IIF Forum Topics
- All Comments on IIF
- General Discussion on IIF
- Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
- Interview with Dave Fry, ETF Digest [view article]
- A Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
- Indian ADRs 2007 Review: Telecom, Banks Pace Gains [view article]
- A Global Game of Economic Chicken? [view article]
- Why the U.S. Credit Crunch Will Not Affect India [view article]
- Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
- Single Country Asia ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
- Seeking Alpha in Indian Real Estate [view article]
- Indian Realty Sector Expected to Grow 45% in 2008 [view article]
- Exchange-Traded Funds and Closed-End Funds by Asset Class, Type and Provider [view article]
- India: Capital Market Reform Key to Infrastructure Needs [view article]
loading ...Recent IIF Articles
- Beware of Crumbling BRICs
- Interview with Dave Fry, ETF Digest
- A Meltdown in Emerging Markets?
- A Global Game of Economic Chicken?
- Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds
- India: Capital Market Reform Key to Infrastructure Needs
- India: Fund Numbers Recover
- Why the U.S. Credit Crunch Will Not Affect India
- MSCI Frontier Markets Index Leaves Emerging Markets In the Dust
- Direxion's New Leveraged India Mutual Fund to Compete with INP
- Full List of Articles »
ing
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
EGY for Russia with some drops of UK and Nrth Africa ReplyBeware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
"China also has an undervalued currency. If policymakers allowed the currency to float more freely, it would almost certainly erase a large chunk of that country's imported commodity price inflation."Higher RMB => more expensive goods made in China => higher inflation in US
Blue collar jobs complained most about China's RMB but now they are getting burned because of a richer RMB. Reply
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
Just read, belatedly, that Buffett recently said that the US is in "stagflation"... in which "stag-" will deepen, while "-flation" will continue to soar. Betting against Buffett is not my cup of milk, so let me think aloud: With some BRICs "damaged", we still have the other two. So, long Russia and Brazil? (and "so long" CHina and India?:)With Russia in particular: since russian ruble will continue to appreciate against the dollar, it makes sense converting dollar-denominated instruments into ruble-denominated ones and sleep quite happily on the Russian index (even their largest, fully state-insured bank offers 9% on ruble 3-month deposit.) Inflation or not, I'll be up in the end, for higher ruble securities eventually converting into diminishing dollar should make additional sense. With both Putin and his puppet gearing to combat inflation, russian growth may not be above 10% as it should be with this price of oil (which ain't coming down, folks), but even 8% GDP will do wonders for my Russian index.
Tell me if I am wrong. Ple-ease:)
Reply
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
I was very big on Brazil until I read that Lula believes Obama's trade policies are very positive for Brazil. 54% tarrifs on Brazilian ethanol from the country which subsidizes sugar beet production. I don't think so. ReplyBeware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
Thanks to both authors. I had a feeling India was in trouble and was glad to have my suspicion confirmed. I know China is dicey these days so I am only 10% long there. I am turning towards Brazil and appreciate the positive sentiment (relative to RIC). Thanks again. ReplySchweitzer
Beware of Crumbling BRICs [view article]
If this concerns U S investors with BRIC-related holdings, shouldn't some of the commentary reflect "relative" rates of inflation; using, for example, the true rate of U.S. inflation? (see, Bill Gross and others)If the true U.S rate is about 5.3% (being adjusted closer to the "world average" of about 7%) the competitive edge for the PGJ index should increase.
It is interesting to note that the increase in supply of U.S. Dollars in an open economy, produces lower inflation rates than occur in "command" sytems such as China and Russia. Brazil has become more open and normal. India is a political mess with subsidies distorting the pricing mechanisms. Reply
Interview with Dave Fry, ETF Digest [view article]
i am thrilled to see two of my favorite organizations exchange some excellent ideas on the same page!!!! ReplyA Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
There's a disconnect here. The MS India Fund (IIF) just declared a 35% dividend (based on current fund share price of $24). Even if they declare no dividend in December - and they have paid a December dividend every year for nearly 20, that is a hell of a return even without price appreciation. Granted that that represents the past, not the future, and some economic slowdown has begun in India. But the fact remains that India is still growing very fast ahd stocks there are cheap.I don't invest with commies so I don't do China at this time. Reply
Indian ADRs 2007 Review: Telecom, Banks Pace Gains [view article]
Is there any way to invest in India's Reliance Industries? Doesn't seem to have any ADR for that one. Would be good to get a piece of Reliance. Any suggestions will help. ReplyA Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
Mr. Chen--perhaps you could say why you believe the recent downturn in the Chinese market is strongly related to how the Shanghai market was set up 20 years ago? If nothing else it would give less ammunition to those who are critiquing your tone. ReplyA Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
Another financial journalist saying something just to be saying something. The chatter is endless and needless -- and in this case confusing and obtuse. ReplyA Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
As the world goes into recession, China will be hurt in a big way. Many banks have huge proportion of under performing real estate loans and property prices are highly inflated. Think about the speculation... China Oil is down 70% since last October.After the games, I expect FXI to drop to less than $100, perhaps as low as $70. This estimate is based on a comparison of the decline of the NASDAQ in 2000 and the shape of the curve going up and down for both indexes. Plot both on a 10 year chart along with the other emerging markets and it becomes clearer the direction things are headed. Not knowable how far down anything can go.
Did you see that in the Lehman markdowns in their recent earnings report that they anticipate a 28% decline in property values in Europe? When values triple in 10 years, it makes sense and becomes comparable to CA in what might happen. How can China grow when their markets are shrinking? Reply
A Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
Chip on shoulder is out of place Mr. Chen. Stick to the facts. ReplyA Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
Chen, sounds like you are very sensitive to any criticism regarding anything Chinese, one has to take the emotion out of investing and just look at the facts (as you see them) and make an investment call. Nothing to do with nationalism.Reply
A Meltdown in Emerging Markets? [view article]
Hey Chen,Not a wild guess. 4x as much energy to produce a dollar of GDP. Fact. subsidizing energy costs. Fact. Manufacturing based economies are more energy intensive. Fact. Why is Brazil down 10% and Shanghai down over 50%?
I've been following the emerging markets for over 15 years and made a lot of money in these markets. The only ones I've been in since late September are latin america, eastern europe and a very small India position.
Watch what happens to energy subsidies in China after the Olympics. There might well be energy price protests.
Alex Reply