Barclays Bank PLC iPath ETNs linked to the MSCI India Total Return Index (INP)

All Comments on INP

  • commenter
    Kamal Ahuja
    Aug 09 02:24 PM
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    Thank you for your analysis Edward. It was a good read.

    The Indian government faces a formidable task of managing inflation. I believe this should become the top priority of the present administration. Clearly, energy costs are distorting the economic picture with inflation eating away any perceived real gdp growth.

    Reply
  • commenter
    yank
    Aug 09 10:39 AM
    My Website
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    Edward:
    Very nice job of analyzing and forecasting the economic growth of India. It was extremely informative. I would not pay too much attention to the quibbling over your grammar. We seem to have quite a few people who would rather focus on "minutia" instead of the "big picture". I agree with you that there is a democracy "put" as you say when investing in India. One of my portfolio holdings announced this week a rather large joint venture deal with an Indian engineering & construction firm. I do not believe they would make that sort of commitment unless they foresaw substantial growth opportunities in the country. The "wild card" here is the future direction of oil prices. It is very hard for me to get behind the recent spike in the US dollar (USD) as making the case for much lower oil prices. Mainly because Mr. Bernanke has very little capacity to raise rates at all this year and may not be able to do so until mid 2009 at the earliest. Buying the USD because the Eurozone "may" decrease rates seems silly to me since Mr. Trichet just raised rates last month. Why would he reverse himself in such a short time period? Does not speak much to his credibility if he chose to do so now. Anyway, I think the USD is "overbought" here especially since currency traders are completely overlooking (not factoring in) the $5 trillion in loans on the books of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac that they will in all likelihood have to "guarantee". That does not bode well for the future strength of the USD.
    Anyway, you deserve kudos for a nice piece of business journalism. This is the kind of info that every investor should have before taking a position. Just curious. What is your take on the commodity supercycle theory? Jim Rogers feels we are still years away from a peak but as you probably have read recently we have an awful lot of critics and naysayers who believe "it's over". If it is indeed over it will have been the shortest commodity bull market in history. Does not seem very likely does it?
    Thanks for your solid contribution to the debate.

    Yank     Reply
  • commenter
    sadpuppy2
    Aug 09 10:15 AM
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    The gentleman wrote "grammer" - so I wouldn't worry too much about his critique of your spelling. Great article - thanks for writing fast and getting it all down.

    So to summarize - yes, but not yet?     Reply
  • commenter
    Edward Hugh
    Aug 09 03:42 AM
    My Website
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    Hi there,

    "Good work. Bad spelling and grammar. Takes away lot of credibility."

    Well thanks for drawing this to my attention. I freely admit I write too much, too quickly, and too badly. But these are very pressing times.

    On the other hand, are you seriously suggesting my growth forecast on India is suspect simply because I can't spell?     Reply
  • commenter
    Edward Hugh
    Aug 09 03:40 AM
    My Website
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    Hi GPS and Andyn,

    I recognise your point about about the political process. I cannot offer myself as a political commentator I'm afraid. All I would draw attention to is the fact that your politicians are hardly worse now than they were five or six years ago, so they are really already "factored in" to the growth process.

    Also, of we look at the so called BRICs, for all the scepticism in Brazil and India, and all the undoubted corruption in Rio de Janeiro and New Delhi, I would say both countries are streets ahead of China and Russia looking forward. This is what the Economist calls the "democracy put". The two of them may wobble from time to time, but they are hardly going to either fall apart or have economic melt down, which has to be a risk in either the Chinese (melt-down) or Russian (fall apart through ethnic in-fighting) cases.

    But the big point I would stress here is my projection on the underlying growth momentum (which is due to the relative weightings I give institutions and demographics in my growth model). I would seriously suggest that most analysts are seriously underestimating the long term growth rate India can achieve without hitting capacity constraints. I think we will hit double digit growth either late 2009 or early 2010.

    Now that oil is dropping back the money is already starting to trickle back into Indian equities.

