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Wednesday, May 29, 7:12 AM Treasury prices (TLT, TBT) are getting no bounce from declining equity markets worldwide, the yield on the 10-year rising another 2 bps to 2.18%. The belly of the curve (FIVZ, IEI, TBZ, VGIT) gets it worse, with the 5-year jumping another 5 bps to 1.07%. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, May 22, 3:23 PM Treasury yields continue to climb following the hawkish interpretation of Bernanke and FOMC minutes, the 10-year up 9 bps to 2.02% and within 6 bps of the YTD high of 2.08%. Yields will fluctuate at the long end, but the middle is moving as well, the 5-year up 7 bps to 0.89% - quite a spike for an instrument yielding so little. The IEI - which owns 3-7 year Treasury paper slides 0.3% to just about a 52-week low. The long-term TLT falls 1.4%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Thursday, May 9, 1:47 PM Massive doesn't begin to describe the move into the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (UST) last Wednesday as the $12M AUM fund went to $833M overnight. It was accompanied by a 53% increase in the $3.75B iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), suggesting someone (or ones) making a large bet targeting the middle of the Treasury curve. The moves came following FOMC minutes at which it indicated a readiness to increase QE as needed. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, April 9, 3:41 PM Bill Gross says he has changed his mind on Treasury bonds maturing in 10-years or less thanks to Japan's epic monetary easing. The premise: yields that look meager to U.S. investors look rich to the Japanese. "They [Treasurys] yield 125 basis points more" than what investors are getting on a 10-year JGB. (Previously: JGB yields plummet) 10 Comments
Friday, March 8, 9:50 AM "We like Treasurys here," says Bill Gross in the midst of big selloff in government paper. "0.91% on the 5-year produces nearly 2% return rolldown (assumes Fed stands pat until 2015)." TLT is the most popular Treasury ETF, but it's long-term paper. IEF, ITE, TYD, UST, TYO, IEI, and VGIT get you a little closer to the short-middle of the curve. 4 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
Friday, February 15, 10:00 AM "The benefits of our asset purchases may be diminishing ... they also may have some risks associated," says the Cleveland Fed's Sandra Pianalto (not a FOMC voter this year). She suggests the Fed could begin tapering asset purchases by year's end, but her prediction of 2.5% GDP growth doesn't seem to be enough to move the needle much on unemployment. Comment! [U.S. Economy, Breaking News]
Thursday, January 3, 3:53 PM The unexpected hawkish vibe from the Fed has the once-exciting, now subdued Eurodollar market stirring, with the Dec 14 contract off 4 points and the Dec 15 contract off 7. Currently trading at 99.00, the Dec 15 contract is pricing in a Fed Funds rate roughly 75 basis points higher than it stands today. Comment! [U.S. Economy]
Friday, December 14, 2012, 11:01 AM It's a big move for short-term Treasury yields, which drop 3 bps to 0.14% on the apparent ending of the TAG program. A crisis stop-gap, TAG eliminated the $250K cap on FDIC deposit insurance. No longer insured at the bank, those with serious funds are moving the cash into government paper. Will the smaller banks (KBWR, QABA) take a hit? Comment! [Financials, U.S. Economy]
Friday, November 30, 2012, 11:05 AM If the Feds force money-market funds into floating NAVs, the funds' competitive advantage over short-duration ETFs (which already float) will be erased. Schwab's move into the arena earlier this week suggests it sees the writing on the wall. Others include: MINT, BIL, SHV, GSY. Comment!
Monday, October 22, 2012, 4:48 PM BlackRock rolls out four new ETFs for its so-called core series featuring expense ratios under 0.2%. The MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) and the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) are notable because they seemingly compete with other iShares offerings - EFA and EEM. The other two are the MSCI Total International Stock ETF (IXUS) and the Core Short-Term U.S. Bond ETF (ISTB). Comment! [Financials]
Saturday, September 22, 2012, 10:02 AM An unmistakable trend is under way as investors cash in their bond ETF holdings and pour the money into stock funds. "A lot of fixed-income oriented people have decided to start chasing equities," says an ETF trader, as they fear being left behind by an equity market juggernaut (they already have been). Also seeing a rush are precious metals ETFs - the physical and the miners. 70 Comments
Friday, September 14, 2012, 11:13 AM Richard Barley has a kind word for bonds (currently in the midst of a savage sell-off), saying the global growth outlook continues to be dismal despite the Fed and ECB. Could the curve get steeper still? Sure, but the date of any increase in short rates keeps getting pushed further into the future, which should help anchor the long end. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, August 13, 2012, 3:09 PM The national average rate paid on 5-year CDs slid to 0.99% this week, the first time ever below 1%. Inside the Eccles Building, a central banker is smiling, hoping savers pay heed to the signal and instead buy a house, put on an addition, take a vacation, or purchase common stocks. 8 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, August 1, 2012, 9:33 AM Preparing for the day when the U.S. joins the negative yield club, the Treasury begins building "operational capabilities to allow for negative rate bidding in T-bill auctions." 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Friday, July 6, 2012, 9:31 AM A check of Fed Fund futures as far out as they trade on the CME shows the June 2015 contract at 99.485 compared to the near-month (July 2012) contract at 99.83. It means traders have priced in just 35 bps of Fed tightening over the next 3 years. Who said Japan's experience won't happen here? 4 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Monday, June 25, 2012, 5:49 AM Bunds are losing some of their safe haven status, as investors wonder whether Germany can continue to bear the burden of backstopping the eurozone crisis. U.S. Treasurys are likely to benefit, as few other havens remain; Switzerland and Japan are trying to deter investors to keep their currencies from appreciating, while Denmark and its northern neighbors aren't large enough to be true havens. 2 Comments [Global & FX]

IEI iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF

IEI

iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF