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iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)

- NYSEARCA
  • Nov. 11, 2013, 12:48 PM
    • Not worried about whether the Fed will taper or not, Ray Dalio's concern is whether the Fed even has any bullets left to use. Asset purchases work decently when asset prices are low, but with valuations high, QE is far less effective, he argues, meaning the central bank has far less power to affect the economy now.
    • Put another way, at this point Fed policy is generating a large financial asset bubble in order to get just a small pickup in the economy.
    • "The dilemma the Fed faces now is that the tools currently at its disposal are pretty much used up" - interest rates are zero and asset prices so high that low relative levels of return are nearly assured. "The Fed will either need to accept that outcome, or come up with new ideas to stimulate conditions. ... the degree and pace of tapering will for the most part be a reflection and not a driver of conditions, and won't matter that much.  What will matter much more is the efficacy of Fed stimulation going forward."
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, UST, UBT, TLO, TBX, VGIT, GSY, LBND, FSA, DTYL, SCHR, TYD, ITE, TYBS, TENZ, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVL, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
    | 18 Comments
  • Nov. 8, 2013, 9:31 AM
    • Putative incoming Fed chief Janet Yellen - of the firm belief the headline unemployment rate is not telling the full tale of the weak U.S.employment situation, and the declining labor force participation rate is a cyclical, not secular phenomenon - may be less impressed than most with today's jobs headlines.
    • The labor force participation rate fell to 62.8% from 63.2% in September and 63.8% a year ago.
    • The broader U-6 unemployment rate grew to 13.8% from 13.6% in September, and now barely improved from a year ago when it stood at 13.9%. The headline unemployment rate of 7.3% is down from 7.9% a year ago.
    • Total of those not in the labor force of 91.5M compares to 88.2M a year ago. The employment-to-population ratio of 58.3% is down from 58.6% in September and 58.7% a year ago.
    • Treasury yields continue to move higher, the 10-year now up 14 bps to 2.74%. The December 2016 Eurodollar futures contract is off 13 bps to 97.95, pricing in about 200 bps of Fed tightening between now and then.
    • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, UST, BIL, SHV, UBT, TLO, TBX, VGSH, VGIT, GSY, LBND, FSA, TYD, SCHR, DTYL, SCHO, ITE, TYBS, TENZ, FIVZ, SST, TUZ, DTUS, DTUL, DFVL, TBZ, DLBL, DFVS, TYNS
    | 3 Comments
  • Oct. 30, 2013, 2:18 PM
    • Notably missing from this meeting's statement is September's reference to concern over tightening financial conditions.
    • Notably added is a note about the slowdown in the housing sector in recent months.
    • Other than those two lines, today's statement is a near-carbon copy of September's. As usual, the K.C. Fed's Esther George dissented over worry the Fed's actions are fueling imbalances which could lead to the next bust.
    • WSJ's statement tracker.
    • Stock's remain little-changed, but Treasurys have given up their gains to turn lower, with the 10-year yield - as low as 2.48% earlier - now back to 2.53%. Perhaps the bond bulls wanted the Fed to acknowledge the softness of recent economic data. TLT -0.5%. TBT +1.1%.
    • Related ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 30, 2013, 8:30 AM
    | 25 Comments
  • Oct. 25, 2013, 11:21 AM
    • "We have a U.S. Fed policy calibrated for an outright economic depression," writes David Rosenberg, curious if the central bank's PhDs are hearing the same earnings call optimism he's hearing. He scratches his head over what appears to be a key task of the coming Yellen-Fed - raising the labor-force participation rate. Does the central bank really have the power to turn around a secular phenomenon?
    • Treasury yields are enjoying a nice run (lower), but there's not much left short of a return to outright deflation scare - a concept Rosie can't grasp given the dollar's decline to nine-month lows.
    • Sluggish payroll growth needs to be taken in context of federal employment slipping to the lowest point in nearly 50 years.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 11 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2013, 9:25 AM
    • With the Flash read falling to 51.1 in October from September's final 52.8 read, the Markit PMI gauge hits its lowest level in a year, with Output at 49.5 falling into contraction territory for the first time since September 2009.
    • New Orders fell to 51.6 from 53.2 and Supplier Delivery Times (the Maestro used to favor this measure) slid to 44.9 from 46.8.
    • Markit's Chris Williamson notes this read provides the first decent look into the effect of the government shutdown and the early verdict is it hit companies hard. "It is impossible to disentangle the impact of the shutdown from other factors that might have been at play during the month, so equally impossible to judge the extent to which business might bounce back in November."
    • Taper? What taper.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield slips to 2.47%. TLT +0.3%, TBT -0.65% premarket.
    • Full report.
    • Related ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 4 Comments
  • Oct. 23, 2013, 9:18 AM
    | 10 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2013, 8:45 AM
    • "Abysmal" private sector job growth, says Diane Swonk, noting 22K of the job gains came from government additions.
    • The headline jobs number missed estimates by 32K, but July and August revisions added 9K (July was revised lower by 15K, August higher by 24K).
    • Average workweek is unchanged at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings up $0.03 to $24.09, up 2.1% Y/Y.
    • Labor force participation rate of 63.2% and employment-to-population ratio of 58.6% are both unchanged from August. Labor force participation - of key importance to incoming Fed chief Yellen - is off 0.4% YTD. The broader U-6 unemployment rate slips to 13.6% from 13.7%. It was 14.2% a year ago.
    • Stocks and bonds both get jiggy following the numbers, which surely push thoughts of a Fed taper even further into the future. S&P 500 +0.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield slips 8 basis points to 2.53%. TLT +1%, TBT -2%.
