Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund, Inc. (IIF)
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- Japanese Investors Moving Money from China to India: Too Late? (IFN, IIF) [view article]
- The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
- Don't Write off the Gold and Commodities Bull Run [view article]
- Atyant Capital (an Indian Hedge Fund) on India vs. China (IFN, IIF) [view article]
- India's Sensex Likely To Trade in 11-13K Range Through 2008 [view article]
- India's Growth Rate Slows Further In Q2 2008 [view article]
- India Overview: Inflation, Exports, the Trade Deficit, the Rupee and FX Reserves [view article]
- India Inflation Woes May Continue [view article]
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
- Indian Inflation Accelerates Again [view article]
- Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [view article]
loading ...Recent IIF Articles
- India Overview: Inflation, Exports, the Trade Deficit, the Rupee and FX Reserves
- India's Growth Rate Slows Further In Q2 2008
- Indian Inflation Accelerates Again
- Don't Write off the Gold and Commodities Bull Run
- Outlook for the Indian Economy
- The Indian Economy and Gold Imports
- ETFs In Greatest Demand: Financials, Healthcare/Biotech; India's Signs of Life
- India Inflation Woes May Continue
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008)
- India's Sensex Likely To Trade in 11-13K Range Through 2008
- Full List of Articles »
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Mandalik
The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
I am surprised by your assessment “The Indian economy was always in bad shape”. I do not understand your logic.The Indian GDP has grown at over 9% for 4 years in a row. Even after taking into account the impact of the steep hike in crude oil prices(softened recently to $120 a barrel), and the US banking crisis, the average analyst estimates for India GDP growth are pegged at 7.5 to 8% for Fiscal 2009. The Indian economy is on pretty solid ground even when the global economy is challenged. India is partly (not completely) shielded from the weakness in the global economy by the Domestic consumption and savings growth that continue to be strong.
The Global economy, Crude oil prices, changes in business environment and political uncertainty will continue to have an impact on India’s economy just as it does to any other economy. However, the strong fundamentals of the Indian Economy and its vibrant Corporations and entrepreneurs will be the main drivers that will fuel excellent long term growth.
Now let us look at the Indian stock market in numbers. Why did the SENSEX fall by 40% from the 21000 level? At 21000 BSE was overstretched in the first place and a correction very much warranted. With the market correction, Sensex today is at 15117. The Sensex is trading at a forward PE of 15X (FY09). The historical forward PE for the Sensex is 14X. However, with the revenues and profits growing at a higher rate than in the past (pre-2003), a forward PE of 16X would be very much justified. So I expect the Sensex to be well past 16000 by April 2009. (Well past 16000 because it will start discounting FY10 earnings by that time)
Is there a key indicator that the Indian Corporate sector is still doing reasonably well? Corporate tax collections have shown a more than healthy growth of 50% in the first 4 months (Apr-Jul 09) of fiscal 2009(Rs 41,598 crore as against Rs 27,718 crore in fiscal 08). Corporations pay advance taxes based on expected earnings. The net earnings of the SENSEX 30 companies grew by 17% in Q1FY09 with revenue growth of 29% YOY. Corporations
The importance of agriculture: To put the Indian economy in perspective, the contribution of the major sectors to the Indian economy GDP is as follows: Services 53%, Industries 30%, and Agriculture 17%. Note that Agriculture, where growth has averaged around 2.5% over last several years, accounts for just 17% of GDP today and plays a limited role in overall GDP growth.
The reason agriculture is very important to India is because about 60% (70% is incorrect) population is dependent on agriculture. Hardship to 60% of the population is indeed very painful. The Indian politicians are very much aware of this challenge and will make all the noises and take dramatic (sometimes incorrect) steps to address the challenge. 60% of votes come from this population; Indian politicians need no bigger incentive to take action!
TO sum it up, I am confident that the Indian economy and the stock market will provide excellent long term growth and the current drop in stock prices is a great buying opportunity for anyone with a time horizon of over 3 years. The government and Indian businesses would do well to give an extra fillip to Agriculture to make the growth more inclusive.
Reply
The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
Ironically as soon as you posted the article abt $600 Million was pumped in the stock market in a single day!! ReplyThe Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
Wow are you negative. Ive always found that when everyone is negative its time to buy which I just did. (not gold but Indian stocks) ReplyIndia Inflation Woes May Continue [view article]
yes wat i think is that we r going to face tough time ahead. until crude oil really fall to double digit. monsoon is definitely crucial and decisive for our economy ReplyA 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
Finally, a universal overview that gives the reader direction for areas to research for future investment. Great job! Replyn
India Inflation Woes May Continue [view article]
If India/Pakistan/Iran pipeline goes through in spite of pressure from USA, then India has hope to moderate inflation.Iran is ready to price it with DELIVERY AT Pakistan /india border.The monsoon gods have been favourable though late and it is going to show up in cauvery delta region.also malaysia has lowered Palm oil prices due to accumulating stock and this will help India ReplyA 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
Thank you, very helpful. Replying
A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
very good job Richard, it gives a sectoral - global view, I learned a lot with the summary! Challenging times Replyit
India: Emerging Market Opportunity [view article]
This blog is quite nice and informative , we had a pleasure to post a comment on this usefull blog created by the webmasterTomorrow i.e. 31st July'08 the day when the Inflation data will come.Inflation from the past successive weeks is keep on increasing,this has now become a major factor deciding the following days movement of Indian Stock Market.RBI and the government is taking steps to control it.Inflation has to be kept under control for the interest of the economy, Indian Stock Market is governed by lots of factors one including them is Inflation that has also to be kept in mind always
Sectors giving good return over period of time includes:
1.INFRASTRUCTURE
2.PHARMA
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Insight
India's Sensex Likely To Trade in 11-13K Range Through 2008 [view article]
However, the SENSEX is already over 14,000Reply
India's Strong Growth Should Continue [view article]
quote- "..there is no Scam in the market today."There IS a scam in the market!
EXPERTS like this author and 2 Vikrams promoting their sites and questionable expertise.
Would do well to get a reality check here:
indiaplay.blogspot.com/
Reply
Global ETF Wrap Up [view article]
Looks like every country is importing inflation from us. ReplySingh
India: The Bear Case [view article]
What will Chinese do after olympics? Chinese market is going to be bearish after Olympics. The preparation for Olympics created millions of jobs and huge profts for many companies which supplied them intemdiate goods over the last so many years since they had won the bid for Olympics. The economy as a whole has built a lot of excess capacity during the years. Once the Olymics are over, the economy would be in dol-drums. All these would mean that the excess capcity would remain untilized and the profits suppliers would go down and stocks would perform badly in the same manner that had happened in Japan during the nineties and during this century. India does not have such an eventuality because its growth is balanced.Alakh Reply
India's Strong Growth Should Continue [view article]
sooth_sayer: Have you the skyline of major Japanese cities and compared them with Indian cities. Like HK, Japan also grew vertically. Vertical growth bypasses land constraints and hence can lead to excess supply. Except for the metros, most Indian cities do not have a skyline! When it comes to housing, demographics are a key. India has the largest number of people under 25. Household formation is increasing with better economic climate, which will provide support to the real-estate market. ReplyIndia's Strong Growth Should Continue [view article]
One of the best article written so far, excellent use of chronological events about the downfall of US and indian markets and the reasoning behind it. People who didn't understand this article will definately make bad financial decision in future!!! Reply