky, especially income funds. Use Managed Closed End Funds instead. Here's some recent research with real ife investment portfolios:

    Good News For Income Investors



    Looking for good news in today's markets is like searching for the proverbial needle in a haystack. Needless to say, practically all investment grade equities and nearly all closed end funds that specialize in providing regular recurring monthly income have been reduced in market value by this prolonged correction. The quake has spread in all directions from its financial epicenter, and the mounting doom and gloom has taken its toll on even the most rational investment decision makers. Try to keep in mind that the purpose of income investing is the income that your portfolio produces not an increase in the securities' market values---



    So here's the good news (and for anyone with a 40% or higher income asset allocation, or an income portfolio being used for living expenses), it really is very good news. Base income levels, from the beginning of the stock market correction in June '07 until mid-July '08, have barely changed at all. In fact, they have probably risen in properly asset allocated portfolios. I have examined the regular recurring monthly income distributed by 56 taxable income CEFs and 61 tax-free income CEFs, and the conclusions are pretty remarkable.



    In spite of the fact that the vast majority of my favorite monthly income producers are lower in market value than I would like, the amount of income they are distributing to shareholders has not moved lower meaningfully--- even though the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by approximately 60% during the past twelve months. Here are the numbers: (1) 48% of the taxable-income CEFs are distributing precisely the same amount per share as they did a year ago. Fourteen issues have increased their payouts and fifteen have reduced them.



    The net result is a decrease of just fourteen cents (2.5% of the total monthly payout). The average current yield on the portfolio, as of mid July '07, is 9.86% without considering any capital gains distributions. Additionally, the group is selling at market prices that reflect an average discount of nearly 11% from NAV. Is that special or what? The bonds, preferred stocks, government securities are priced 11% below their current market values.



    (2) The numbers are similar with regard to the 61 tax-free income CEFs: 46% have not altered their payout over the past twelve months; eighteen have reduced their payout slightly, and 15 have increased the monthly dole. The net difference for the group over the past year is less than one cent, or a percentage change of two-tenths of one percent. Remarkable. This group is selling at an average discount from NAV of 9.1% and has a current tax-free yield of 5.51%.



    (3) Of 117 individual issues, about half have produced stable income. The others have accounted for a total payout reduction of less than 15 cents--- a measly 1.7%. Why is this amount of little consequence? Two reasons really.



    First of all, a properly asset-allocated income portfolio does not disburse all of the base income it receives, so there is income available to reinvest in more shares of income producing securities. This process assures a growing cash flow to calm your fear of rising prices. The other reason is a bit more hypothetical. The Fed has lowered rates significantly, a process that normally produces higher prices for income securities. Eventually, those lower interest rates (even if global pressures convince politicians to take back some of the reductions) should produce higher prices (i.e., profit taking opportunities) in these securities.



    Admittedly, even if your asset allocation has been fine tuned for years, lower portfolio market values in this area make stock market valuation shrinkage feel even worse. But the value of stable cash flow becomes painfully clear for investors who misguidedly depend on capital gains for their spending money. Properly asset allocated portfolios contain enough base income generators to pay the bills. The purpose of capital gains is to produce proportionately more base income generators.



    The purpose of this email is simply to bring some needed sunlight into an investment environment that is far gloomier than I think it needs to be. If you want the details, you'll have to request them personally.





    Steve Selengut

    www.sancoservices.com

    www.kiawahgolfinvestme.../

    Professional Portfolio Management since 1979

    Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
    Reply
  • commenter
    CrossProfit
    Aug 18 02:14 PM
    My Website
    Fixed Income: Little Value in Treasuries, Preferred Financials Yielding 8% [view article]
    thoroughbred,
    Yes, it makes sense for now.

    Also, nice article.

    CrossProfit     Reply
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