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- Argentina and Brazil Abolish Dollar in Bilateral Trade [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- The Emerging Markets Cell Phone Index [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Emerging Markets: Ready to Rebound? [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Minefields in LatAm: Dodging Political Pitfalls [view article]
- Portfolio Investor: Clark on Commodities [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- 6 South American Stocks Offering Interesting Opportunities [view article]
- Investing in Latin America [view article]
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- S&P: Latin America Faces Headwinds from U.S. Financial Distress
- Argentina and Brazil Abolish Dollar in Bilateral Trade
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- The Emerging Markets Cell Phone Index
- Emerging Markets: Ready to Rebound?
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Portfolio Investor: Clark on Commodities
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- 6 South American Stocks Offering Interesting Opportunities
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Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Great cartoon. It really puts things in perspective. ReplyThe U.S. Credit Crisis: Major Paradigm Shift [view article]
At this juncture in history, we are getting hit with multiple punches simultaneously. We have a speculative bubble unlike anything we have ever seen (i.e., tulip bubble, etc.). This bubble CREATED the housing crisis. We have a serious energy problem, caused at least by a combination of US foreign policy (Iraq invasion), middle east geopolitics (related to the first point- Iran vs. US and Israel, Israel vs.the rest of the middle east, US support for Israel, Europe vs. US, etc.). Add to that the dynamic growth in China, India, and Asia in general, vying for the same oil, with no easy way to crank up production, plus an at least temporary food shortage, and we are potentially in a heap of trouble.Now the peak oil folks are saying, 'see, we told you so' (high gas prices, political turmoil), and the environmentalists are saying ,' see, we told you so ' (food shartage, storms, bad weather).
We need to keep cool heads at this point. First, there is evidence enough that the various political situations, including relative falling petroleum supply (i.e., we cannot just crank up oil supply to meet demand) coupled with a panicked rush to commodities due to the financial collapse and various derivative contracts, shorting, etc. are big factors in the energy issues.
Now, peak oil eventually may be real, and with half the world waking up and developing, we need to take the underlying theory seriously. I think $120+ barrel oil may end up saving us IF we act NOW to start developing alternatives. We need tax incentives, government sponsorship, as well as good old American ingenuity to kick in NOW.The $120/barrel oil creates the economic framework to make alternatives possible.
This is not the time to give up as some of the more liberal peak oil advocates imply we should. A wise Catholic Saint once said something like 'Know that God can do anything, but act as though He will do nothing'. Let's not forget there is a God, and He could be testing us, He could be punishing us. We do not know for sure. But do not give up. Turn back to some of our basic Christian values (and natural law in general), think about what we are doing and why, and let's roll up our sleeves to solve this issue- not just prepare for the end, and hide in the wilderness. It is not all criticism for the more liberal peak oilers- some of their ideas about reviving urban living are not all bad, and make sense certainly in the short to medium timeframe. Much of their criticisms of suburbia deserve some consideration.
Let's also not get all tied up with Gore gloom and doom over highly speculative theories about disasterous human induced CO2 warming of the planet. In fact we may be headed for a little ice age! Let's develop any energy source we can, and not let the environmentalists tell us (especially the U.S., China and India which have extensie coal reserves) that coal is out because of the CO2 problem. This is pure insanity at this juncture. If the peak oil problem is allowed to play out because of our inaction, you will see an environmental disaster of unimagineable proportions. Even the anti-Christian Malthusian Darwinists could not create a scenario so hororible (though God knows they keep trying).
Turn back to basic values, including. God, country and family, roll up your sleeves, do not give up, and let's work together (with the rest of the world) to solve the problems ahead of us.
siv0.com
TakeBackTheFed.com Reply
The U.S. Credit Crisis: Major Paradigm Shift [view article]
interesting article. with good solution to the problem. ReplyWednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
thanks a bunch,David,useful as always.. ReplyWednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Can somebody pass a Federal law prohibiting tenths-of-a-penny pricing for retail gallons of gas? (I hate laws, but I think that's what it would take in this case.) ReplyThe U.S. Credit Crisis: Major Paradigm Shift [view article]
Seems like re-evaluation of the dollar is the ultimate solution. ReplyWednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
also thks from me. very useful thkis oversight. ReplyThe U.S. Credit Crisis: Major Paradigm Shift [view article]
The credit crises boiled over in March. If truth were known before Bear Stearns the other WS bankers, Morgan, etc. all had probably equally weak balance sheets from undisclosed asset write downs. Look at the way that cute little tax lawyer turned CFO played games at Lehman with their first quarter!But James Canne did not play ball with his brothers on street in the Long Term Capital Management bail out years ago and they never forgot it. Now that the sharks have feasted on Bear and gotten a planned for direct tap to the Fed as a result, exchanging worthless collateral that they no longer have to write down on their books for Treasury bonds, no more brothers will have to be eaten. Somebody had to be the sacrificial lamb for the Street to survive by government subsidy and Jimmy and his crew was the most appropriate candidate.
If you take a look at the Fed balance sheet now you will see the replacement of 200 billion in government bonds with all sorts of garbage. But since the Fed is not subject to any mark to market rule, the bankruptcy of Wall Street (and that of the commercial banking sector) has been swept under the Fed's rug.
The question is whether the Fed's rug is big enough to cover the credit crises indefinitely. Certainly not in the long run, too much debt will have to be monetized to restore its government bond assets. But until the next election is over so a Republican is put back in the White House..yes!
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Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
What 148223 said, above. ReplyWednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Reviewing David's weekly notations on the moving average graphs certainly helps me keep all four wheels on the road, i.e., a sanity check! Very simply - thanks. ReplyL. Johnson
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
That the market rallied on low volume is a worry. Will volume pickup today? Looks like it might. Oil continues to decline this morning while stock futures are up. ReplyWednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Thank you David Fry for your beautiful work and thoughtful humor. ReplyThe U.S. Credit Crisis: Major Paradigm Shift [view article]
I would trust the Fed numbers far more than what some fringe groups/persons claim.So the debt load is $50 trillion, 4 times the GDP. Reply
The U.S. Credit Crisis: Major Paradigm Shift [view article]
Sorry I should have put the reference I got the US debt and obligations numbers (265 trillions from Dr. Weiss website (www.moneyandmarkets.co..., and www.moneyandmarkets.co...). According to Dr. Weiss of Weiss Research the total US debt and obligations is 265 trillions, 20 times the total economy of USA ($49 trillion in interest-bearing debts, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, $50 trillion in federal contingency debts, according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and $164 trillion in derivatives, according to the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). ReplyThe U.S. Credit Crisis: Major Paradigm Shift [view article]
Interesting read, but only superficially. Quasi-literate and filled with some pretty wild statements with no backup, explanation or proof. Mostly hype with some truth mingled in. Example: 19x GDP in debt? Not even close. US debt is around 1x GDP. Where is the other 18x? Etc. Reply