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Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
SHIP SHAPE If you are right on the soul crude, do you think FTO is a good play? They refine sour crude from Canada and got a large contract before oil shot so hi. ReplyOptions Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
god I get tired of the backbiting political references here. Hey, that gas crises that created line of odd and even days happened in Jimmy Carter's Presidency but it was created by and continues to be caused by the inability of Congress to pass a comprehensive energy bill. It laughable that Kenny Lay of Enron probably wrote Dick Cheney's energy bill but these clowns are no worse than the ones who proceeded them. Maybe the problem really is the U.S. voter who refused to demand an Energy policy after the last crises, just said "hey, give me a Hummer or an Expedition baby, I really need a big "safe" car like that to drive to work in. ReplyOptions Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
If only Paul Erlich had been right.If only Saddam had not tried to steal Kuwait's oil.
If only he had not tried to kill Bush the 1st
If only Algore had not invented the Internet.
If only Florida could learn how to count votes.
Am looking forward to gas lines, odd/even days, license plates ending in odd or even, fill-up limits, closed gas stations - will really be great now that vehicles are way bigger with even bigger gas tanks.
Don't know how many of you remember the 70's but if the Dems win I suspect they will be back. At least if you listen to THEIR solutions. Reply
and bristol
fashion
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
BTW, not even your left wing friend Paul Krugman thinks it's a bubble. Replyand bristol
fashion
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Believe what you want. If you invest the way you talk, you didn't make any money when it comes to energy. I did the last three years.My numbers are from the IEA, I copied it from an article on Rightside advisors.
There is a lot of sour crude around, yes. That's why the Saudis for example have cut their prices for it.
Sweet grades on the other hand are scarce. Since NYMEX Light Sweet Crude WTI is basket of sweet grades, NYMEX crude is expensive.
Thanx to environmental legislation, gas and diesel is required to have less and less sulfur in them. I know you don't believe it, but refineries are old, everybody but you knows this, and therefore refiners need low sulfur crude - the light sweet stuff.
Check the EIA numbers, since you trust them.
tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/...
Cushing, OK is what matters, when it comes to WTI. Believe me that's how it is. When you check the link, you can see that inventories are down by a quarter or so compared to last year. Right? And now consider the fall of the dollar within the last year and you're almost there.
Don't get me wrong. I know that oil has gotten ahead of itself, yea. Last week was the capitulation of the bears with a powerful short covering rally upon Wednesday's inventory data. I guess it's gonna go down from here. But I don't think it will fall much under the 100$ mark.
If you want WTI to come down, You have got to be for more drilling here in the US. 85% of our coastline are unexplored. We do not know if there is nothing out there or if there is the biggest oil field ever out there.
Congress and You are busy witch hunting. This will accomplish nothing.
Anyway, chinese cars need gas, too. And the one who can afford it, are the ones who gonna get it. Period.
Instead of holding hearings Washington should act by opening up the OCS. Down in Florida they have no problem pumping sewage into the ocean, but they have a problem with oil production.
Instead of complaining consumers should conserve. There is no reason why average joes here need 6 and 8 cylinders, while average joes elsewhere drive 1.6l 4 cylinders.
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Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Oh here you go, it took me all of 20 seconds to Google the latest news on OPEC supply. "OPEC oil supply in May is expected to rise by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), led by higher output from members including Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, an industry consultant said on Wednesday." Gee, that's not a 5% reduction from Nigeria...www.guardian.co.uk/bus...
"Nigerian supply is likely to rise by about 200,000 bpd to 2.05 million bpd" Let's see 1.85 M must have been last month so take 200,000 and divide by 1.85M and that looks like a 10.8% INCREASE in production. Must be my calculator that's off righ?
"Iran, which has been storing unsold crude at sea on oil tankers, is expected to produce about 100,000 bpd more in May, bringing supply to the market to 3.65 million bpd."
"They are still putting a lot into storage. The heavier grades are not selling well," Gerber said."
I don't have production numbers on Venezuela but their Oil Minister just announced their reserves are up 30%, must be those pesky environmentalists that are stopping them from pumping 10 ANWARs worth of oil that they've recently added...
www.economicnews.ca/ce...
