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iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)

  • Aug. 13, 2013, 8:38 AM
    | 1 Comment
  • Aug. 6, 2013, 11:56 AM
    • The meme that the 1994 bond market (AGG, BND) selloff won't happen again takes a blow as FRBNY researchers take a look and find this year's decline thus far is tracking 1994's carnage (and 2003's) fairly closely.
    • Where the moves differ is in the shape of the yield curve. 1994's rise in long-term yields was accompanied by higher short-term rates (as investors anticipated Fed rate hikes), leading to little-change in the yield curve. In 2013, there's been very little movement at the short-end, meaning investors are simply demanding more yield to hold longer-dated paper.
    • Popular Treasury ETFs: TLT, TBT.
    • Yield curve ETFs: STPP, FLAT.
    • Treasury bull Bill Gross (BOND) is beginning to sound maybe just the slightest bit desperate, tweeting minutes ago: "JOLTS data do NOT validate 200K payroll prints. More like 125K. Taper may be delayed if Yellen has a big vote."
    • Today's Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is here.
  • Aug. 1, 2013, 9:07 AM
    • The 326K print was the smallest since January 2008, though there is some question as to whether government models are accurately adjusting for the changed nature of summer auto plant shutdowns (some manufacturers completely forego them now).
    • The 4-week moving average declines 4.5K to 341,250.
    • Treasury prices have no issue with the seasonal adjustment and head south fast, TLT -1.2% premarket and the 10-year yield up 4 bps to 2.64%.
    • Stock index futures remain higher by 0.7%.
  • Jul. 31, 2013, 8:44 AM
    • Real personal consumption expenditures +1.8% vs. +2.3% in Q1.
    • Nonresidential fixed investment +4.6% vs. -4.6% in Q1.
    • Federal government spending -1.5% vs. -8.4% in Q1.
    • Price index +0.3% vs. +1.4% in Q1.
    • Real final sales (strips out inventory changes) +1.3% vs. +0.2% in Q1.
    • Q1 GDP revised down to 1.1% from 1.8% (makes one wonder why they're even looking at today's Q2 estimate).
    • Nevertheless, bond prices continue to fall, TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.4% premarket.
    • Stock index futures (SPY, DIA, QQQ) remain flat.
    • Previous: Q2 GDP +1.7% vs. 1.1% expectations.
    • Full report.
  • Jul. 31, 2013, 8:22 AM
    • July's 200K ADP jobs print is the largest this year (hit 209K in Dec. 2012).
    • June's gain is revised higher by 10K jobs to 198K.
    • Interest rates pop higher, the 10-year Treasury yield gaining 5 bps to 2.65%.
    • ETFs of note: TLT -0.8%, TBT +1.7% premarket.
    • Full report.
  • Jul. 24, 2013, 1:23 PM
    Treasury prices (TLT -1.6%) add to losses following the 5-year note auction and a pretty middling bid-to-cover ratio. The 10-year yield is up 11 bps to 2.61% in its worst session since the June employment report, and it's starting to take effect on the major stock market averages. The Dow (DIA -0.5%) and the S&P 500 (SPY -0.5%). The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.2%) clings on to a small gain, courtesy of Apple.
  • Jul. 21, 2013, 9:51 PM
    "So bonds (TLT, TBT) come out of their coffin and it's not even Halloween," tweets Bill Gross (BOND). "Bernanke says follow the policy rate and we agree. 2016 tightening at the earliest." Treasurys completed one of their biggest two-week rallies in a year last week as Bernanke assured investors the Fed has not yet decided to begin tapering asset purchases. January 2016 Fed Funds futures are pricing in nearly 100 bps of rate hikes between now and then.
  • Jul. 15, 2013, 3:47 PM
    With the "tapering genie" out of the bottle, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield won't go below 2.4% absent a significant weakening in the economy, says BAML U.S. rates strategy chief Priya Misra. The forces keeping rates suppressed over the years - QE, downside growth worry, safe haven demand, bond inflows - are all subsiding. Didn't Jeff Gundlach say a few weeks back, the 10-year rate couldn't go over 2.40%? TLT +0.3% and the 10-year yield is currently 2.55%.
  • Jul. 11, 2013, 7:02 AM
    Treasury yields head south fast following Bernanke's dovish tilt last night, the 10-year off about 10 bps to 2.56%. TLT +1.5% premarket. The 5-year yield (IEI) is back down to 1.4%, off 20 bps since hitting 1.6% last week - a level making little sense with the Fed sitting on a 0% Fed Funds rate for the next 2-3 years. TBT -2.4% premarket.
  • Jul. 9, 2013, 1:37 PM
    A loud treasury bull throws in the towel with David Rosenberg declaring Friday's jobs report a game-changer. The private sector gained 202K jobs last month, making that level the norm for the last 5 months. Against an average of 136K for the 2002-07 cycle and 210K for the 1992-2000 tech boom, it's a pretty fair number. "The case for the Fed's above-consensus forecasts to be met ... looks pretty strong to me." TLT flat today.
    | 1 Comment
  • Jul. 8, 2013, 8:10 AM
    Treasury yields are just starting to go higher, says Goldman, seeing the 10-year as high as 3% by year's end (2.69% at the moment) and 4% by 2016. It's a pretty meek forecast for a team that's been so bearish on Treasurys. TrimTabs notes bond market "carnage" poses big risks for corporate America as oft-noted record cash levels are balanced by record debt levels. Bill Gross remains bullish in the face of sizable losses (BOND) and outflows, tweeting over the weekend, "1-2 month performance numbers are a blip on a 40-year performance history. Pimco marches on a long-term path." TLT +0.3% premarket.
    | 1 Comment
  • Jul. 5, 2013, 4:07 PM
    The finally tally on Treasury yields finds the 10-year a whopping 22 bps higher on the session to 2.73%, and TLT -3.4%. The 5-year gains 19 bps to 1.60% - a pretty tasty yield if the Fed truly isn't hiking rates for another 2 years. IEI - an ETF targeting 3-7 year maturity, -0.8%.
  • Jul. 5, 2013, 8:36 AM
    Treasury prices crumble following June's strong employment gain. In addition to May's 20K upward revision, April's print was revised higher by 50K to 199K. The 10-year Treasury yield is up to 2.63%. TLT -1.4%, TBT +2.9% premarket. Stock index futures, however, move to new session highs, SPY +1.4%, QQQ +1.2% premarket.
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  • Jun. 26, 2013, 8:34 AM
    Treasury prices hit session highs as Kocherlakota makes the accommodative case on CNBC and Q1 GDP growth is revised down sharply. TLT +1% premarket, and the 10-year yield falls 5 bps to 2.54%.
  • Jun. 25, 2013, 3:38 PM
    "We're in a highly levered economy where households can't afford to pay much more interest," writes Bill Gross, noting monthly payments on a 30-year mortgage have jumped 20-25% since January and mortgage applications have plummeted 39% in 2 months. He's not buying Bernanke's tough talk given the reality of our economy and the chairman's "helicopter" reputation. "Investors selling Treasurys (TLT, TBT) in anticipation the Fed will ease out of the market might be disappointed."
  • Jun. 25, 2013, 12:42 PM
    Even if the Fed continues with ZIRP, there's still plenty of room for rates to rise at the long end, with Brian Wesbury noting the average peak of past Fed easing cycles saw the 10-year Treasury/Fed Funds spread at more than 3.5% vs. just over 2.5% today. TLT -0.3%, TBT +0.6%.
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IEF Description
The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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Country: United States
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