    The following, as reported in Bloomberg yesterday, is also very good news:

    <i>Brazil and India were the biggest users of offshore oil rigs in July as Petroleo Brasileiro SA drilled the Americas' biggest discovery in three decades and Reliance Industries Ltd. started developing a coastal field. Brazil deployed 29 rigs, the most in 21 years, and India, the largest user of rigs in the Asia-Pacific, ordered 28, adding two since June, Baker Hughes Inc., the world's third- biggest oilfield-services provider, said on its Web site today. The countries accounted for 18 percent of equipment used to drill in waters internationally, excluding the U.S. and Canada.</i>

     Reply
  • commenter
    S Gangadhar
    Aug 09 12:23 AM
    The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
    I congratulate Mr. Kumar on writing such a wonderful assesment of Indian economy. He has the courage to call a spade a spade. I also disagree completely many views by other readers, who are basically over-optimistic about Indian economy and stocks. I am particularly taken aback by views of Mr. Nagesh and am addressing them sequentially here.
    First he talks about India's GDP growth, but the fact is that this growth means nothing. India may be growing at 7 or 8 percent and yet may end up in a ditch. What at the end of the day means is whether you are able to export more than you import or vice versa. Indian trade deficit is growing at 20% annum. Japanese
    economy is growing at a mere 1/4th the rate of India, but it adds $150 billion to itself every year. That's what counts. The emphasis on GDP is a game for business journalists, the people who don't understand economy and know only to take notes when the real economists speak. So please forget about India's "phenomenal" GDP growth. If GDP growth alone was the criteria, I dole out another another example; even Ethiopia is growing at
    8.4% this year. Does it mean that Ethiopian economy is stronger than all Europe, Japan, and US economies? Ha.

    Mr. Nagesh is also wrong about the corporate tax. Their collections prove nothing. Corporates are experts in running businesses, not in predicting economic cycles or movements of the markets. Having stake in the growth, they are usually blind to what sort of economic situations lie ahead. They feel the growth will go on and on. But this is not the case. There have been busts and busts around the world and the corporates which have been oblivious to them have literally lost their businesses. In the US during 1999-2000 the tax
    collections were strong, and yet the recession followed in the following year.

    Mr. Nagesh's harping on whether 60% or 70% of the Indian population is dependent on agriculture shows that he is just interested in oneupmanship, and has not imbibed the spirit of the article. Would it matter much if whether 6 members or 7 of his family went hungry? Will he argue about the exact number?
    The fact is that every two out of three Indians is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture, and the bigger fact is that most of them are unhappy with the state of affairs. That's what counts most.
    Finally, if he thinks that the government and Indian businesses will give extra filliip to agriculture, probably he has not studied Indian agriculture. Agriculture is the last thing on anybody's mind, a reason why the problems have become so huge, so deeprooted.

    I again congratulate Mr. Kumar on writing a fair assessment on the Indian Economy. He is sending out the most honest views to the world. Kudos
    S. Gangadhar.
    Reply
  • commenter
    Zyx
    Aug 08 10:59 PM
    The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
    A really pessimistic tone, with the viewer missing a sense of balance somewhat. Any positives are being clearly ignored. Like CLH, I see this as a buying signal. Reply
  • commenter
    User 58144
    Aug 08 10:37 PM
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    Good work. Bad spelling and grammer. Takes away lot of credibility. Reply
  • commenter
    andyn
    Aug 08 09:33 AM
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    Excellent article...thanks for the analysis.
    I believe in the Indian market for the long term but as the previous post has mentioned, short term its about the politics.

    If the current Congress party come back to power, its great news.
    If not, the bets are off and might be rocky progress. So wait and watch. Till then, you can dip your toes by buying IBN / HDB on pullbacks     Reply
  • commenter
    gps dude
    Aug 08 07:10 AM
    Outlook for the Indian Economy [view article]
    You miss one crucial aspect.. the political scenario. Elections are due in six-nine months or so, and the two large national parties, that have more or less run the show for the past 11 years are seemingly on a terminal decline. Their place has been taken by a number of smaller regional parties, that have limited experience in governance and a smaller vision. What happens if they come into power ? Reply
  • commenter
    User 240147
    Aug 08 12:52 AM
    The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
    Dear Author,

    I am sorry to differ from your pessimist opinion. Being an Indian I am seeing/feeling the aggressive growth of our country.