    • S&P ETFs: IVV, SPY, VOO, RWL, SFLA, SSO, UPRO, SDS, SPXU, SH, EPS, RSP, BXUB, BXUC, BXDB.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 7 Comments
  • Oct. 21, 2013, 12:56 PM
    • Short Treasurys for much of the year, Caxton went to neutral as soon as Larry Summers dropped out of the race for Fed chief, and is now long across the curve, says the hedge fund's chief Andrew Law. "For whatever reason," the U.S. economy has been unable to "reach escape velocity ... tapering is off the table for the foreseeable future." He notes GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the last four quarters with zero rates and massive QE. Why would growth accelerate now? He believes the Fed looked at the same thing at its last meeting and realized it couldn't taper.
    • "There are no incentives for the corporate world to go out and spend – that, and housing, are critical ... The Fed is very clearly now seeking to lower interest rates."
    • On Europe, it's better, but he's not overly excited. He's keeping an eye on the euro (FXE) and expects $1.40 to be the line at which the ECB responds both verbally and maybe with a cut in rates. "The marketplace has spent the last 4 years trying to sell the euro and not quite understanding why it hasn’t collapsed to the teens… maybe now (longs) will have their moment."
    • Japan: Caxton cashed in on the yen devaluation and big stock rally earlier this year, and remains moderately bullish.
    • U.K.: There is no housing bubble. The country needs another 100K new homes per year. "My forecast would be that the BoE is not worrying too much about the housing market."
    • Law took over from Bruce Kovner at Caxton in 2008.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBXTRSY, PLW, GOVT.
    • Euro ETFs: FXE, ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX.
    | 10 Comments
  • Oct. 17, 2013, 9:21 AM
    | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 16, 2013, 2:46 PM
    • Long-dated Treasurys unexpectedly (to some) post a big rally in wake of the debt ceiling deal, with the 10-year yield tumbling 9 basis points in the past couple of hours to 2.67%.
    • The selloff and subsequent bounce-back of 4-week paper can be explained by fears (now ended) of some sort of short-term debt default, but longer-dated paper was under no such threat and might have been thought to rally thanks to the slowdown caused by the shutdown, and then sell off once ended. Go figure.
    • The Fed's Beige Book reported slowing growth in 4 of the 12 Fed districts isn't hurting, but the big move in Treasurys occurred before the 2 ET release.
    • TLT +1%, TBT -2%.
    • Other ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 12 Comments
  • Oct. 15, 2013, 4:14 PM
    • Don't buy the hype of the default-doomsters in the event of no debt ceiling deal, says John Makin - formerly a principal at Bruce Kovner's Caxton, now with the AEI. Instead, buy long-dated Treasurys - lots of them.
    • Reaching the debt ceiling means no new government borrowing, but does not mean default as the Treasury brings in plenty to pay its debt service. However, government spending will need to by cut by about 20%, or 5% of GDP - sure to plunge the economy into a nasty recession and a dangerous deflation.
    • Those screaming instant chaos this month will initially be seen as "crying wolf," but - with a 20% cut in government spending - trouble will hit soon enough. That means everyone loses - except buyers of Treasurys.
    • TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO,SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 13 Comments
  • Oct. 14, 2013, 9:48 AM
    • Thus far, the shutdown has trimmed 0.3% from Q4 GDP growth thanks to federal employee furloughs, reckons Goldman's Jan Hatzius, but the effect would be reversed in 2014 Q1 (assuming the shutdown ends). He adds another 0.2% decrease in growth thanks to the rise in uncertainty to come up with a downside risk of about 0.5% to his 2.5% Q4 GDP growth forecast.
    • Hatzius' note came out before the wrinkle of Democrats demanding the end of the sequester (automatic budget cuts) be part of any deal.
    • Thus far the shutdown - and apparent slower growth - has been of little benefit to long-term Treasury futures. They've been locked in a range surrounding 2.64% for weeks, and last week broke higher to 2.69%. The government bond market is closed today due to Columbus Day, but Treasury futures are marginally higher.
    • TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 10, 2013, 8:40 AM
    | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 9, 2013, 2:14 PM
    • Markets have rebounded from sizable early losses with a rumored deal brewing between the Senate's Harry Reid and the House's John Boehner as good of an excuse as any to hit the buy button.
    • The Dow (DIA +0.4%) is up 60 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.2%) has sliced into a loss of more than 1%.
    • The FOMC minutes suggest members felt the taper was still on the table as of three weeks ago, but plenty has transpired since, among them the government shutdown and the nomination of Janet Yellen as next Fed chief. The betting here says no taper until 2014 at the earliest.
    • Dow and Nasdaq ETFs: DIA, DDM, UDOW, DXD, SDOW, DOGQQQ, QQEW, TQQQ, QID, SQQQ, PSQ, QLD, QQQE.
    • Treasury prices (TLT -0.7%) remain a bit lower, the 10-year yield up 2 basis points to 2.66%.
    • Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | Comment!
  • Oct. 2, 2013, 3:18 PM
    • Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren becomes the first FOMC member to officially throw cold water on the idea of an October taper, telling an audience the government shutdown nearly takes any such move off the table.
    • For one - there the chance the Fed gets little fresh data to study (Friday's payroll report is in jeopardy). Second, the shutdown is likely to impose at least some collateral damage on the economy.
    • A member of the FOMC's dovish camp, Rosengren "strongly and unequivocally" supported the non-taper last month, and expects accommodative monetary policy for years to come.
    • Threatening the drop below 2.60% earlier in the day, the 10-year Treasury yield is now off just two basis points at 2.62%. TLT flat.
    • TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX.
    | 9 Comments
IEF vs. ETF Alternatives
IEF Description
The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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Country: United States
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