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Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Now, you see, that is exactly the kind of baseless and totally false information I'm talking about!Here is the EIAs April 2008 Monthly report which clearly shows that the global oil supply was 84.64Mbd in 2005, 84.60 in 2006 and 84.59 in 2007 - flat as a pancake.
www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/i...
While they also do show an increase in demand from 84.62Mbd in 2006 to 85.35Mbd in 2007, the fact of the matter is that global inventories were 3,586Bn barrels in Q1 '07 and are at 3,534 in Q1 '08, a 52M barrel draw over 12 months, NOT 30 days!
www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/s...
The projection for Q2 is for a build of 63Mb to 3,597 IN ONE QUARTER because demand is falling off a cliff and this increased supply is projected to hold steady through 2009.
In short, there is no shortage of supply, simply a growing shortage of demand. Mexico's production in Q4 was 3.35Mbd and in Q1 was 3.30, hardly 5%. Other countries are not broken down in the report but I'd love to see the list you are working from that contradicts the IEA by such a massive amount.
I urge anyone reading these discussions to seek out the facts for yourself, do not believe what you are being spoon-fed, either by the media or by anonymous posters who throw "facts" out without bothering to cite sources.
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and bristol
fashion
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Enter your comment hereRussia saw crude production fall nearly 4% in Q1. Mexico lost nearly 5%, Venezuela -5%, Nigeria -5%. Over a dozen countries saw production fall more than 2%. Only 2 countries saw production increase by a material amount, Saudi Arabia and Angola.Oil won't come down. Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Oil needs to come down. Oil will come down.I dont much understand why prices have to skyrocket so so much more than demand. Im sorry but pricing for suspicion of future supply/demand problems doesnt get it for me. This stuff should be priced at a supply/demand rate that looks out only a fairly short time - pricing ih oil armagedon is not useful nor truthful at this point.
With the supply situation right now, /at least/ the front-month contracts should be around 95 /at most/ -- and I prefer $65 as closer to the truth for the front-month.
If hording is going on then perhaps there is truth in some of the what... 40% rise in oil in the last year, but Ill believe hording is going on if you can tell me theres been a marked increase in barrels actually being delivered.
Im glad we hit the breaking point. Congress crying, drivers staying home so they can afford to buy nice compact 36mpg vehicles with their cash (since no one will give em a loan)... it all means that oil is about to recede -- and if its true to its nature itll recede with a BANG as all the crooks get out of the trade to bring oil back down before the cops step in so they can play the game again sometime.
I think this time will be a little different in that when it does stabilize lower the dips will be bought pretty agressively, so it may not languish long as the second-strikers get their chance to get in.
Im tempted to play oil short -- Jack be nimble...
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Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
User 198 - These are just exerpts that SA takes from my membership site. All those details are discussed in the member section and the web site is linked at the top of the page. Those were day trades from the day before, we had long Apple calls that we UNcovered on the dip on Thursday and held naked overnight. BIDU was a call we picked up on yesterday's close that we escaped even this morning.Well Al, on Wednesday our screens told us to go short on XOM, CVX, SU, USO and HES as oil topped $133 and today we cashed most of them out to give you a chance to buy them back up "on the dip." If it weren't for people like you and Ship Shape, we'd have no one to buy puts from so I'm not even going to try to change your mind. In fact, we even grabbed XOM $95 calls at the close so please, go to town on Monday, we'll be shorting again when you get to around Wednesday's close - have a great weekend!
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and bristol
fashion
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
People lining up before gas stations before a price hike. Yes that is sufficient evidence for me to say that oil demand will drop after the price hike.Mr Davis do you really believe what you write? And if you really believe what you write you must have a very narrow vision. It is time to realize, that the Chinese have huge savings rates. We do not. In other words they can afford it. We do not. Because we are busy complaining instead of getting more efficient. Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
Here is a tip Phil. Take everything to do with oil off your screen. It isn't really as important as you think! You need to move on because its getting really pitiful.Reply
Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
What do you mean? Are you covering shorts or writing covered calls. Caught a break on Apple sounds like you are long. Baidu are you selling or just not doing anything. Please explain. Thanks. ReplyEditors
General Discussion on IHG
Is this a buy or a sell? ReplyUnder The Radar News - Monday [view article]
Thank you. The synopsis gives a great platform for future investments. In the meantime, may I ask about VMW? Vmw has solid accounts. Do you see the share price returning to 90s baseline anytime soon? Reply