    Just by simply having bird view at India you have written like "During past two years the cost of crude imports has gone up from $40 billion to approx. $100 billion - an unaffordable luxury for a poor nation like India"

    You would not have included this line, if you had looked at industry growth of India.

    Please be clear on the messages which you are sending to the world.

    Thanks.     Reply
  • commenter
    Fremont
    Realtor
    Aug 07 12:36 PM
    My Website
    The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
    neither of you addressed what's happenning with Indian's real estate bubble. The Indian real estate market was primarily driven by speculators, financed not by subprime and loose lending standards, but with black money. Does anyone have statistics on how the real estate market is faring and its impact on the GDP growth this year?

    thanks     Reply
  • commenter
    captainjohan
    n
    Aug 07 09:36 AM
    My Website
    The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
    A great pessimist opinion and a great optimist response from nagesh. Reply
  • commenter
    Nagesh
    Mandalik
    Aug 07 09:11 AM
    The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
    I am surprised by your assessment “The Indian economy was always in bad shape”. I do not understand your logic.

    The Indian GDP has grown at over 9% for 4 years in a row. Even after taking into account the impact of the steep hike in crude oil prices(softened recently to $120 a barrel), and the US banking crisis, the average analyst estimates for India GDP growth are pegged at 7.5 to 8% for Fiscal 2009. The Indian economy is on pretty solid ground even when the global economy is challenged. India is partly (not completely) shielded from the weakness in the global economy by the Domestic consumption and savings growth that continue to be strong.
    The Global economy, Crude oil prices, changes in business environment and political uncertainty will continue to have an impact on India’s economy just as it does to any other economy. However, the strong fundamentals of the Indian Economy and its vibrant Corporations and entrepreneurs will be the main drivers that will fuel excellent long term growth.

    Now let us look at the Indian stock market in numbers. Why did the SENSEX fall by 40% from the 21000 level? At 21000 BSE was overstretched in the first place and a correction very much warranted. With the market correction, Sensex today is at 15117. The Sensex is trading at a forward PE of 15X (FY09). The historical forward PE for the Sensex is 14X. However, with the revenues and profits growing at a higher rate than in the past (pre-2003), a forward PE of 16X would be very much justified. So I expect the Sensex to be well past 16000 by April 2009. (Well past 16000 because it will start discounting FY10 earnings by that time)

    Is there a key indicator that the Indian Corporate sector is still doing reasonably well? Corporate tax collections have shown a more than healthy growth of 50% in the first 4 months (Apr-Jul 09) of fiscal 2009(Rs 41,598 crore as against Rs 27,718 crore in fiscal 08). Corporations pay advance taxes based on expected earnings. The net earnings of the SENSEX 30 companies grew by 17% in Q1FY09 with revenue growth of 29% YOY. Corporations

    The importance of agriculture: To put the Indian economy in perspective, the contribution of the major sectors to the Indian economy GDP is as follows: Services 53%, Industries 30%, and Agriculture 17%. Note that Agriculture, where growth has averaged around 2.5% over last several years, accounts for just 17% of GDP today and plays a limited role in overall GDP growth.
    The reason agriculture is very important to India is because about 60% (70% is incorrect) population is dependent on agriculture. Hardship to 60% of the population is indeed very painful. The Indian politicians are very much aware of this challenge and will make all the noises and take dramatic (sometimes incorrect) steps to address the challenge. 60% of votes come from this population; Indian politicians need no bigger incentive to take action!

    TO sum it up, I am confident that the Indian economy and the stock market will provide excellent long term growth and the current drop in stock prices is a great buying opportunity for anyone with a time horizon of over 3 years. The government and Indian businesses would do well to give an extra fillip to Agriculture to make the growth more inclusive.
    Reply
  • commenter
    ARAKHANNA
    Aug 07 08:24 AM
    The Indian Economy and Gold Imports [view article]
    Ironically as soon as you posted the article abt $600 Million was pumped in the stock market in a single day!! Reply
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links: